What Was the Point?

Across the land, grass has withered and died under the relentless glare of the burning sun. A climate catastrophe to be sure, but one that serves as an apt metaphor for the travails of Nigel Farage. At least as it exists in his and Reform's political imaginary. Instead of a drought, this was supposed to be Farage's evergreen summer. A hapless Prime Minister in office, racist pogroms to egg on and exploit, immigration to bang on about, and an establishment stitch up re: the parliamentary standards investigation to cry over. The master plan in forcing the by-election was about crushing the other parties, cementing Farage as the enfant terrible of British politics, and recapturing a sense of momentum - something that has been lacking, despite handily winning May's council elections in England and giving Labour a drubbing in the Senedd election. As we know, the one thing this elegant demonstration of 11-dimensional chess did not factor in was the refusal of his opponents to play ball. Instead, Clacton became an irrelevant sideshow of Farage vs a large field of "comedy" candidates, independents, and an oil slick of fascists hailing from tiny groupings and one-man bands. Small wonder he cried off giving a victory speech.

A Count Binface victory would have been funny, and driven a stake through Reform from which it would never recover. But this was never a serious proposition. On a reduced turnout of 44%, which is down on the general election but is roughly the kind of reduction one normally expects from a parliamentary by-election, Farage was able to poll 63.3% of the vote. An increase of just over a 1,000 ballots in raw vote terms on 2024, but proportionally a 17-point gain. Most politicians would be happy with that, but Reform's most enthusiastic supporters would have hoped for an even more emphatic win. Especially up against unorganised opposition and a cadre of joke candidates. Also interesting was the shrinkage of the right bloc in Clacton, as noted by Luke Tryl. It's almost as if their kind of politics are in long-term decline, or something. Count Binface also made history, ensuring immortality in the footnotes of political science journals. Not only was his 26.9% the highest ever polled by a spoof candidate in a UK parliamentary by-election, he's the first to hold on to his deposit.

On reacting to his win, Farage said the result "spoke for itself" and was open about not wanting to be pictured alongside his opponents. And then, because there's never not an opportunity to inject grievance politics, a Reform spox said Farage stayed away from the count after police had warned that there was a credible threat of disruption. Something Essex Police have denied.

What now? In the immortal words of Theresa May, nothing has changed. The standards investigation into Christopher Harborne's £5m "gift" restarts, which is likely to result in a suspension and another by-election in the Autumn. If Farage is going to quit politics for the quiet, lucrative life of right wing celebrity, this will be the moment. And the political atmosphere Reform now operate in is not as congenial. The Times-led investigations into the party's funding have severely dented Farage, and are subject to money laundering investigations by the police. Easy mode is no longer available to Farage and friends. They also have to adjust to life under Andy Burnham's premiership. Most polls are now posting modest Labour leads, and the government are gingerly talking about the good things they have done in office. The cost-of-living announcements over the last few weeks, while marginal in the scheme of things, do show a direction of travel to former Labour voters that they approve. On this, Reform has absolutely nothing to say and are out of sorts. This is compounded by Farage himself enjoying the most negative personal ratings of any party leader, and looking ever more shiftier in his efforts at dodging accountability. In all, the Clacton by-election was a waste of time and leaves Reform and Farage in a worse position.

Image Credit

Five Most Popular Posts in July

Time for the monthly duty post! What did the business on the blog during July?

1. The Desperation of Nigel Farage
2. From Brexit to Frexit?
3. Andy Burnham in Downing Street
4. The Political Uses of Ann Widdecombe
5. The No-Hopers Vs Andy Burnham

The difficulties Reform are experiencing came out top of the pops. And as July progressed, the situation got worse. More allegations of law breaking, and a completely cack-handed coping strategy for dealing with them. It's too early to say whether Reform are a busted flush, but they're starting to look that way. And once these investigations reach their conclusions Nigel Farage is going to have a very serious problem. Something plenty reading this will look forward to watching. Also doing well was Andy Burnham - on the occasion of his entry into Number 10, and on the grumbles and complaints about him in the PLP about their new leader. It's cry me a river time for the bellyachers, I'm sorry to say. And wedged between these two are the political uses made of the grim murder of Ann Widdecombe. Yes, there's the obvious victimology Reform have tried narrating and capitalising on. But this piece looks at how her death has been used to buttress the illusio, the oft-unthought ideological assumptions underpinning establishment politics.

