Wednesday, 17 July 2019

Corbynomics Vs Neoliberalism

A very interesting discussion on Novara Media on Tuesday night. Michael was joined by James Meadway, oft-credited with the heavy lifting regards Corbynomics, and Gillian Keegan, Conservative MP for Chichester. For a Tory to appear on Novara is interesting in and of itself, but how she engages with and tries rebutting James's position is a useful lesson in Tory thought processes. She no doubt genuinely believes that austerity was necessary and worthwhile, and neoliberal economics are the best way to go, but how she defends these positions betrays a certain something. It reminds me of defences of privilege. Anyone speaking up for inequality knows it's an untenable position, but reach for any old rope to try and justify it. Gillian does exactly the same here, preferring to shelter in ideology and occasionally shouting Corbyn! and McDonnell! instead of addressing James's points and Labour's economic programme.

Worth watching.

Tuesday, 16 July 2019

Ralph Miliband on Conservative Parties

Just finished reading Ralph Miliband's (AKA Best Miliband) classic work, The State in Capitalist Society. Partly on the occasion of 50 years since its publication, partly because Alex recently had a show on it, and lastly because of some additional reading concerning the old book on the decline and fall of the Tories. The book plan is coming along nicely and can't wait to start writing properly, though if you've been following my commentary on the Tories since returning to blogging in 2012 you will have a good impression of the lines of argument.

Anyway, reading always partially involves quote mining, so here is what he had to say about conservative parties.

... conservatism, however pronounced, does not entail the rejection of all measures of reform, but lives on the contrary by the endorsement and promulgation of reform at the least possible cost to the existing structure of power and privilege ... conservative parties ... remain primarily the defence organisations, in the political field, of business and property. What they really 'aggregate' are the different interests of the dominant classes. Precisely because the latter are not solid, congealed economic and social blocs, they require political formations which reconcile, coordinate, and fuse their interests, and which express their common purposes as well as their separate interests. These purposes and interests also require ideological clothing suitable for political competition in the age of 'mass politics'; one of the special functions of conservative political parties is to provide that necessary clothing. (The State in Capitalist Society 1969, p.168)

If I get a bit of time, I might write more about Miliband's book at the weekend. Needless to say, it comes highly recommended.

Monday, 15 July 2019

Facing Up to the CHUK Up

Writing at the beginning of the month, I hoped never having to put pen to paper, or finger to key, about Change UK and their progeny ever again. That was a bit of a fib, because there are few things more joyous than picking over the carcass of an arrogant, bankrupt project doomed to failure at the outset. Told you so ain't big, ain't clever, but it's always good for a laugh. Having written more times than I care to link to about the prospects of a new (self-defined) centrist formation, it was clear they risked getting pulled under by the eddys of turbulent politics because a) they did not understand Corbynism, let alone the political world as it exists in 2019, b) assumed a mass constituency for centrism was out there gagging for representation, and c) lacked the first clue about organising a party. Therefore after the crashing and the burning I approached this piece from Gavin Shuker with some interest. How do the CHUKs, now spread across three parties, make sense of their failed enterprise?

In a flourish of nonsensical boosterism any ex-Trot would be familiar with, despite the failure of Change UK, our Gavin says "that we pulled that off [i.e. the formation of a new organisation] was a testament to the desire of millions of people, feeling as politically homeless as the MPs that jumped, for something hopeful." Um no, Gavin. Getting a few like minded parliamentarians together and having a press conference is no more an achievement than registering a company, or putting a leaflet through someone's door. Had CHUK launched, immediately set about recruiting hundreds of thousands of new members, and struck a chord in the country at large then your project would have been a "testament" to "the desire of millions", instead of an escape pod for a bunch of useless scabs.

He goes on, acknowledging CHUK was ground down by forces much greater than it but aren't, by themselves, capable of solving the Brexit thanks to the move to four-party politics. Well, that is debatable and is likely a transitory moment - all the polls save YouGov are suggesting movements away from it, but even so. Why did CHUK fail when the discredited and disgraced Liberal Democrats surged instead? Why did the shiny, new centrist project come unstuck despite attracting greater media coverage and the yellow party went home with the bacon? Apart from being "premature" (an act of hubris no less, says Gavin), having a daft logo, and splitting the remain vote are the reasons. The real reason, of course, is that the LibDems are a proper political party with deep roots, a campaigning profile, and persistence over time. CHUK was and is a fly-by-night vanity project for a bunch of careerists without careers, and the electorate ignored them accordingly.

With a complete inability of getting to grips with his own failure, Gavin hits his stride when occupying the only territory that elicits passionate politics from the Labour right: attacking the left. Jeremy Corbyn is evil as that Panorama attests. And from his position as a former member of the party's elite, stuff like reselections, member input into policy, and introducing more democracy and accountability into the party means "the shutting down of democratic processes and debate". Hmmm. Gavin really needs to stop mistaking Twitter for the Labour Party.

Nevertheless, he does make an interesting a point eventually. He acknowledges that Corbynism is now much stronger in the party than when the parliamentary party pursued its coup against the membership. And unless Labour MPs do something, Corbyn could - horror of horrors - gain more seats like last time and perhaps even form a government at the next election. "If you're going to stay and fight", chides Gavin, "you're actually going to need to do both". Ouch. All putative Labour rebels need are 52 MPs to launch a new leadership challenge, and Gavin signs off with the challenge: "History is not just shaped by action, but by inaction as well."

What to make of this? Gavin and his mates are last night's chip paper. Well, all except for one, of course. They have no power nor influence save whatever friendships they've salvaged with the backbench grey blurs of the Parliamentary Labour Party. And, while Gavin has the political sense of an amoeba, he does have enough of a clue to realise a rebellion of Labour MPs in 2019 has no chance of removing Jezza. Corbynphobic MPs realise it too. They know if they make a move, they might as well head to the railway station and buy themselves a one way ticket on the deselection express. No one wants career suicide, so they're content to let the cold coup rumble on in the hope they can survive the trigger ballots, the next election, and make some sort of life for themselves after Jez steps down. Labour MPs know this, we know this, and Gavin and his sad little squad know it too. Which makes his pleading all the more desperate and pathetic. The whole article is a valedictory wail of despair. Our would-be rebels cannot save their skin, and in their hour of need they cling to the delusion that Corbyn can be forced out and the CHUKas be let back in, job for life restored. That Gavin Shuker chooses to humiliate himself in this way shows that perhaps the penny has finally dropped. Sad for him and his ilk that no one cares.

Sunday, 14 July 2019

Which Pollster to Believe?

Polls can be confusing. Let's consider two from the end of this week. According to the latest from YouGov, the Tories lead on 24%, the Brexit Party on 21%, Labour on 20% and the LibDems 19%. We're still very much in four-party territory and the crisis of the two-party system we entered into after the EU elections hasn't gone away. But if you look at Survation's latest, we find a different story. Here, Labour is on 29%, the Tories 23%, BXP 20%, and the LibDems on 19%. Who's right, and who should we take with a pinch of salt?

