John Healey's Little Budget

Apart from stiffing recent graduates and dragging more people into higher tax bands, Martin Lewis was quite pleased with John Healey's budget statement. Which fits the label Aditya Chakrabortty applied to it: this was a budget to please everybody's favourite money expert. But what about the politics?

This was far from the big offer Andy Burnham sold during his Labour leadership conference speech. Of the 10-year plan, there was nary a sign. Instead, this was a tinkerer's budget but one designed to land with a minimum of fuss. For example, £100 for everyone in council tax bands A to D to offset the projected hundred quid rise in the energy price cap will be appreciated. The scrapping of the standing charge and absorbing it into gas bills is redistributive in intent, and ticks the fairness box with those consuming the most expecting to pay more. Though pensioners dependent on heating and larger families might not be as sanguine. Likewise, taking tariffs off selected food products will save a few coins here and there. One not likely to make much of a difference to household budgets, but a decent indicator that the government understands cost of living pressures and are being seen to take action.

If, however, one's budget earns an item of praise from Kemi Badenoch then something has gone wrong. In her reply to Healey, she welcomed his abandonment of efforts to equalise the minimum wage. In Tory land, fairness means you're less entitled to the same standard of living if you're under the age of 21. For the Conservative leader, this is something business has been lobbying for and will boost hiring rates and tackle the so-called NEET crisis. Will it though? What drives hiring are markets, the conditions determining whether hiring new employees offers a profitable return. Age wage differentials offer marginal help to small and medium-sized businesses. It's big business that would pocket most of the savings, and so won't do much if anything to lower the rates of younger people signing on. The more serious political problem for the chancellor is the freezing of the threshold for student loan repayments. Over 21s working full time on the minimum wage will now be liable for repayments, a true giveth with one hand and taketh with another measure almost designed to keep the Greens' lead among younger layers a semi-permanent feature of British politics.

The wider politics of this was about keeping British business mollified, and given the endorsements Healey reeled off at the beginning of his speech that mission has been accomplished. The big promises made are light years from the Bolshevist dread that seizes the imaginaries of hyper-class conscious sections of capital whenever the meekest mild social democratic policies are raised. And so this settled jitters, drew sharp distinctions with the recklessness of the Liz Truss budget, made the doom-mongering of the right wing press look ridiculous, and keeps the government on the public's right side.

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Undercover in Reform

If there were doubts about Reform's political character, ITV's undercover documentary has put them to bed. In encounter after encounter, its reporters were witnesses to unprompted, off-the-cuff racism. But we're not talking about the casual dropping of slurs. Instead, a parade of councillors and party officials outlined their elaborate, violent fantasies. Of ripping people from their homes and shoving them in concentration camps, of personally carrying out public executions, of terrorising minorities and enjoying the experience of discharging imagined race war responsibilities. The expose went beyond how Reform cadre break taboos in private. Rather, what we got was fascist bloodlust, a desire by the men featured to commit mass murder because, for their own pathetic reasons, it makes them feel good.

Damning for Nigel Farage and his satraps was not their endorsement of these views. He would never be so crude. But the fact that, despite pledging to "professionalise" the party on many occasions, Reform is an organisation where these sorts of views were tolerated on a don't ask, don't tell basis. Farage himself was willing to overlook the racist attack made on David Lammy by Chris Parry, the then candidate for the mayoralty of Hampshire and the Solent - presumably because he was a rear admiral. But overall, time and again, unapologetic fascists were shown to have sailed through the "vetting", tips were given by party officials on how to circumvent it, and there was more than one case of those dumb enough not to hide racist social media posts being invited to apply again for a local election vacancy. Farage's pledges to clean up his outfit are a sham.

What does Farage gain from attracting these sorts of people to his organisation? Because he knows these are among his core constituency. Reform supporters wouldn't be that upset by the vote-splitting threat posed by Rupert Lowe's Restore if it were otherwise. What Farage gets is a quid pro quo. They do the hard yards of organising the party, of recruiting candidates and sorting out election campaigns, and ultimately putting up the yes men - and they're nearly all men - who'll do Farage's bidding in the council and mayoral chambers, who'll vote the right way in Holyrood and at the Senedd, and will nod through his enabling bill to eviscerate British democracy if they make it to Number 10. And in return, as Farage and his cronies engorge themselves on the not inconsiderable resources of the state, they'll more or less live out their fascist fantasies. Such is the unsaid pact at the core of Reform - something baldly stated in the video, and understood by both parties to the arrangement.