The dearth of posting about otherwise significant political events is a consequence, I'm sorry to say, of burn out and a lack of energy to spend most evenings churning out the goodies like I used to. I'm happily reading plenty of interesting things and probably following more political coverage than previously, so the old brain is ticking over. I'm also finding it difficult to articulate how, despite my posts being otherwise down on Burnham, I think there are useful and progressive openings despite the strong continuity in his government. Perhaps in August I might find the words to flesh that out.

Image Credit

Local Council By-Elections July 2026

This month saw 75,444 votes cast in 46 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 22 council seats changed hands. For comparison with June's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Jun	+/- Jul 25	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	45	14,287	18.9%	+3.1	+0.3	318	+1
Labour	34	10,983	14.6%	-3.4	-2.0	323	-2
Lib Dem	39	11,951	15.8%	-3.5	-2.3	306	+1
Reform	46	18,031	23.9%	-0.3	-4.0	392	+4
Green	37	8,756	11.6%	-2.1	+2.6	237	-1
SNP*	2	1,717	2.3%	+1.3	+2.3	859	+1
PC**	10	3,032	4.0%	+0.3	+2.2	303	-1
Ind***	19	5,095	6.8%	+3.0	-1.0	268	-2
Other****	10	1,592	2.1%	+1.4	+1.8	159	-1

* There were two by-election in Scotland
** There were 12 by-elections in Wales
*** There were six Independent clashes
**** Others were Christian People's Alliance (37, 12), Horwich and Blackrod First (1,186), Monster Raving Loony (13), Residents for Uttleford (138), Restore (98), Scottish Family Party (54), SPGB (6), TUSC (36), Your Party (11)

We might have new political realities, but there wasn't much evidence of it looking at this month's by-election results. One would have to look very hard and be smoking something semi-legal to discern the stirrings of a Labour revival. Still, it's early days yet so we'll see if the Burnham bounce works its way down to council level come August. Apart from that, there isn't much to talk about. Reform have contracted modestly, but still come out on top in votes and seats. Talk of a Tory revival at the national level might, on a first look, find some circumstantial evidence to support that here. Yet Tory "success" is by virtue of their brute force approach of standing almost everywhere. A point underlined by Labour outdoing them on vote average per seat. The Greens seem to have stalled, albeit on a vote share not to be sniffed at by their standards. And lastly, Plaid Cymru top their vote share record set last month.

Predictions for August? There are 16 to choose from in a customarily slow month. What makes it interesting is that half the seats are Reform defences, and most of them are in former Labour seats. Could a laboratory have designed a better test for measuring Labour's efforts at clawing back lost ground?

2 July
Aberdeenshire, Peterhead South & Cruden, SNP gain from Con
Bolton, Horwich North, Oth hold
Cheshire West & Chester, Weaver & Cuddington, Ind gain from Con
Cotswolds, Cirencester St Michael's, LDem hold
Dorset, St Leonards & St Ives, Con hold
Gloucestershire, Cirencester Park, LDem hold
Harborough, Lutterworth East, Ref gain from Lab
Powys, Glanwymyn, PC hold
Powys, Llanyre with Nantmel, Ref gain from Ind
Powys, Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew, LDem gain from Con
Telford & Wrekin, Malinslee & Dawley Bank, Lab hold
Torfaen, Llantarnam, Ref gain from Ind

7 July
Surrey, Haslemere, LDem hold
Waverley, Haslemere West, LDem hold

9 July
Camden, Regents Park, Lab gain from Grn
Cardiff, Splott, Lab hold
Flintshire, Argoed & New Brighton, LDem hold
Flintshire, Connah’s Quay, Ref gain from Ind
Gateshead, High Fell, Ref hold
Gwynedd, Llanrug, Ind gain from PC
Lambeth, Clapham Park, Grn hold
Lambeth, Streatham St Leonard's, LDem gain from Grn
Neath Port Talbot, Trebanos, PC hold
North Norfolk, Suffield Park, LDem hold
Pembrokeshire, Pembroke Dock Market, Con gain from Ind
South Lanarkshire, Larkhall, Ref gain from Lab
Stratford-on-Avon, Kinwarton, Con gain from LDem
Vale of Glamorgan, Baruc, PC hold