There are two ways of looking at this. We can compare the polling with recent findings from other companies, and we can look at the methodologies employed. Looking at the mood music coming from other pollsters, only one other has been out out recently and that was from BMG Research. It had the Tories on 28%, Labour 27%, LibDems 18%, and BXP 14%, and its fieldwork was done the week before last. Not much to go with then. One might suppose a drift away from four-party politics over time since the EU election lies a month or so behind us, and the underlying political economy that gave us the 2017 election result hasn't gone away, but equally one could counter that the tedious Tory leadership election and the total dominance of everything by Brexit ensures the parties defined by the referendum - the LibDems and BXP - remain viable options. The fact two polls support the first proposition while another provides succour for the second mean neither position can be affirmed with any confidence on the basis of numbers alone.

We're going to have to look at methodology then. The case for YouGov is of all the polling outfits, in the run up to the EU elections they were consistently the outliers. For instance, in the last round before polling day YouGov had Labour on 13%, the Tories 7%, LibDems 19% and BXP 37%. In the event they massively overestimated Nigel Farage's party (it got 30.5%) but were the closest on the other parties. Compare this to Survation (23%, 14%, 12%, and 31% respectively) and BMG (18%, 12%, 17%, and 35%). YouGov come away smelling of roses and proved outliers aren't always wrong. And yet, if we wind time back a little bit, in GB-only polling for the 2017 General Election YouGov tanked with a 42% Con, 35% Labour eve-of-poll forecast, BMG 46% vs 33%, and Survation 41% vs 40%. BMG was nowhere, YouGov closer on the Tories, but crucially Survation was almost on the nose for Labour's vote.

To make sense of this we need to remember that the EU elections are second order elections. In political science terms, these tend not to matter so much to voters vs first order elections: i.e. ones that determine the government, a general election. And so we see a number of effects: turnout is usually depressed, and punters are more likely to stray from their normal voting behaviour and vote as a protest or go for a party closer to their political heart's desire. It's something we see in every by-election, be it parliamentary or for the local council, and certainly helped explain the result in Peterborough. There is also another oft unremarked effect. We know older people generally speaking are more likely to turn out than the young, with pensioners the most likely of all. This is doubly the case when it comes to second order elections, so it tends to skew toward their proclivities. YouGov polling weights its results to recognise this differential turnout by age, hence we find their massive overestimation of BXP's vote but an accurate forecast of Labour's support. Survation tend not to weight theirs in the same way, which meant they were more sensitive to the movements of younger voters in 2017 and more or less on the money.

What does this mean for Westminster intention polling now? Well, it all depends on what the next general election is going to be like. As Boris Johnson is odd on to win the Tory leadership, we know what his strategy is: ramp up the Brexit rhetoric, dribble some drivel about patriotism, and try and remake the coalition of voters Theresa May pulled together by squeezing the Brexit Party. This is not without difficulties and, if you want to be mischievous, it more or less amounts to a 35% strategy - just enough to get over the line in the context of a split electorate. But by pursuing a polarising electoral strategy, despite the usual tricks, Johnson runs the risk of uniting voters behind Jeremy Corbyn which, among other reasons, is what happened last time. When turn out is up, the differential age effect is depressed, which favours Survation. If the public look disengaged and nonplussed, then YouGov's methodology and polling has more chance of being right. Our job then is to mobilise, mobilise, and mobilise. An election could only be a couple of months away, and Johnson is both a known quantity and completely beatable.

New Left Blogs July 2019

Another trickle of new blogs have come my way this last month, so why not take a look? It shouldn't really need saying, but a mention doesn't necessarily mean political endorsement. Right, without further ado:

1. I. Kosigan (Twitter)

2. PCS Broad Left Network (Twitter)

3. The Overtake (Twitter)

If you know of any new(ish) blogs and podcasts that haven't featured before then drop me a line via the comments, email, Facebook, or Twitter. Please note I'm looking for blogs that have started within the last 12 months or thereabouts. The new blog round up appears when I have enough new blogs to justify a post!

Saturday, 13 July 2019

Gauntlet II for the Nintendo Entertainment System

How do you replicate the table top role playing game experience on computers, game consoles, and arcade machines? In the early 1980s this was a question many a game designer, programmer, studio and software house grappled with. Some went about it with the semi-faithful rendering of RPG mechanics, involving character generation, levelling and experience, and random monster battles part-based on numeric attributes. Others decided to dispense with this completely. One stand out title in the latter genre, and a precursor of the loot 'em ups that came later was Atari's Gauntlet and its sequels.

The principle of Gauntlet and the imaginatively-titled Gauntlet II, which is our concern for this evening, is simple. You or a bunch of mates pick one character class - a warrior, a valkyrie, a wizard, or an elf - which have their own unique abilities, just like the player character system from jolly old Dungeons & Dragons. The warrior is hard and one-shots everything, the valkyrie has the best armour and soaks up damage, the wizard has the best magic (who'd have thunk it?), and the elf zips along and a nifty pace. And what do you then do with these abilities? You're dropped into a dungeon packed with ghosties, ghoulies, and other unsavoury denizens of the dank and the dark and, well, you kill them. Each level is premised on finding the exit but between it and you are potentially hundreds of enemies. Each monster type have spawning locations that vomit forth the nasties until the player destroys them. Failure to do so can easily result in your being swamped by dozens of enemies at a time. Of course, some are more dangerous than others. The most annoying are the grim reaper-types who can only be offed by magic potion. If you haven't got one, they'll latch on and drain away your energy. Not helpful. As a nod to its D&D inspiration, this is represented by a number instead of a bar. Nevertheless, each level has its attractions too. Some are straight forward, some involve a bit of exploration and nous to work out how to proceed to the exit. Even better, there's plenty of loot to be had along the way. I don't know what it is, seeing as you don't get rewards or extra energy for racking up the points, but once you're in the game and a treasure chest is there you feel compelled to pick it up. But also there are potions, food, special abilities, and keys that open up new areas of the map. It gets to the point that it almost feels like cheating if you head to the exit without taking a proper look around the level.

That's Gauntlet pretty much. The original coin-op was followed in 1986 by its sequel, which made it to the mighty NES in 1990, four years after its release. And as renditions go, the publishers, Mindscape, made a good effort. The title screen looks bland, but all told the essentials are there. The new power ups the sequel added, the bits and pieces of speech, the multiplayer facility and, crucially, the gameplay is here. But it is not perfect by any means. There is something slightly off about the player character hit box which occasionally makes it very difficult for you to go through a narrow gap in a wall. Not handy when your life is always counting down and a few nasties are on your tail. And unlike the arcade and other 8-bit versions, the NES is unable to pull off swarming properly - it slows right down, it flickers, it positively groans if too much is happening. It means you never really get the fear of being overwhelmed making it, to be honest, fairly easy. This is aided and abetted by a couple of cheats - if you stand still and don't do anything for a while, all the hidden entrances open up, and wait that bit longer all the walls turn into exits. Still, on the plus side there are 100 levels to get through, but with a twist. There are actually 130 levels in the NES version, but each time you play it selects a different hundred for that particular session. Plenty for Gauntlet fans to get into then.