Unfortunately for Farage and Reform, a future where this could be enacted is becoming increasingly far fetched. The schoolboy racism revelations, which have circulated around Westminster for at least a decade, the dodgy finances and possible criminal wrongdoing, the political setbacks, and a Tory party that has, the establishment have decided, made up lost ground, have worn down Reform's fortunes. And Restore are, again, a menacing presence. Their interventions having arguably cost Reform five council by-election victories in October so far. The polling returns have fallen and while they, for the moment, have settled at around a fifth of the electorate at the time of writing, the possibility of Reform reaching much beyond an increasingly boxed-off core has receded. There is, unfortunately, a market for the poison Farage is peddling, but it is out of step with the mainstream majority. And, as such, it remains a base capable of sustaining a few dozen far right grifters, and for feeding and amplifying fascist street movements. But is that enough for a Farage who, for a short time, felt power was within his reach? Probably not.

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Evading the Simple Fact

The Green Party is officially over. Zack Polanski is yesterday's chip wrappings. They, like Reform, are done and we can go back to politics as usual. Such as being captivated by the attempted putsch against Ed Davey. This is the verdict of a swathe of the political establishment following Labour's handy victory over the Greens in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Needless to say, this is just not a credible position.

Looking at the vote, Labour's share more or less stood still - declining from 49% to 45%, whereas the Greens surged from 10% to 32%. Despite reports by politics Twitter personalities that Tories and Liberal Democrat voters were lending Labour their votes following the passing of the Zionism is Racism motion at last weekend's Green conference, their proportions were virtually static - indicating a marginal phenomenon, or an effort at attention-seeking. Determining which from which is up to you. Obviously, this result was helped by the decision of Andrew Feinstein, who came second in 2024, to not stand and endorse the Greens. But some might have expected the Greens to do better, seeing as they were standing their best known public figure.

The reason Polanski didn't doesn't require preternatural powers of divination. Simply, politics has changed. For many Green-leaning Labour voters, their party is on the right track again. Andy Burnham has set out a destination, and enough are convinced that he's sincere about getting there. The polls tell this tale as well. The dip in the Greens' fortunes coincide with Burnham's anointing as Keir Starmer's successor. And it doesn't require any more in-depth analysis than this. When Labour put themselves at odds with the interests and outlooks of its voter coalition, supporters look elsewhere. Commentators will riff off conference motions and Polanski's social media faux pas, but they're playing an establishment avoidance strategy - an effort to evade and not present the simple fact that left wing solutions to problems, even when they're wrapped in soft left clothing, are popular.

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The Clear Blue Water Strategy

The media has told us there was a buzz around Conservative Party conference. Heaven knows why. Kemi Badenoch is riding a wave of positive press for keeping her party together, and the forced consensus is that Reform are finished. You can even pretend this is the case, as long as you don't look at the polls. Badenoch's leader's speech was an easy job then - give the press and political comment enough to meet their expectations and keep the hype train chugging along. And she gave them what they wanted.

If you like, what Badenoch ventured in this speech was something she's kept at arm's length up until now: conservatism. Out was the Tory leader who indulges nativist and hierarchy-of-cultures posturing, and instead she groped toward the rhetorical mean. With leadership on the right against the rising tide of racism having devolved to the likes of Tim Stanley and Jacob Rees-Mogg, Badenoch was keen to contrast her views on identity and nationality with the will-say-anything-for-attention idiocies of Suella Braverman. She said,

I don’t want to live in a country run by people who threaten journalists, call veterans traitors and debate whether my mixed-race children are English. I don’t want to explain to my son when we’re watching our brilliant England team play football that some people don’t think our black players are English. I remember back in the day when Ian Wright and John Barnes were playing, nobody was questioning whether they were English. We certainly didn’t have sitting MPs questioning whether they were English. We must not let these people take us backwards. That is not the country we are. Reform MPs are openly questioning people’s identity. They are not like us; we are not like them. We are different. We are the Conservative Party.

A restatement of anti-racist norms are welcome, but we'll see how long that lasts.