16 July
Breckland, Dereham Toftwood, Con gain from Lab
Cambridgeshire, Ramsey and Bury, Ref hold
Cherwell, Kidlington East, LDem hold
Norfolk, Old Catton, Con gain from Ref
Peterborough, Fletton & Woodston, Grn gain from Lab
Rushmoor, Wellington, Lab hold
South Staffordshire, Himley & Swindon, Con hold
Stafford, Manor, Lab hold

23 July
East Devon, Exmouth Brixington, Con hold
Medway, Cuxton, Halling & Riverside, Ref gain from Con
South Gloucestershire, Longwell Green, Con hold
Thurrock, Grays Riverside, Lab gain from Ref
Thurrock, Grays Town, Lab gain from Ref

30 July
Bolton, Rumworth, Ind gain from Lab
Eastleigh, Hedge End South, LDem hold
Ynys Mon, Bro’r Llynnoedd, PC hold
South Holland, Long Sutton, Ref gain from Ind
Uttlesford, Great Dunmow North, Con gain from Oth

Image Credit

The No Hopers Vs Andy Burnham

From Andy Burnham's point of view, he couldn't have asked for a better week. His daily list of announcements went down with nmst official politics watchers, leaving those complaining, like the Tories, like the Daily Express, looking distinctly fogeyish. His social media output, particularly his chat with John Healey about pub snacks, also did the business of going viral on Facebook and TikTok. And the reward has been immediate. A +13 for Burnham's personal ratings, which is higher than Keir Starmer ever managed, and the first polling lead for Labour since April 2025. Moreincommon report a four-point advantage over Reform, which is significant seeing as their polling has tended to flatter Nigel Farage in the past. Burnham's team landed the first week then and has offered a pleasing change where Labour's former support are concerned, provided one does not look too closely.

Yet some people are unhappy. Some of them being those people whose services Burnham dispensed with upon entering Downing Street. Starmer got his best press in years as all the tabloids splashed with his relaxed "leaving drinks" at a North London boozer. Putting a brave face on failure, in other words. Others wasted no time briefing their media mates that they're upset and will exact a blood price for being robbed of their ministerial birth rights. Out of the gate first was the recently defenestrated Darren Jones, who criticised Burnham's energy VAT cut as coming from his digital ID card plan ... which was unfunded anyway. What was supposed to be a gotcha moment made Jones look spiteful. And incompetent, seeing as he revealed the project he was managing was but a wing and a prayer.

It's worth noting that there was little to no bellyaching of this character when Starmer made Cabinet an almost entirely right wing affair, purposely carving out those who then had Burnham sympathies. A move that, scant weeks later, caused our former Prime Minister a ripple of embarrassment. Nor is the discontent of the disgruntled likely to make much head way in the medium term. None of them are particularly appealing, have heavily relied on others to do the factionalising for them, and of those among them who engineered Starmer's rise did so not through cunning or manoeuvre but by bare-faced lying.

And why would they want to rock the boat anyway? 379 MPs (95%) of the PLP nominated Burnham as their candidate. Whether motivated by values/policy, career aspirations, or a desire to keep their seat, that's not much for out-of-favour people to work with. Second, we might have had a comms reset. There are new and returning faces around the cabinet table, but politically what Burnham has done has taken Labour back to where the government was before Angela Rayner resigned and Starmer carried out his right wing reshuffle. Yes, he's appointed a couple of Campaign Group MPs to very junior roles, but this is hardly making Leon Trotsky the head of the red army. This is also a government that's just handed the execrable Ian Austin a job. What then is there to be miserable about? Are they upset at the continuity on foreign policy? The continuity on bashing immigration? The continuity of blaming young people for the lack of jobs? I doubt it. The only difference between them and Burnham's team are bruised, overweening egoism, a Blairite fetish for ID cards, and woefully underdeveloped media skills.