What else can be said about Gauntlet II? Each level may differ and some are tricky to get through, but this is hardly cerebral-tickling stuff like its RPG forebears. Which is fine, but the action is not of the compulsive kind. There might be some completionist satisfaction to be had in playing until all 130 levels have had a visit, but to be honest we're not talking massive variety here and all too often they're fairly forgettable. Which is the problem when, truth be told. The action is this simple. Nevertheless, it still obeys the logics of neoliberal subjectivation we see in other video game RPGs. The whole loot thing is truly accumulation for accumulation's sake. Running round looking for food and potions, which boost the shrinking stamina point meter, is more accumulation with a purpose. But the constant ticking down of the meter is the in-game rendering of the old time-is-money adage. You're forced into constant cost/benefit decisions. Should you explore the level a little more to try and grab the food or the energy potion, or will you expend more stamina points doing so than you can possibly gain?

Also interesting is how the best character, by far, is the meaty, muscle-bound warrior dude. In the original D&D, the four human character classes truly balanced out strengths and weaknesses. Warriors were good in a fight, Magic Users had magic, Thieves were handy for lock picking, trap avoidance, and sneak attacks, and Clerics were a good mix of fighting ability and magic. In Gauntlet II however, the system breaks down. To get through the level and keep the monsters well away you need to be able to kill them and their spawning locations quickly. The problem is the non-warrior classes take multiple shots to off monsters, which makes you more vulnerable to attack. Moving quickly, being able to soak up more damage, having better magic, this is hardly compensation for a dungeon crawler based more on brute strength than the old noggin.

Is Gauntlet II worth a go today? Certainly. As a slice of history and precursor to today's dungeon crawlers, it shows where many contemporary game mechanics first had a proper airing. The game is very pick up and play friendly too, and can be a good laugh with other players (it supports up to four), but do not expect to find a gem that will hook you in and let you go. At its release it didn't offer a deep experience, and even less so today.

Friday, 12 July 2019

Boris Johnson Meets Andrew Neil

Who tuned in tonight to watch Andrew Neil grill Jeremy Hunt? Not me. As he's not going to win, there's little point dwelling upon his interview. Tonight then was all about Boris Johnson. Did we learn anything new, or were all our preconceptions reconfirmed?

We know from decades of suffering this oaf how he elbows his way into the centre of attention, and through a series of studied ruses not only monopolises it but manipulates the situation. As Hunt observed in a rare moment of insight during the ITV debates earlier this week, Boris Johnson will make you smile and while you're laughing you've forgotten how he didn't answer the question. That might work with the less experienced interviewer, or a one shot questioner in a press conference, but in a half hour sit down with the country's fiercest politics inquisitor?

Andrew Neil started off softly, asking Johnson about his character and whether he could be trusted. Perhaps expecting something a bit tougher, Johnson rejoined that there were no trust issues. He has fantastic conservative policies, which he will deliver - this is the judge of character that matters most. It was here Johnson floated one of his favourite policy themes - policing. The Tories think they have Labour on the run thanks to the increase in violent crime in London, something they (and Donald Trump, of course) are keen to hang on Sadiq Khan. Neil gave Johnson space to discuss how crime fell during his tenure as Mayor, and thus the trap was sprung. While crime fell by a fifth in the capital between 2008 and 2016, Brillo observed that it fell by 26% in the rest of the country, so why was the Johnson administration less effective in getting the figures down? Not surprisingly, there wasn't an answer. The man who would be Prime Minister lost his balance and never recovered.

Returning to the theme of character, Brillo asked why he didn't stand up for the UK's Ambassador to the US, Kim Darroch, whose withering diplomatic cables on the Mickey Mouse White House were published this week, and whose leaks are now subject of a police investigation. Indeed, returning to the ITV Debate Neil drew attention to the fact he was asked four times to offer Darroch his support and failed to do so. Johnson tried his damnedest to weasel his way out by saying "I support the principle of civil servants saying what they need to", which of course, is a manner of evading the question. Neil then put it to Johnson that he was actually happy to see the ambassador out because he had previously berated Jeremy Hunt for backing Darroch. Asked if he accepted the argument Johnson's refusal to back him contributed to Darroch's resignation, he had the chutzpah to claim the "job of politicians to stick up for civil servants", and that it was not right to drag someone's career into the public domain. The evasion of responsibility continued when quizzed about Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. Readers will recall how, because he hadn't read his briefing notes prior to a stint in front of the foreign affairs committee, his claim she was teaching journalism rather than simply holidaying, which was actually the case, has cost her an extra five years in prison. Johnson did his typical "you're exculpating the Iranian regime, it's all them" and rejected any suggestion he had any kind of responsibility for her fate. Needless to say, Neil berated him for making a bad situation worse.

Moving on to Brexit, Brillo asked if there was a deal in the offing prior to the Hallowe'en deadline and needed a few days over to finalise it, surely he - Johnson - would not walk away. His reply, which was unconvincing, went "we definitely come out", but we'll definitely have a deal by then anyway. Asked about his opposition to May's deal, Neil asked if Johnson would back it if all that was done was a change to the Irish backstop. Cue the full majesty of Johnson's Brexit fantasy. He said he would argue for the future of the border getting remitted to the free trade agreement he wants to negotiate with the EU. But, as Neil observed, the backstop is a fallback, a precondition for negotiations, a determination of what the UK/Ireland/EU relationship would be in the event of trade negotiations failing, an insurance policy. Damningly, it appears Johnson hasn't got his head around this very basic fact of Brexit. Which is why, by way of a miserable response, he said Neil was offering "defeatism and negativity" and what the negotiations need is "new optimism". And you thought Theresa May was bad.

One of the big fears of a Johnson government is his closing parliament to get a no deal Brexit through, something Rory Stewart (remember him?) warned could lead ot a civil war situation(!). So Brillo asked Johnson why he won't rule out shutting the doors. "I don't want to do that" snapped back Johnson, and besides, we shouldn't fear no deal. Not only are the preparations in hand, we can leave the EU without a deal and carry on as normal. A deft sidestep away from a tricky issue, but into another sticky one. Trying to look as if he knew what he is talking about, Johnson cited paragraph 5B of Article 24 of the 1994 GATT agreement which allows for the present relationship to remain in place for a decade. This then is Johnson's magic bullet, and assumes the EU would consent because it's in both parties interests. Be that as it may, Neil blind-sided Johnson by citing paragraph 5C, which he didn't know about. Under GATT rules 5B is only possible if there is some form of declaration about a future agreement and a timetable for talks. One would also assume in this relationship the UK becomes a rule taker, and cannot enter into separate arrangements with countries already covered by EU treaties (for instance, the Canadian, Japanese, and recent South American deals), and also it might be challenged by a third party - all good fun for the lawyers no doubt. While Neil didn't raise these complications, to the discovery of paragraph 5C all Johnson could do was mumble incoherently about "BBC-generated gloom and negativity", as if the national broadcaster had a hand in defining the global rules of trade.