Up until now, the Tory strategy for two years has been consolidate and hold. An approach long forecast around these parts while establishment commentators were still cooing about a Boris Johnson decade. I.e. Following devastating defeat, the Tories would retreat by galloping to the right to keep hold of what they have by gluing their core together with the adhesive of first principles. Unfortunately for them, a simple re-run of the 1997-2005 period was made unavailable by the rise of Reform. So what we had was, in practical terms, an abandonment of Toryism for the authoritarianism and extremism of the further-right. However, never one to go against the Westminster grain Badenoch is on board with its recent conclusion that Nigel Farage is over. So apart from admonishing Reform for their nativism and a few swipes at the chaotic and corrupt character of the party, Badenoch's speech pivoted away from trying to out-right the extreme right to a clear blue water strategy. That is the belief they can claw lost ground directly back from Labour with something resembling a traditional Tory programme, and not worry so much about the right flank. Hence big ticket items like scrapping inheritance tax on people's homes up to £1m. Badenoch described this as relief for "middle class families". Other goodies were extending free childcare to those on incomes over £100,000/year, building new prisons, cutting employers' National Insurance contributions for young workers, taking the shears to red tape, scrapping environmental protections, more money for bombs and bullets, it's the same old Tory pitch. And compare this with her comments about Andy Burnham, whom she accused of "facing the past", damned him for serving in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet, was guilty of, horrors, socialism; and mocked him as the "Paddington Bear Prime Minister". What, he likes marmalade?

Her knockabout and Punch & Judy style made for a strong contrast with Burnham's speech, geared as it was around conciliation and cooperation with a strong flavour of Labourism. A tone those she's seeking to influence, reportedly middle class Liberal Democrat and Labour supporters, are likely to take a negative note of. But, really, is this a pitch likely to peel them away from their current affiliations? There was no recognition of the problems facing the country, nor any understanding of how/why Tory support collapsed, let alone addressing its continued long-term decline. This was a blue water speech, yes, but one very much framed by the priorities and stakes of the Westminster/lobby/right-wing media complex. As such, Badenoch can campaign on these priorities as much as she likes. Undoubtedly, the Tory leader will be applauded for doing so. But that's not the same thing as posing Labour a credible threat.

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Five Most Popular Posts in September

Here we go, here we go. The countdown of the posts that did the business on this here blog last month.

1. Labour's Far Right Failure
2. 25 Years
3. The Null Montie
4. Holborn and St Pancras: Two Observations
5. Andy Burnham at Labour Party Conference

For all of Labour's turn to the soft left, the Keir Starmer continuity prevails in the government's response to the far right's provocations. And that's what made number one in September. It's almost as if Labour hope they'll go away by treating them as a species of apolitical thuggery. Following on was an observation or two about collective memory on the quarter century since the 9/11 terror attacks. In at three was the resignation of Tim Montgomerie from Reform. Which proivided a nice opportunity for a meditation on their recent downturn. Snapping at its heels was a quick look at some of the drivel written about Zack Polanski's candidacy at the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. And squeaking in at the end was Tuesday's quick impression of Andy Burnham's conference speech.

I was hoping to churn more commentary out last month, but as an officially middle-aged person on an indefinate course of medication, that has not improved the desire to post. Even if I'm feeling inspired. So we'll be sticking at the reduced rate for the forseeable. Still, things I'd like to turn out this door in October is a bit more of an analytical reflection on Burnham's speech and Labour strategy, and something about the Tories as they gather for their conference this weekend.

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Andy Burnham at Labour Party Conference

There was something for almost everyone. Andy Burnham's speech at Labour conference was what most of the party's voters were hoping for. It began with a restatement of ambition on housing - more leaseholder reform, a curtailing of right to buy, greater local authority powers over private rental, and the option of expropriating slum landlords and empty houses. Reducing deposits to 2.5% for new builds for first-time buyers, which was pre-announced at the weekend, sounded like it could have been pinched from a Tory prospectus.

On water, there were more hazy promises of "public control". But this time there was more flesh on the skeleton. Repealing the Thatcher-era ban on taking water into public ownership is a symbolic gesture, as that could have been dispensed with by any legislation that took a water company back into state ownership. In the forthcoming water bill, there will be greater oversight and powers of intervention devolved to mayoralties. Bonuses for failing bosses will be stopped, there will be tougher consequences for failure with nationalisation being the ultimate sanction. Something Thames Water customers are likely to welcome. On energy, more home-grown renewables and domestic nuclear is to be encouraged, the unveiling of a national energy grid plan with local input, a new state-owned company called Great British Grid will be launched to enable its renovation, and market reform is coming - above all the speeding up of disentangling energy prices from gas prices.