This isn't to say opposition won't start emerging in the PLP as disappointment/disillusionment sets in. But what with the policy and agenda and personnel decisions announced so far, a big announcement on sorting out adult/elderly care due this week, a summer tour of Jeremy Corbyn-style public rallies, a welcome and overdue spotlight on Reform's murky finances, and MPs heading off on their holibobs, there's no one around for the out-of-sorts right to listen. And no differences worth stoking a row about. And thanks to their leading positions in the ancien regime, when dissent becomes fashionable again who are going to look at the likes of Steve Reed, Rachel Reeves, and David Lammy and say "Yes! These guys are the answer!"

Andy Burnham in Downing Street

A new dawn has broken has it not? You could be forgiven for thinking these famed words of Tony Blair applies to our shiny new Prime Minister. Outside Downing Street sans the lectern and without the benefit of a crib sheet, Andy Burnham sketched out his plan for his premiership. Tomorrow we're going to see immediate measures to ease the cost of living and set out the direction of travel. Perhaps some of my suggestions might make the cut? This, in due course, is going to be followed by a ten-year plan. But the proverbial rabbit at lunch time was Burnham's pledge on homelessness. Channelling Jeremy Corbyn circa 2019, the first priority will be ending rough sleeping. In short, good speech. Great first impression.

The cabinet appointments were more a mixed affair. Seeing sackings handed out to Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, Liz Kendall, Darren Jones and "resignations" from others, like Steve Reed, were encouraging signs. Unfortunately, that's where the fun ended. Burnham defied the Fleet Street sages who were forecasting Shabana Mahmood in Number 11, and - rabbit number two - out popped John Healey instead. There are several ways the appointment can be interpreted. Unlike Keir Starmer's last reshuffle, that saw all the powerful offices of state filled by empty suits from Blairite central casting, Burnham's cabinet is poised to be more ecumenical in its political colouration. Healey is well-respected across the PLP, so for the operation it's a good "non-factional" pick. Lots of Labour love the military, and his standing wasn't harmed when he resigned as defence secretary over budgetary allocations. The question is what does this mean for the politics? On the one hand, the "surprise" might be suggestive of Burnham wanting a chancellor firmly subordinate to Downing Street. Which is a definite if one is serious about restructuring British capitalism. But on the other, it can suggest continuity. Healey is no stranger to the Treasury and did five years there under Tony Blair. Treasury brain is a thing in British politics, and one that reproduces its institutional pre-eminence in state institutions. Anyone thinking like this is a safe pair of hands as far as the common sense of British commercial and financial capital is concerned.

More continuity is found in keeping Pat McFadden at the DWP and, most disappointingly, Mahmood gets to stay on at the Home Office. Not what you would call a clean break. Making Ed Miliband foreign secretary gives him a big job that's unlikely to get the unhinged right wing press going. Indeed, this move might convince them it was their pressure that kept him out of the Treasury and ejected from from his energy brief. But it opens that up for someone keen to make a splash. At the time of writing, Wes Streeting hasn't been given a job yet. Yvette Cooper has been shuffled over to health, and room has been cleared for a somewhat triumphant return of Louise Haigh, who was punished under the ancien regime for being too independent and settling the Tory-stoked rail dispute relatively promptly. Taking the reins of the Cabinet Office means she will play a central role in Burnham's oft-floated devolution, including the relocation of some of the operation to the promised Number 10 North. Angela Rayner is back in housing, Jonathan Reynolds is at business, and Lucy Powell - this last year Burnham's representative at the top of the party - is in education. Hard lines again to Bridget Phillipson.

Hoping for the best but prepared for the worst is the mindset of many current and former Labour Party people this evening as the appointments news dribbles in. As Burnham said after winning Makerfield, this is his party's one chance to make everything right. Retaining some key Starmer-era figures in position, and a new chancellor famous for wanting more cash for the military points to the status quo that did the last government in. But, commenting earlier, former Blair aide John McTernan rightly argued that what matters are the first actions the new government takes. Starmer had a disastrous start, all of it self-inflicted. On Tuesday Burnham will set out his immediate decisions, and those will point to what kind of government we're getting. They will affirm whether or not the pre-emptive pessimism a lot of people are feeling is warranted.