Moving to Johnson's spending commitments, Neil observed that Philip Hammond's £26bn "fiscal headroom" for no deal planning isn't money set aside for a rainy day, but cash that can be borrowed according to the government's spending rules. Johnson replied his government would "continue to bear down on national debt, and setting out our plans." This money would be invested in education and the police, and amounts to significantly less than the money the Treasury is prepared to set aside, Johnson smugly retorted. And another trap was sprung. Neil flagged up the £9bn worth of tax cuts he'd promised the wealthiest tax payers by raising the threshold of the top rate, and the £13bn for taking the lowest paid out of National Insurance. It was almost as if Johnson doesn't think tax cuts are spending commitments too.

In all, this was the most dismal performance I've seen from a politician in some years, and it says everything about the state of the Tory party that this poltroon is odds on to be the next Prime Minister. This seat-of-the-pants, half-arsed, drivel-pedalling incompetence should damn his chances. Instead, for the unhinged faithful at home they'll think Johnson did a good job against an interviewer who browbeat him and didn't give him a proper chance to explain himself. The Tory membership might be easily fooled, but thankfully the electorate are not so gullible.

Wednesday, 10 July 2019

The BBC's Anti-Corbyn Hit Job

Panorama, the BBC's premier investigative journalism show comes in two flavours. You have considered pieces, usually but not always focusing on allegations of wrongdoing, that sifts through evidence and builds a case for or against that episode's object of scrutiny. And then you have the lazy hit job that sees testimony and documentation arranged without due space for the right of reply, nor the consideration of evidence that flies in the face of the case. Can you guess which way tonight's Panorama alleging leadership interference in anti-semitism complaints went?

This isn't the first time a political target has been roughed up this way. Indeed, not long after Jeremy Corbyn came to prominence the BBC used Panorama to suggest he was chillaxed with the Iraqi resistance attacking British soldiers, because in December 2003 Stop the War was present at a conference in Cairo that urged resistance to the US/British invasion, and the declaration of said meeting was published on StW's website. As we have seen since, a cottage industry has grown up around guilt-by-association gotchas as far as the Labour leader is concerned, and tonight's show was unafraid of flagging up these links.

What about the substance of tonight's Panorama then? If you can't stomach the full half hour, the BBC have presented their case in written form. And, as it was always going to be, it's pretty thin stuff. We have a complaint that Seumas Milne issued an email our whistle blowers interpreted as an instruction. The email, or at least the bits the BBC chose to quote, say "something's going wrong and we're muddling up political disputes with racism ... I think going forward we need to review where and how we're drawing the line." This seems pretty straightforward and non-controversial. Because anti-semitism simultaneously exists in the party and is a factional football, there are going to be real and vexatious complaints. And how do we know distinguishing between the two was the intent and nothing more sinister, as per Panorama's insinuation? Why, you can read the full, undoctored quote from Seumas's email for yourself.

We heard the old canard that staff from the leader's office interfered in the complaints process, suggesting it was improper for workers to be seconded to the department. This has been floated many occasions over the last couple of years, and has almost become a sub-genre of grumbles in and of itself. If this separation of personnel was to be strictly maintained at all times, why did our disgruntled Labour staffers regularly email Laura Murray, now head of complaints, then LOTO staff, asking for advice about cases? Indeed, Sam Matthews - one of the complainants in tonight's programme and the source of the above claim against Seumas Milne - was one of those who approached him for advice in the transition period between general secretaries. It's a measure of polemical rather than investigative intent that this went unsaid.

It goes on. One Kat Buckingham says she was stuck between an "angry and obstructive leader's office" and the disciplinary process itself. That may as well be, but what this "obstruction" was is unclear. This, like may other moments of pure conjecture, were left hanging. Which is exactly what you would expect from a hack piece. Establish the case early on, and let the narrative flow away from evidence to insinuation. A dishonest approach to journalism you would expect from the Sun or the Mail, not the supposedly world class BBC. These moves were repeated to pad out the programme too. At one point, in reference to the party investigation of goings ons in Liverpool Riverside CLP, quotations appeared on screen. "Every Zionist is a target" went one. "Every Jew is a Zio-fascist" said another. Very well, but we are not told what the source of these quotes were. Are Labour Party members responsible? In the context of the broadcast it was a device used to establish that an atmosphere of hostility and anti-semitism pervaded the CLP, of the sort of remarks we're led to expect were commonplace and were aired without challenge.

Similarly, the testimonies of Jewish members were left to float without context and response. I do not for one moment doubt their experiences, and it is appalling that anyone would feel unwelcome in the Labour Party because they're Jewish. Nevertheless, where our interviewees were not citing party meetings some remarks were left vague.Did they involve Labour Party members? Are we talking about real life or social media? And we do not know if those party members who did engage in such behaviour subsequently had action taken against them.

Another of the so-called smoking guns was Jennie Formby's "interference" in the case against Jackie Walker, who was slung out earlier this year for bringing the party into disrepute. According to Panorama, our General Secretary is damned by her emailing "The National Constitutional Committee cannot be allowed to continue in the way that they are at the moment and I will also be challenging the panel for the Jackie Walker case." Indeed, prior to Jennie's appointment the NCC - incidentally, not then under majority left control - had sat on the Walker case, leaving it to fester and give off the impression the party was not handling complaints. What her intervention amounted to was an expediting of the complaint, and a NCC panel that ... expelled Walker. The General Secretary got on with the job she was appointed to do, and finds herself on the receiving end of a bad faith attack for clearing up a running sore.

As Louis Althusser noted in an entirely different context, silences can be as significant as the spoken or written word. Sometimes more so. And what do we find missing from this piece of trash? Well, we don't hear tell of how the previous General Secretary, Iain McNichol, completely failed to grasp the anti-semitism problem - even though he was interviewed by Panorama and was in position for the first three year's of Corbyn's leadership. Why does he escape criticism when the backlog, who sundry MPs have dishonestly laid the leader's office, happened on his watch? If there is a perception the party is tardy when it comes to handling allegations, he is the one who allowed it to happen. And if this was a genuine investigation of anti-semitism in the Labour Party, perhaps some focus on the period prior to Jennie Formby's appointment is in order?

The strategic silences do not end there. How about the revelations former members of Labour staff deliberately sat on, delayed, and "lost" complaints about anti-semitism to damage the party? This is not conjecture; the evidence is available thanks to email chains curiously not seen by the BBC.

Overall, this was a poor piece of journalism. It was pure hackery. If Dan Hodges made documentaries ... But again, it's part of a piece. That the BBC is biased is beyond reasonable doubt, but it is tilted against what it defines as the fringes and nods toward the permitted ground of establishment reasonableness. It's why the SNP, Nigel Farage, George Galloway, and the BNP have all had the sloppy take down treatment in the past. However, with Jeremy Corbyn and the left-led Labour Party, this is all ramped up to ten. Every Labour dispute commands disproportionate coverage, every time Tom Watson undermines Corbyn the BBC cameras are ready, anti-semitism gets more broadcast traction than Tory racism, and now an hour-long documentary at the behest of disgruntled former employees less than forthcoming about their experiences working for the party. The BBC's traditional defenders - the left - wouldn't mind if there was parity and honesty in the coverage of Labour's difficulties. There are problems with anti-semitism, and it has proven very difficult sorting it out. But the BBC are not acting as an honest broker and are as guilty as those Labour MPs who see anti-semitism less a problem in and of itself and more an opportunity to take down the party's leadership. And ultimately, when the day of reckoning comes for the BBC, thanks to their shitty behaviour they will no longer find its traditional supporters willing to defend it.