Burnham moved on to care. Recalling his grandmother's experience with the care system, and the work put in by his late dad's care givers he said, with some emotion, that "I want to speak directly to our care workers: you are not invisible to me." And drawing attention to how the industry has been variously neglected by successive governments, he said "I am sorry my profession has let down yours for so long". The national care service was revisited, and he defined the vision as "person-centered high quality care service that starts in the home", according to the principle of everyone contributes, and everyone is covered. There will be no care charges taken from the basic state pension, and the idea is that people won't find their savings eaten up by escalating costs. Burnham said this would be as significant as the foundation of the NHS.

How to pay for it? The scrapping of the triple lock on pensions was trailed heavily before the speech, and when it came its replacement sounds very much like ... a double lock. The link with earnings after 2030 will be dropped, and instead the state pension will rise with inflation or 2.5%. Though Burnham strongly implied it will retain a relationship to wage levels. Eh? It sounded a bit of a muddle, and it's not clear how this would save money that would be ploughed into the care service.

On young people, there was the usual nod to parity of esteem re: academic and technical routes in education. There's also to be a stronger emphasis on comprehensive education as a means for securing the future. Likewise, his remarks on foreign policy were brief and offered no break with the established way of doing things - Russia, bad; Iran, bad; Palestine, two-state solution.

And rounding the speech off, Burnham riffed off the theme of fixing our broken politics. He said he would work cross-party on as much of his programme as possible, but noted how the Westminster system is the root of much of our problems. Referencing the possibility of a "divisive government" being elected on under 30% of the vote, he announced a national commission on electoral reform with an invitation to all parties to contribute. He also said the next Labour manifesto would have a clear commitment to changing the system. And from here, he moved on to Brexit. Unlike Keir Starmer who wouldn't touch the issue with a barge pole, Burnham was repeatedly scathing about its consequences. He went on to say the upcoming UK/EU summit will be an occasion for laying out the country's long-term relationship with the EU, and he will offer some options for structuring it. A code, as if it needed spelling out, for putting rejoining the EU back on the table.

Burnham began his speech saying it wasn't going to be a traditional conference speech. And really, it wasn't. There was no point scoring against the opposition parties. No lame jokes tied to cheap shots. It was, unusually, an address aimed at Labour's former coalition outside the hall. Everything here, the promise of breaking with 40 years of neoliberalism, the "rewiring of the state", fixing the foundations of British capitalism, the ambitions for the National Care Service, electoral reform, and a closer relationship to the EU, it was taking up the mantle of modernising the state and putting the country on a new trajectory. That's the promise, and - as we have seen - the record since entering Downing Street has been more mixed. But politically speaking, this was crafted to consolidate centre left and left voters, including not a few centrist voters and those on the soft right that like the idea of national renewal and EU alignment, behind Labour. If Burnham follows through and this programme is visibly making headway by the next election, then he may well get to oversee the fruits of his 10-year plan.

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Quarter Three 2026 By-Election Results

This quarter 158,122 votes were cast in 82 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 44 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter Two's results here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Q2	+/- Q3 25	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	81	28,039	17.7%	+0.1	+1.1	346	-3
Labour	69	30,666	19.4%	+5.5	+2.3	444	-3
Lib Dem	70	22,932	14.5%	-4.6	-2.4	328	+5
Reform	82	35,832	22.7%	-4.6	-4.2	437	+7
Green	67	21,776	13.8%	-2.1	+3.7	325	0
SNP*	5	5,030	3.2%	+2.4	+2.0	1,006	0
PC**	12	3,870	2.4%	+1.0	+0.1	323	-1
Ind***	34	6,409	4.1%	+0.4	-3.8	189	-3
Other****	27	3,566	2.3%	+1.7	+1.4	132	-2

* There were five by-elections in Scotland
** There were 14 by-elections in Wales
*** There were nine Independent clashes
**** Others this quarter were Alliance for Democracy and Freedom (28, 12, 12), Christian People's Alliance (37, 12), Communist Party of Britain (46, 22), Edinburgh & East Lothian People (78, 9, 7), Horwich and Blackrod First (1,186), Monster Raving Loony (13), Nottingham People's Alliance (523), Residents for Uttleford (138), Restore (284, 218, 98) Scottish Family Party (73, 54, 38), SPGB (6), TUSC (56, 36), Workers Party of Britain (466, 58), Your Party (45, 11)

Last quarter, Reform posted its lowest share of the popular vote since Q1 2025. Except on that occasion the party was on the rise from a low base and now, it appears, the fortunes have turned against it. Nevertheless supporters can console themselves with the largest net gain of councillors and winning most ballots. But for how long? Elsewhere, the Burnham bounce worked its magic on Labour's vote and stymied the catastrophic loss of seats. Compare this quarter to Labour's miserable record this last year. The Tories are less certain. The press like to talk about recovery, but by-election results suggest torpor. But with Reform's difficulties, they're at least well-placed to profit from them.