Image Credit

Science Fiction Book Haul #9

My book haul brings all the boys to the yard, so it's time we had another. These have been picked up in dribs and drabs from a variety of exotic locations. I.e. Nottingham and Derby.

Digging into the B formats first, it's the doyen of British hard SF, Stephen Baxter. His officially endorsed sequel to HG Wells's The Time Machine might just be his best book in my opinion. So what can he do with the Martians? As you might have gathered from the title, The Massacre of Mankind, it's not likely to be positive for humanity. Britain has enjoyed a technological bonanza from picking over the fighting machines left in the wake of the Martians' defeat. With a souped-up military and a planet full of microbes sure to smite the Martians if they come back, the world is reasonably content. That is until the famous green flashes light up the surface of Mars, signalling a new fleet of cylinders are on their way. Yes, this time the Martians have had their jabs. Massacre has earned less praise and comment in the 10 years since publication than The Time Ships enjoyed. Over long and repetitious is the wisdom of the Goodreads crowd, but as The War of the Worlds is my favourite novel I'm sure there's something in here worth persevering with.

The second on the list is easily the most famous of this clutch, Octavia E Butler's Kindred. To my shame, I've not read any Butler yet. The premise here is that Dana is enjoying her birthday celebrations when she passes through a time slip into antebellum Maryland. She rescues a slave owner's drowning son, and here is set up a cycle where she bounces between the present and the past. Each time, she has to save this privileged white boy from scrapes, even though he becomes increasingly monstrous as he ages. Regarded as something of a classic, I've perhaps laid off because novels dealing with American slavery are grim, and packed with trauma and pain. But it has been some years since reading the last one, Colson Whitehead's SF-adjacent The Underground Railroad. It's time, and it'll definitely be read very soon - I've persuaded my book group to read it for September.

Much lighter fare comes from Richard Morgan with the first of his fantasy series, The Steel Remains. Best known for Altered Carbon and its sequels, Remains pitches itself as a "grimdark" fantasy with a gay lead. Fair enough, but having read it I didn't think it was particularly grim. In fact, it's more chilled than Morgan's more famous titles. People who like plenty of choppy, choppy sword play will be satisfied, and some unpleasant experiences befall poor peasant unfortunates, but it runs along at a decent canter with more than a dollop of Dying Earth/Viriconium influences. To be honest, I liked this more than Altered Carbon.

Aliya Whiteley's Skyward Inn was shortlisted for the Arthur C Clarke Award, so what's it about? There has been a war which, apparently, humanity won against the alien Qita. And now a bunch of veterans from both sides have clubbed together to run the titular inn. A visitor shows up asking for assistance, and with them opens a Pandora's Box worth of questions. Some things, it seems, are better left unsaid and unquestioned. Whiteley has steadily been accruing cred over the years, and walked off with the BSFA's novel award last year. I have read her The Loosening Skin, which is an alternate history thinking through the cultural implications of humans shedding their skin, snake style, instead of it flaking off as it does. That, I thought, had a strong opening before tapering off. But seeing as Skyward Inn scooped a nomination, I am hoping this is better.

The next should need little introduction - an omnibus of Ursula K Le Guin's first four Earthsea novels. Really, I bought this for my niece but seeing as I haven't read it yet ... There's a fairly standard fantasy set up. Ged has a gift for magic and gets sent to wizarding school where he becomes a mighty spellcaster, but over the years evil slowly reveals its predictable head. I wonder who got inspired by such a set up? Another series of books that caused Le Guin to expand her trophy cabinet, and one I'll be tackling very soon.

Then down at the base is The Quantum Thief by Hannu Rajabiemi. This does come with a super hard SF warning, the sort that melts the unwary reader's brain with their exploration of quantum effects and the weirdness associated with that layer of reality. As far as I know, this revolves around a protagonist locked in a virtual prison where he undergoes endless cycles of the prisoner's dilemma. He gets busted out, and it gets stranger from there. This book is known for refusing to explain much, and the reader is just expected to get with the vibe, including all the discomfiting future post-human solar system. Not sure what I'll make of this.