Monday, 8 July 2019

The State in Capitalist Society

In the latest episode of Politics Theory Other, Alex interviews noted socialist thinker Leo Panitch about the work of Ralph Miliband. As always, it's well worth a listen.

As always, the podcast needs you support to keep it going. Please consider donating.

Sunday, 7 July 2019

Why is the Tory Leadership Contest So Bloody Boring?

Here's the state of play in early July. We have a Tory leadership contest seemingly careening toward no deal which, to be blunt, will be the biggest preventable peace time disaster in British political history. Yet scrutiny of the candidates is superficial and interest in the contest is warned off thanks to its being mind-crushingly dull. It hasn't captured the public's imagination, and even when you tune in to 24 hour rolling coverage you get the sense of a story featured out of obligation than "newsworthiness". Even those habituated to the plod and grind of everyday bourgeois politics would find more jollies in a mini-fridge instruction manual.

Politics is institutionally boring, and its marrying to arcane ceremony works to make it unappealing. It's almost as if it's a deliberate ruse designed to exclude, alienate, and ward off mass participation. Politics however shouldn't be more entertaining. After all, fascism, among other things, is said to be the aestheticisation of politics, and its reduction to celebrity over the course of the last decade gifted us the hilarity of Boris Johnson and the you-can't-say-that conceit of Nigel Farage. But as the stakes in politics have intensified and the issues have sharpened, so establishment politics has become even more boring. Which the Tory party contest exemplifies.

Consider earlier, happier, less fraught times. How does the leadership campaign now compare to this century's contests? The first contest for the Tory party crown was, on paper, an interesting one. It featured Ian Duncan Smith, Michael Portillo, Ken Clarke, David Davis and Michael Ancram, all of whom variously represented different wings of the Tory party. In a bit of a shocker, IDS beat Portillo by a single vote into the final round, which he then went on to win by a country mile over cuddly Uncle Ken. Nevertheless there was some consideration of what the party should be: an explicit europhobic outfit (under IDS) replete with all the nasty stuff the Tories are associated with, or something a bit more liberal and centre facing. The party membership then weren't as psychopathic as today but the temptation of embracing euroscepticism and the perception it was a real vote winner proved too much for some. Come 2003, IDS as the most ineffective Tory leader then seen was out and Michael Howard was effectively appointed unopposed as his replacement to lead the party into the 2005 election. Following a fairly dismal showing on the second worst turnout for a century, the next contest, between David Davis and Dave, was interesting from the standpoint of Tory strategic thinking. At this point Dave was at pains to paint himself as a liberal, light touch Tory chillaxed with modern Britain and a seeming determination to turn the party away from its Europe obsessions. Meanwhile, DD promised little beyond the red meat offering of IDS, except with added bastardry. On this occasion, the shrinking membership went with pragmatism. After all, a centrist makeover did Labour no end of good, so why not the Tories? Ken Clarke and the disgraced Liam Fox were eliminated in short order and Dave romped home with a two-thirds landslide.

Then came Labour's turn. In 2007 Tony Blair made good on his long-announced departure and vacated the leadership. However, Gordon Brown believed the big job was his by right and moved heaven and earth to ensure no one stood against him, and that virtually the entire PLP nominated him as Blair's successor. John McDonnell, who announced an abortive challenge never had a chance of getting on the ballot paper, while Brown completely disingenuously welcomed the opportunity of a proper election he knew was not going to happen. Then in 2010 we had a summer-long contest with David and Ed Miliband, Andy Burnham, Ed Balls, and Diane Abbott (there was some behind the scenes jiggery-pokery between John McDonnell and Michael Meacher, which meant neither stood). While it didn't set the world alight, Diane's programme and Ed Ball's technocratic anti-austerity platform arguably ensured Ed Miliband's campaign positioned itself in soft social democracy territory to scoop up these votes. And, for the headline writers, there was a rich vein in the sibling rivalry angle. Nevertheless, not spotted by anyone at the time (ahem), Diane actually came third in numbers of raw votes cast suggesting the left were not quite as dead as was supposed. Skipping five years forward Labour crashed and burned, and the next leadership contest was gearing itself up to be the worst in Labour Party history. That was until Jeremy Corbyn got on the ballot and, very quickly, all hell broke loose. The same was true of the following summer. Unreconciled (and still unreconciled), the PLP majority's cold coup went hot and we had an entertaining summer of socialist politics vs nob gags. Meanwhile, the collapse of Dave's premiership was accompanied by the spectacular implosion of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the death-by-media car wreck of Andrea Leadsom's campaign and Theresa May's seemingly effortless coronation. How the Tories then amused themselves at Labour's expense, not at all realising there was a ticking time bomb of incompetence and inflexibility at the heart of their creaking operation.

When these leadership elections weren't entertaining, in the narrowest sense of the word, they did at least allow politics to come out into the open. The two Tory leadership elections of the 00s covered strategic issues and wrestled with how to overcome an unpopularity that was almost a structural feature of British politics. For Labour, 2010 was about how to rebuild an electoral coalition after an extended but bruising period of government, and 2015 and 16 about what kind of party it should be. With the Brexit stakes incomparably higher than these considerations, which, you'll remember, is simultaneously an existential crisis for the Conservatives, it's almost as if efforts to keep the Tory party leadership election a boring non-event that downplays the urgency of the moment. Even when Johnson and Hunt flag up and, for party selectoralist reasons, talk up the possibility of no deal it comes with a shrug of the shoulders. What would be a disaster, which in his honest moments Hunt acknowledges, is smoothed over with nods to managerialist preparation and patriotic boosterism.

Therefore Brexit is suppressed not so much as an issue but as a danger. Talking it down as a brewing crisis is a deliberate strategy on the part of both leadership contenders to allow themselves to shine. Despite the rather colourful beginnings of the campaign, Johnson has allowed the much-aired revelations about his private life, political (racist) opinions, and total incompetence bounce off by being simply boring and not doing anything. While not saying much of substance while touring the home county tea rooms, and avoiding as much scrutiny as possible until most ballot papers have been returned, it has allowed his outriders to cop the flak and make the case (he's funny! He can win!). And Hunt too is complicit in this. He has flip-flopped all over the place when it comes to Brexit, moving within a fortnight from a pragmatic consideration of the Hallowe'en deadline in light of a renegotiated deal to hard ultra Brexit, and the annexation of the Irish Republic to solve the backstop issue. At one point he might have looked vaguely threatening to Johnson's chances, but as the contest wore on and with the weary inevitably of the latter's victory growing ever more obvious, Hunt has been forced into making hysterical pronouncements about Brexit while pulling his punches. He doesn't want to damage Johnson too much or criticise him too harshly because, well, he has a career to think about. And he knows, he feels it in his gut, that strong words can easily float over to the other side of the Commons and be weaponised against the Tories in the event of an election. Pathetic really that the Tories have a thing or two to teach certain Labour MPs and their hangers on about how you do solidarity.