Speaking of the next quarter, only October's contests are locked and loaded. But if past behaviour is any guide to future behaviour, with over 2,000 councillors the chaos and fallings outs that are more characteristic of Farage's retinue than the other parties, the party can be expected to "enjoy" some awkward by-elections. Alongside the usual pattern of resignations and defections. Unless Labour right royally screws up, as long as they retain their current polling lead then local by-election retention will improve. Who knows, a net gain of councillors before Christmas?

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Local Council By-Elections September 2026

This month saw 48,753 votes cast in 20 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 11 council seats changed hands. For comparison with August's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Aug	+/- Sep 25	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	20	8,908	18.3%	+4.0	+3.0	445	0
Labour	19	11,250	23.1%	-1.8	+8.7	592	0
Lib Dem	17	5,885	12.3%	-2.7	-3.9	346	+1
Reform	20	8,138	16.7%	-11.8	-9.2	407	+3
Green	18	9,553	19.6%	+9.4	+5.9	531	-1
SNP*	3	3,313	6.8%	+6.8	+5.2	1,104	-1
PC**	1	329	0.7%	-0.8	-1.8	329	0
Ind***	5	428	0.9%	-1.7	-8.6	86	-1
Other****	14	949	1.9%	-1.1	+1.1	68	-1

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were no Independent clashes
**** Others this month were Alliance for Democracy and Freedom (28, 12, 12), Communist Party of Britain (46, 22), Edinburgh & East Lothian People (78, 9, 7), Scottish Family Party (73, 38), TUSC (56), Workers Party of Britain (466, 58), Your Party (45)

What a messy month! Conservatives: gained two, lost two. Labour: gained two, lost two. Greens: gained two, lost three. And on top of that, there's the weird Reform result. They retake the month's by-election crown with most net gains, but their vote has slewed away and have turned in a performance much worse than their current polling figures. Meanwhile, the Greens played musical council chairs with the Tories and Labour, but recorded their best ever vote tally and came second. Pure chaos.

Reform's slide is consistent with the party's downward trajectory, but this doesn't signal curtains any more than their trailing in the polls by two or three points do. It's a matter of geography. Labour are recovering in the polls. The Tories have inched forward from their doldrums, but ultimately a disproportionate set of by-elections took place on terrain not as congenial for a strong return for Reform. It's as simple as that. Ditto for the Greens too. They suffered some poor results this month, but they polled strongly in areas where they are strong. A decent comparator will be next month, where Reform are defending four seats and are fielding candidates in wards friendlier to them. If October's result hovers around September's figures, then they're in worse trouble than the polls suggest.

2nd September
Stroud, Kingswood, LDem hold

3rd September
Edinburgh, Portobello/Craigmillar, Grn gain from SNP
Edinburgh, Southside/Newington, Lab gain from SNP
Oxfordshire, Chesterton & Launton, LDem hold
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Llantwit Fardre, Con hold
Somerset, Frome West, Grn hold

10th September
Manchester, Burnage, Lab hold
North East Derbyshire, Eckington South & Renishaw, Ref gain from Lab
North Somerset, Hutton & Locking, Ref gain from Con
West Suffolk, Haverhill West, Con hold

15th September
Bassetlaw, East Markham, Ref gain from Con

17th September
Charnwood, Wreake Valley, Con gain from Grn
Sheffield, Walkley, Lab gain from Grn
South Lanarkshire, Avondale & Stonehouse, SNP gain from Ind

23rd September
Tunbridge Wells, Cranbrook, Sissinghurst & Frittenden, LDem gain from Oth

24th September
Brighton & Hove, Queen's Park, Grn gain from Lab
Cotswold, Blockley, Con gain from Grn
Milton Keynes, New Bradwell, Lab hold
South Staffordshire, Wombourne North, Con hold
Windsor & Maidenhead, Bray, Con hold

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