Bottom up on the second stack there we find The Race by Nina Allan. Her debut and BSFA-shortlisted novel features an environmentally-ruined Britain and a character study of four equally-damaged people. In other words, this is as slipstreamy as they come. Nevertheless, my expectations are elevated as I enjoyed The Rift very much, which also played fast and loose with its genre status while telling a great story.

The First Fifteen Lives of Harry August is a well-received variation on the Groundhog Day theme. Wee Harry lives his life, dies, and comes back to live it all over again. And at the outset he's done so 15 times, presumably making different decisions along the way to try out those paths not taken. On the last occasion, he's visited on his death bed by someone who knows, and she needs his help in the next incarnation. Harry August was nominated for the Clarke and the BSFA, and North has won a significant following as an SF writer with her recent space opera, Slow Gods, winning critical praise. This one sounds like the sort of science fiction novel you might get away slipping it to your mainstream fiction reading friends.

Last among the Bs is JM Coetzee's Life & Times of Michael K. It's also another borderline novels, a bit like his preceding release, Waiting for the Barbarians. Here our hero has to journey across an alternative civil war-torn South Africa to return his mum to her rural birthplace. Michael, however, has a cleft lip and learning difficulties, and his mother is a servant to a rich Cape Town family. The path is not a smooth one, and the authorities detain him for "reeducation". Apparently, it has more than a few references to Kafka's The Trial.

Diving into the best paperback format, KW Jeter's Noir presents itself. An underappreciated master of SF and Philip K Dick associate, the only Jeter I've read is his Infernal Devices. A steam punk novel from the guy who coined the term, this was incredibly silly with a preposterous plot, but thoroughly entertaining for all that. Noir is a hard-boiled detective novel set in the only industrialised area left in the world. It's polluted, grimy, and dangerous. To make it extra grim, this hypercapitalist dystopia can raise the dead to pay off debts acrude in life. Sounds charming. And for that reason, a book to look forward to.

Sitting atop that is Barry Malzberg's Galaxies. This slender thing is a deconstruction of space operas, dressed up as a schlocky sounding faster-than-light zombie astronaut romp. It's presented as notes towards a novel by a science fiction author, who allows the story to zip along with inserts on the state and status of the genre, and other asides besides. Malzberg's critical reputation as a fine, if unsung SF literary hero is based on misanthropic works such as this.

Michael Moorcock has written so many books that it's easy to come across one you've never heard of before. The Black Corridor is such a title. Civilisation is falling apart (when is it not?), and one man flees from the Earth with his family. They're in hibernation, and it's a five-year trek to their destination. How will he cope with the intense loneliness? And how will this solitary tale tie in with Moorcock's multiverse? Will the hibernators dream of Jerry Cornelius?

Our penultimate title is The Night of the Triffids. Can you guess what this is a sequel to? 25 years have passed on our survivors' Channel hideaways and all is well. The son of our original hero scours the world looking for the means to defeat the Triffid menace, and finds a glimmer of hope in a New York colony. While the original was the first cosy catastrophe novel and was of considerable literary merit and influence, I understand Simon Clark's authorised sequel has none of these virtues. It's - apparently, for I've nto read it yet - more action/horror-oriented with more blood and guts and little originality. Still, Night might be mindless fun.

And the last of this haul's heap is The Rose, a wee find tucked away hidden in a charity shop's book case. Harness is best known for The Paradox Men, a 1950s space opera that won m admirers, including the aforementioned Michael Moorcock. The Rose is a collection of short stories, featuring the award-winning novella of the same name. This, apparently, features mutants, quantum mechanics, and the relationship between science and art.

That's the haul done. Have you picked up anything interesting lately?

The Political Uses of Ann Widdecombe

Nigel Farage has used every opportunity to fabricate a persecution complex. Being criticised for pocketing £5m and facing a standards inquiry is the establishment out to get him. Questions about his relationship to a moneyed fraudster and his mother is so much hounding. Having his by-election stunt backfire as all the other parties rightly refused to play his game is an elite conspiracy. The appearance of wounding is central not just to Farage's increasingly unpopular populism, but the politics of the right in general.