Why then is the Tory leadership contest more snore than cor or phwoar? Because both contenders are reluctant to face up to the seriousness of Brexit, particularly Johnson, and so downplay it without having to account for their lackadaisical attitude. Because as prep up until the moment Johnson crosses Number 10's threshold he's playing a super cautious game without saying much - something we'll probably see again if/when he takes the Tories to the country. And because for self-interested reasons, Hunt isn't about to rock the boat. Given the gravity of the situation, the politics of the Tory leadership election, its coverage, and its manipulation by both candidates fall far short of addressing the serious hole the country is in, let alone offering ways out. It's a failure that may damn them in the history books, but leave the likes of you and me having to pay the price.

Saturday, 6 July 2019

Friday, 5 July 2019

Woe, Jeremy Corbyn?

Party like it's March 2017! Everyone's got it in for the Labour leader these days. The same people are making the same whingeing noises we heard in 2015, 2016, and early 2017, coincidentally. Corbyn's weak, Corbyn's indecisive, Corbyn's incoherent, Corbyn should be 20 points ahead in the polls. Politics may change, but the script never wavers. This week, the Graun have three entries in the genre. Rafael Behr reckons Corbyn is proving to be a drag on Corbynism in all sorts of areas. For Polly Toynbee, Labour are tanking because it has spent too much time fretting about its Brexit position. And to put the boot in, Corbz didn't do Glastonbury this year because he'd get booed. Who knew his 2017 one off came with the expectation of a residency?

Of course, matters at the moment are less than ideal. If history was guided by reason, the Tory vote would have splintered under the impact of their Brexit crisis while Labour enjoys a commanding lead, comfortably ahead thanks to the powerful coalition of voters built at the last general election. But because we don't inhabit a fantasy world, criticisms of Corbyn - of which Behr and Toynbee's are typical - take issue with the fact we don't. Sometimes, you could be forgiven for thinking the only people who believe the magic grandpa stuff are his detractors. Meanwhile, the vote shares of the main parties have collapsed and politics resembles something like the first round of French presidential elections, with four viable contenders duking it out. The question is could Labour have avoided this by moving its Brexit position?

Possibly. There is a conspiracy theory in some centrist and left wing circles that Corbyn is either a secret Brexiteer, or is imprisoned by a shadowy cabal of lexit-loving Stalinists. If they didn't have any influence then all would be good. As here as per all conspiracy theories, reality is somewhat more complex. The two stubborn facts that just won't go away are a) remain lost the EU referendum and, by a narrow margin, the electorate voted to leave, b) a third of Labour's support Brexit. The conclusion flowing from this is since socialism and democracy are inseparable, setting aside the referendum result is anti-democratic and can store up big trouble for political legitimacy later on. The position of Corbynism in government when it faces the inevitable opposition from capital is more secure if democracy is on its side. Therefore the reason why Labour's default position is for a Brexit deal is principled and practical, and would also be the case if someone else was leading the party right now, whether they were planning on a transformative programme or the tepid miserablism of meagre amelioration. Labour, like all parties, make certain adaptations to political realities: there's no need for idiotic conspiracism to explain its positioning.

And so there has been a change and Labour's position has shifted. This year Corbyn has either sponsored or supported four Commons votes on avoiding no deal, avoiding May's damaging deal, and backing a final say referendum on any deal. Either the leadership are trying very hard to conceal their Lexit preferences, or their position is shifting as the facts change. However, the reason why we're at this four-party impasse is because of an over stress on the politics of 2017 - that were possible because Brexit was temporarily negated as an issue - were found wanting once the Brexit process entered its most acute, crisis phase. We entered the EU elections as if we were approaching a general election. The responsibility for this lies with the leadership, but the reason why it failed has a number of other authors.

Back in October, I got some stick for suggesting the so-called People's Vote marches constituted a bourgeois social movement. Not because they were "inauthentic" or astroturf, but because they were organised and run by elites who determined the speakers and the political colouration of the campaign. Seriously, who but a Westminster insider with no life beyond SW1A thought Alastair Campbell fronting it up would be a good idea? Within these elite circles there were some for whom their Europeanism was a handy for driving a wedge between Jeremy Corbyn and the remain sympathies of the Corbynist base. Some Labour MPs, some of them on the left, campaigned away for a second referendum or their remain and reform position, and others did so entirely cynically. How curious it is to find the party's deputy leader keeping the attrition of the cold coup (© @CatherineBuca) going with a sudden found enthusiasm not for a second referendum, but for a hard remain position. Nevertheless, renegades are gonna renege, and useful idiots will idiot, so perhaps the aftermath of that march was the point to stress the final say aspect of Labour's conference position. It would have looked like the party was bowing to popular pressure, and might even have offered some opportunities to not appear bloody minded about going for a deal first. Because we didn't, hard remain was allowed to fester in the party's ranks and support without a political answer. And, by accident and design, helped work that wedge in by opposing Labour to a final say, and effectively conniving with the Tory right and Nigel Farage to ensure Brexit is the only issue that matters.

The consequences of political actors can only go so far explaining the apparent disintegration of Labour's vote. Tom Watson does not have super powers. The other problem is the demobilisation of the vote. Corbynism is a movement that's most vital when it's in motion. 2015 and 2016 did the business of building and consolidating the base, and 2017 was its successful and audacious bid to hegemonise millions of people, which is what it did. But movements don't last forever, and mobilisation is never permanent. It settles down and life goes on until next time. Since the election, and despite the burst of creativity and activism around it, Corbynism in the main has settled into an abeyance of sorts. Despite attempts at pushing outwards into community organising, the support are mostly quiet and are spectators as parliamentary shenanigans and the endless anti-semitism scandal play out. Internal elections and mobilising for mandatory reselection in 2018, and upcoming selections will excite some members, but it's not the stuff out of which mass mobilisation is made. And without the coherence conferred by focus, collectives tend toward disaggregation and dispersal. Therefore Brexit politics, which lends itself to simple pro/anti- positioning, offers a point of attraction from the humdrum of commons manoeuvres and the dispiriting, energy sapping rumbling of racism.

It is difficult to see how this could have been avoided. The problem of political education is largely unaddressed, and while vitally necessary its impact on demobilisation would have mainly had party proper rather than periphery (voter) effects. Likewise, even if the narcissistic left had put the collective good before themselves, and not spent the last year baiting other lefts, we'd still be in the same position - albeit with a little less online rancour and not as much of a stain on the party's character. However, the core component of Corbynism - the activist membership - would be more united and, dare I say it, more cheerful, and better able to cope with these challenging circumstances.