The murder of Ann Widdecombe which, accordingly to the police, now looks like a targeted killing has become an unseemly Reform jamboree because it plays into the victimhood dynamic they continually set up. A photo opp of leading Reform figures laying wreathes, plenty of buddy-buddy photos of Farage and Richard Tice with Widdecombe flooding Reform-affiliated social media, Farage moaning about the lack of security afforded him even though he declined a state-funded package offered him this year, and his claims to receive "300 threats" a month. Widdecombe was useful in life to the Reform cause as an able media performer who played well with a layer of Tory-Reform voters, and she continues to have crude uses in her demise.

Understandably, how Reform have exploited her death has attracted most attention and criticism. But far less focus has resolved on how politics generally have used Widdecombe's passing. You will have seen the tributes. Every leading politician has given the same one. "I disagreed with her politics", they say, before offering some humanising anecdote, or tribute to her energy, or her formidability, or how, once you got to know her, she was actually quite nice and kind. That all these things might be true are beside the point. Their endless repetition constitutes the received wisdom, the illusio of politics. To put it another way, Widdecombe was being treated as if her views were of no consequence, that her opinions were weightless. This is politics as if it's a dinner party, where everyone chips in with a point and position, and are so much colour that might have made for a memorable evening.

But politics does have weight. It does have consequences. Widdecombe's voting record as an MP out her on the wrong side of every single argument over the 23 years of her parliamentary career. As a social security minister and later as prisons minister, she oversaw attacks on the most vulnerable people and, famously, defended the handcuffing of pregnant prisoners giving birth. As a key Reform spokesperson, this ever-so-kind woman spent her dotage building a political party that exploits and tacitly encourages racist violence, and would threaten the limited democracy we have in this country if they form or become part of the next government. But mentioning all this is the height of rudeness, because politics presents as a public service where politicians are motivated by the noblest of intentions. Where they differ is how best to serve their constituents. It cannot be acknowledged for what it really is - the more or less transparent struggle of interests. The illusio must be maintained, even if the only people who really buy into it these days are the politicians themselves.

Image Credit

Remembering Bonnie Tyler

The Desperation of Nigel Farage

"This is 4D chess!!" shouted Matthew Goodwin into the howling void that is Twitter. With such an endorsement, you just know he was heaping praise on stupidity. And so it was. At 2pm Tuesday afternoon, Nigel Farage fielded a press conference about his political future. Was he going to resign? Yes! Sort of. Viewers were treated to a self-pitying whine about how terribly unfair it was that he wasn't allowed to trough on the freebies, gifts, and cash windfalls showered on him by billionaires, gold bullion companies, and convicted fraudsters without declaring them as per parliamentary rules. It's all a stitch up, he moaned, the establishment are out to get me! And so he's quitting his Clacton seat to force a by-election, showing the world that ordinary people back him.

The Des A masterful gambit this is not. For one, the formal investigation into his troughing does not go away. Assuming Farage is returned to the Commons it simply picks up where it left off. The possibility of a recall petition and a second Clacton by-election some time in the Autumn cannot be discounted. The second was Farage assumed all the other parties would play ball, relishing the chance of having a crack at him in his stronghold to feed his David vs Goliath posturing. Which has already backfired. The Tories, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats aren't going to dignify Farage's by-election stunt with a candidate. If there is any sense, nor should the Greens. Also out is Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain, who say they're holding fire for the proper by-election-to-come following the standards investigation. Therefore, the Reform leader is going to look silly railing against the establishment from the victor's podium, flanked by Count Binface, the Monster Raving Loony Party, and whoever else fancies pouring their deposit down a drain.

Without much of a contest, the media interest is unlikely to make much of the by-election. Undoubtedly, Farage was hoping Clacton would generate Makerfield levels of publicity and allow him to dominate the summer's politics coverage, wresting the spotlight away from Andy Burnham. Instead, other parties choosing not to participate makes the by-election look like a pointless waste of time. The punters of Clacton will be wondering why this farce is even happening, and a few might be turned off from the Reform leader because of this frivolous waste of money. While simultaneously reminding them that the stakes of this contest is he right to take free gifts and cash money. How man-of-the-people of him.