However, politics moves quickly. If the Labour vote can apparently disintegrate in the face of a second order election, can it reassemble just as rapidly? Yes. The relationship between voters and parties are more transactional than was previously the case. The days of triangulating because your core has nowhere to go are done, and that applies just as much to the Tories as it does Labour. Once a general election is in play, other issues grow in salience, but while Brexit becomes one (albeit strong) issue among a handful of others, Labour's recovery is not a foregone conclusion. Yet neither is its failure.

This brings us back to the ostensible star of this piece. Oh Jeremy Corbyn, or woe Jeremy Corbyn? He's been written off more times than Boris Johnson's debts, but those who obsess over his flaws forget his appeal. Corbyn wasn't put at the top of the Labour Party twice and got more votes in 50 years than any Labour leader save Tony Blair in 1997 because of a cult-like following or messianic appeal, but because he personified a set of suppressed but attractive values, and had the policies to back them up. Despite the best efforts of his PLP and press enemies, that remains the case. And at the next general election, which is likely to be very dirty indeed, we will be reminded that Corbyn the campaigner is a very potent focal point for the movement that bears his name.

Wednesday, 3 July 2019

The Next Tory General Election Campaign

When an unnamed senior civil servant briefed the press that "we" were concerned for Jeremy Corbyn's health and he might be too frail for the rigours of office, three things immediately came to mind. I was touched, positively moved that Whitehall mandarins fret about the wellbeing of the Leader of the Opposition. There's professionalism, and then there's going the extra mile. The second was how ridiculously desperate the powers that be are to avoid a Jez-led Labour government. Of course, there is a ridiculous pretence in British politics that the civil service are neutral, and anyone can form a government and the machinery of administration will grind into action whichever way the Prime Minister decides to set it. Nice if it were true, but it's not. Attempts to reset and remake the state and redress the balance of power in the British economy will meet ruling class resistance from business, from bosses' organisations, and from within state institutions themselves. It's not for nothing that Papa Miliband, in his last book, argued the fist job a socialist government should attend to was a round of redundancies as far as the state's upper echelons are concerned.

And the third? We're going to see more like this in the next general election campaign.

It's true, we don't know when the next one's going to be. It might be Autumn. It might be next year. It might be 2022. But we do know it will follow past strategies to an extent. Over the course of the last weekend, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt have been spraying about cash around like confetti. Money is no object when it is deployed for self-serving ambition - it's only a problem when you want to help people. Yet there still isn't much of a clue about how it can be used to float Tory boats. Johnson talks about giving public sector workers a pay rise, as if a modest sliver of cash can make up for past pay freezes, or the memory of working in run-down services and the uncertain stress of facing the threat of redundancy. Hunt thinks writing off student loans for successful new entrepreneurs will get young people onside. Whichever flavour of PM we get, there's little either can offer that can appeal to a broad coalition of voters. Which is why they might not bother, and try and build something around a right-populist core of no deal Brexit. Which, if not Hunt's approach, is certainly looking like Johnson's.

When we look at how Dave and Theresa May built their 2015 and 2017 coalitions, they were able to exploit two things, albeit with different results. In 2015, the character assassinations on Ed Miliband were about establishing him as weird, weak, and in the pocket of the Scottish nationalists. In 2017, May monstered Corbyn as a man who, um, wouldn't incinerate millions and wanted to spend money on fixing public services. In both cases they tried making the election an issue of character - in Ed's case, a PM who would sell out the country and break up the union, and in Jez's someone who'd turn the place into the GDR. And on this basis, they would inculcate fear. For Dave, Labour was coming for people's houses via the mansion tax and would let the deficit balloon out of control. And a Corbyn government would pave the way for Russian tanks rolling down The Mall. Hate and fear, these are staples not just of the Tories here, but of so-called centre right parties the world over. America, Canada, France, South Korea, all in some way try and establish an illegitimate but indelible link between their political opponents and an existential threat.

We can imagine how this might look in the hands of Boris Johnson: a mix of bumbling and red baiting and Brexit betrayal, you could almost write the ha ha hilarious script for him. But there is something else we need to think about. While all Tory campaigns exploit fear and loathing, they don't always do so in the same way. And we saw a permutation on this theme recently in Australia. Here, we almost had a replay of our 2015 general election. The Liberal Party's Scott Morrison played up a Dad-next-door persona vs Labor's (apparently) uncharismatic Bill Shorten, and it was fought on a presidential basis. The Liberal-led coalition emphasised their economic competence over Labor's tax and spend, and ran a targeted and tightly disciplined campaign. And here came the something new. Rather than promising anything, Morrison's coalition gave next to nothing away - apart from some last minute tax cuts. By way of contrast, Labor were policy heavy and spoke about their manifesto at length. While this was a tremendous boon for Labour in 2017, for Labor in 2019 the right, having no policies to offer or defend, simply attacked, attacked, and attacked again. Labor's policies were front and centre during the election, but it was their costs and practicalities that dominated. And with the Liberals offering nothing it was difficult to make return attacks stick - especially so as the right wing press are so much more dominant than here.

Now, this isn't the main reason Labor unexpectedly lost, but it certainly helped firm up the coalition's coalition. However, given the close relationships between British and Australian politics, particularly on the right, could we see this 'do nothing, attack everything' approach imported to these shores? Arguably, we already did with Dave's deficit determinism (making it, I guess, an export), but with a Tory party bereft of ideas and faced with Corbynism it could be tempted to have a go: a couple of modest and relatively non-threatening policy items, and nothing but attack lines. Nevertheless, the Tories are disadvantaged in a number of significant other ways. The electorate is likely to become more, not less polarised with Johnson in charge, and no doubt Labour will dust down those unused referendum posters with Johnson in Nigel Farage's pocket. This is also a party with a record, and a miserable one at that, and also a party being harried from the right - assuming there is no Tory/Brexit Party accommodation (then the poster comes in doubly handy). And crucially, while the press are still a power in the land it is, like the party they tend to support, in long-term decline.

In short, we know what's coming. Scaremongering, character assassination, relentless negativity. You cant say you haven't been warned.

Tuesday, 2 July 2019

On the Brexit Party Protest

They might turn their backs when Ode to Joy is played, but they certainly won't turn their backs on the salaries, perks, and very generous expense accounts. Nevertheless, the Brexit Party's miserable stunt in Strasbourg earlier can be considered an unqualified success. It led the news across all channels, upset swathes of people they like upsetting (liberals, centrists, leftwingers), and no doubt provide for a frisson of smug satisfaction among the BXP fraternity sat at home. Indeed, in another context and with quite different politics involved, the likes of Nigel Farage and his right wing cheerleaders might call it an example of virtue signalling. For instance, I wonder what they made of Liberal Democrat MEPs who sat there during their silly little protest wearing 'Bollocks to Brexit' t-shirts?

Yes, it was disrespectful of EU institutions, and yes it does remind the bloc of nations of how petty minded and unserious the UK can be. A reminder set to be repeated once Boris Johnson is installed in Number 10 and tries negotiating his fantasy land Brexit deal. But in and of itself, there is nothing inherently wrong with parliamentary protests, and trying to present BXP as illegitimate because they've clowned around in one (what they call "cheerful defiance") is short-sighted and daft. So folks trying to draw links between BXP and the Nazis by drawing parallels between today's antics with Nazi deputies turning their backs to the Reichstag speaker in 1926, aren't terribly helpful. It certainly drives outraged tweets to outraged audiences and reminds them of how awful Farage and his private, limited company are, but it's not about to make anyone change their minds and their votes.

Far from there being nothing wrong per se with protests in parliament, there is something of a tradition of them in this country. Last June, the SNP walked out en bloc in protest against John Bercow's decision to bar Ian Blackford from parliament for the day. Lloyd Russell-Moyle, John McDonnell, and Michael Heseltine(!) respectively interrupted proceedings by half-inching the mace. As lately as April, members of the public glued themselves, semi-naked to the security screen. Fathers 4 Justice famously lobbed a powder bomb at His Blairness as he stood at the despatch box, pro-hunt protesters stormed the Commons, and most spectacularly of all lesbians abseiled into the House of Lords back in 1988 protesting against Section 28. Whether you agree or disagree with the causes protested, they are part of the warp and weft of democratic politics and a reminder it is always something more than votes and speeches.

The truth of the matter is efforts to delegitimise BXP as a political actor is going to have to come from somewhere else. They got the highest vote during the EU elections, and that is legitimacy enough for its supporters. Appealing to an imagined shared reverence for constitutionalism isn't going to cut the mustard among people for whom it assumes zero importance. It means being creative and thinking about who its base are and the interests it articulates. If we can understand them, then we can beat them.

Monday, 1 July 2019

Five Most Popular Posts in June

What posts tickled the fancy of you, the most fickle of publics during the course of June? Well, here's where you find out.

1. Corbynism and the Second Referendum
2. Bye Bye Change UK
3. Obsolete Politics and the Socialist Party Split
4. On Tory Party Psychopathy
5. Your Hot Take on Peterborough

Matters of Corbynism's continued health rise to the top of the most viewed pieces this month. And quite rightly so. When polls since the EU elections consistently report politics at the moment is between four parties, we need to have a think about how we got here and how to get beyond it. Pretending it's just a blip and everything will right itself in time is the most useless complacency, frankly. Speaking of complacency, it's all over bar the inevitable election defeats for Change UK. Hopefully I'll never have to write about this bunch of losers ever again. Then my quick overview of the crisis in the Socialist Party/Committee for a Workers' International helped pull in the lefty trainspotter audience, and this was followed by an examination of the collective psychosis gripping the Tory party membership. What a time to be writing a book about their decline and demise, eh? And last of all some ruminations on the Peterborough by-election result which was, supposedly, the Brexit Party's contest to lose.

Well, next month we can look forward to a new Conservative Prime Minister. We also get to find out how many members the Tories have really got, so that will be fun. And there's the small matter of ramping up no deal Brexit preparations as Boris Johnson, for surely it shall be he, is prepared to break the economy and sacrifice other people's living standards for the continued viability of his party. All the fun things, then.

Sunday, 30 June 2019

What I've Been Reading Recently

We're at the half-year mark, which means three months have passed by since last time. And so, for no reason in particular, here's what I've got through during the last quarter.

Kill All Normies by Angela Nagle
Corbynism: A Critical Approach by Matt Bolton and Frederick Harry Pitts
Foundation and Empire by Isaac Asimov
True Blues by Paul Whiteley, Patrick Seyd, and Jeremy Richardson
Glamorama by Bret Easton Ellis
Imperial Bedrooms by Bret Easton Ellis
Edgework by Wendy Brown
Injury Time by Beryl Bainbridge
Leviathan Wake by James SA Corey
Hawksmoor by Peter Ackroyd
The Posthuman by Rosi Braidotti
Great Expectations by Kathy Acker
Displaced by Stephen Abarbanell
On Populist Reason by Ernesto Laclau
The Stories of Eva Luna by Isabel Allende
The Timekeeper by Mitch Albom
Crowds and Party by Jodi Dean
Dan Leno and the Limehouse Golem by Peter Ackroyd
Caliban's War by James SA Corey
Jeremy Corbyn and the Strange Rebirth of Labour England by Francis Beckett and Mark Seddon
The Idea of Communism edited by Costas Douzinas and Slavoj Zizek
Bastard Out of Carolina by Dorothy Allison
New Faces of Fascism by Enzo Traverso
Devolution and the Scottish Conservatives by Alexander Smith
London Fields by Martin Amis
American War by Omar El Akkad
The Portrait of Mr WH by Oscar Wilde
Digital Citizenship in a Datafied Society by Arne Hintz, Lina Dencik, and Karin Wahl-Jorgensen
Leninism and Western Socialism by Roy A. Medvedev
The Fatal Tree by Jake Arnott
Waiting for the Revolution edited by Evan Smith and Matthew Worley
Anna by Niccolo Ammaniti

No commentary on anything I've read this time, unfortunately. Getting struck down with norovirus isn't conducive to much in the way of thinking! So what have you had on the go these past three months?

Quarter Two By-Election Results 2019

Overall, 139,438 votes were cast over 68 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison you can view Quarter One's results here. Please note four seats were contested for the first time.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q1
+/- Q2 2018
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         68
35,872
   25.7%
  -0.1%
  -10.7%
   528
    -4
Labour
         61
38,151
   27.4%
 +0.3%
    -7.7%
   625
    -5
LibDem
         57
26,986
   19.4%
  -2.1%
   +1.7%
   473
   +5
UKIP
         20
 5,600
    4.0%
 +2.0%
   +3.3%
   280
   +1
Green
         28
 9,128
    6.5%
 +2.1%
   +1.5%
   326
     0
SNP*
          3
 5,969
    4.3%
 +2.7%
   +3.1%
  1,990
   +2
PC**
          2
   241
    0.2%
 -1.3%
   +0.2%
   121
     0
Ind***
         32
12,972
    9.3%
 -1.3%
   +6.4%
   405
   +4
Other****
         16
 4,519
    5.2%
 -0.3%
   +4.2%
   282
   +1

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were four by-elections in Wales
*** There were seven independent clashes this quarter
**** Others consisted of Women's Equality Party (71, 41, 53), People Before Profit (151, 218), Democrats and Veterans (13, 28), Christian People's Alliance (52), Anti-Cuts (91), Citizens First (45), Tunbridge Wells Alliance (1,088), Upminster and Cranham Residents Association (2,421), British Union and Sovereignty Party (165), Socialist Labour Party (56), For Britain (14), Libertarian Party (12)

Once again, there isn't a great deal one can say. As by-election tallies tend to be flatter than the national polls, it's interesting to see that, for a change, the quarter's results are bucking polling trends. However, this can be explained by only having one month's data point (June's) that reflect the new reality post-European elections vis a vis Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but then again this can also be put down to the ward profiles of the seats that were up. We're going to have to wait and see if what's happening at national level will stir the depths of local elections.

Also interesting is UKIP's best result for quite some time. As the Brexit Party don't contest local elections (yet) they are no doubt benefiting from an anti-EU vote, but nowhere near as much as one might expect. If Farage gives the nod to his minions to start contesting local elections it will be interesting to watch how much the Conservative vote is hit.