Farage's gambit smacks of desperation. Having been an adroit and skillful operator for so long, in his hubris he might think nemesis is never going to come for him. Hoping that no one cares about his capacious pockets nor the crude political favours he's done in return for cash, such as bigging up crypto, and prominently featuring JCB machinery on local election literature, how the £5m story refuses to go away and keeps getting murkier has left him at a complete loss of what to do. Lying about it, dismissing it, being brazen about it, none have worked as allegations pile on allegations. Farage must rue the day when he decided not to apologise for failing to declare Christopher Harborne's gift and tried to fight it. A case, perhaps, of his being high on his own supply and thinking nothing can touch him nor the solid layer of Reform support that has proven resilient versus everything else thrown at him. This is a moment of maximum peril for Farage and his political chances, made more delicious by how it's entirely self-inflicted.

From Brexit to Frexit?

If you're sparing a thought for Nigel Farage this Sunday, his exposed links to a convicted fraudster are likely to colour them. The Sunday Times writes that Farage received security support, housing perks, and staff funded by crypto "entrepreneur", George Cottrell. Deliciously, Cottrell was arrested in the US in Farage's company in 2017, after doing the rounds at that year's Republican convention. These benefits were, apparently, provided in the lead up to the 2024 general election and, what with Farage's custom and practice, they were not declared.

It's been a bad week for the Reform leader. We learned he'd pocketed £270k fronting a gold bullion dealer, and that he has acquired a £4m property portfolio. He also got testy being pressed on his £5m gift from Christopher Harborne, the Thailand-based crypto billionaire and Russian oil profiteer. From BBC Breakfast's Sally Nugent, to TalkTV's Julia Hartley-Brewer, and LBC's Nick Ferrari, he came across as exasperated, petulant, and annoyed that he should get questioned on this topic. This comes after a poor campaign in Makerfield, where Farage went to ground to avoid those giving answers. These difficulties and his uncharacteristic avoidance of the media spotlight have led some to ask the unthinkable: is Farage long for this political world?

Undoubtedly, it's a question Farage will be asking himself. He will apparently be taking a long break this summer, which will be good news for Andy Burnham and gives his government plenty of opportunities to set the political agenda. But might Farage throw in the towel? It must be tempting. According to former Farage lackey Ben Habib, Farage stood in the election because Harborne ponied up the cash. His frequent issues with not declaring earnings is a sign of a politician on the make, and while not the wealthiest MP he did report the largest income from outside interests - the eight or nine second jobs he's taken since his election as the very occasional representative for Clacton. For Farage, he's got to know that life would be easier and his earning power not dimmed too much if he walked away.

Consider the parliamentary standards investigation. Given precedent, he won't walk away with a slapped wrist. Indeed, a Commons suspension and a recall petition are the likely consequences of the Harborne affair. Undoubtedly exacerbated by the multiple occasions he's failed to declare earnings, including today's Times splash. Unless all the other parties could get behind a squeaky clean anti-corruption but non-political figure, like finance guru Martin Lewis, Farage would surely win the by-election. But would he want to fight a campaign when it's his money grubbing that's the reason for and the focus of the contest? Does Farage want to risk the awkward viral videos of having random Clacton'ers berating him, or having a strip torn off him on a previous Reform voter's doorstep?

The second issue is his political future. Braving the by-election means more years of scrutiny and accountability. It's possible, thanks to past behaviour, that there are going to be future non-declarations, and perhaps more Commons investigations. But supposing those storms are weathered, everything goes wrong because Burnham turns out to be no different to Keir Starmer and Farage finds himself in Number 10. Not only would this be the gravest disaster in British political history, it would be an opportunity for him and his lieutenants to engorge themselves. However, Farage is a greedy man, not a stupid man. Does he want a future where yes, he can fill his boots, but afterwards face possible pursuit by whoever might succeed him. Would Farage rather spend his infirm old age relaxing on sun loungers, or fending off investigations, legal challenges, criminal probes, imprisonment? Hence why the Reform leader's Frexit can't be entirely discounted.

Image Credit