Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Andy Burnham at Labour Party Conference

There was something for almost everyone. Andy Burnham's speech at Labour conference was what most of the party's voters were hoping for. It began with a restatement of ambition on housing - more leaseholder reform, a curtailing of right to buy, greater local authority powers over private rental, and the option of expropriating slum landlords and empty houses. Reducing deposits to 2.5% for new builds for first-time buyers, which was pre-announced at the weekend, sounded like it could have been pinched from a Tory prospectus.

On water, there were more hazy promises of "public control". But this time there was more flesh on the skeleton. Repealing the Thatcher-era ban on taking water into public ownership is a symbolic gesture, as that could have been dispensed with by any legislation that took a water company back into state ownership. In the forthcoming water bill, there will be greater oversight and powers of intervention devolved to mayoralties. Bonuses for failing bosses will be stopped, there will be tougher consequences for failure with nationalisation being the ultimate sanction. Something Thames Water customers are likely to welcome. On energy, more home-grown renewables and domestic nuclear is to be encouraged, the unveiling of a national energy grid plan with local input, a new state-owned company called Great British Grid will be launched to enable its renovation, and market reform is coming - above all the speeding up of disentangling energy prices from gas prices.

Burnham moved on to care. Recalling his grandmother's experience with the care system, and the work put in by his late dad's care givers he said, with some emotion, that "I want to speak directly to our care workers: you are not invisible to me." And drawing attention to how the industry has been variously neglected by successive governments, he said "I am sorry my profession has let down yours for so long". The national care service was revisited, and he defined the vision as "person-centered high quality care service that starts in the home", according to the principle of everyone contributes, and everyone is covered. There will be no care charges taken from the basic state pension, and the idea is that people won't find their savings eaten up by escalating costs. Burnham said this would be as significant as the foundation of the NHS.

How to pay for it? The scrapping of the triple lock on pensions was trailed heavily before the speech, and when it came its replacement sounds very much like ... a double lock. The link with earnings after 2030 will be dropped, and instead the state pension will rise with inflation or 2.5%. Though Burnham strongly implied it will retain a relationship to wage levels. Eh? It sounded a bit of a muddle, and it's not clear how this would save money that would be ploughed into the care service.

On young people, there was the usual nod to parity of esteem re: academic and technical routes in education. There's also to be a stronger emphasis on comprehensive education as a means for securing the future. Likewise, his remarks on foreign policy were brief and offered no break with the established way of doing things - Russia, bad; Iran, bad; Palestine, two-state solution.

And rounding the speech off, Burnham riffed off the theme of fixing our broken politics. He said he would work cross-party on as much of his programme as possible, but noted how the Westminster system is the root of much of our problems. Referencing the possibility of a "divisive government" being elected on under 30% of the vote, he announced a national commission on electoral reform with an invitation to all parties to contribute. He also said the next Labour manifesto would have a clear commitment to changing the system. And from here, he moved on to Brexit. Unlike Keir Starmer who wouldn't touch the issue with a barge pole, Burnham was repeatedly scathing about its consequences. He went on to say the upcoming UK/EU summit will be an occasion for laying out the country's long-term relationship with the EU, and he will offer some options for structuring it. A code, as if it needed spelling out, for putting rejoining the EU back on the table.

Burnham began his speech saying it wasn't going to be a traditional conference speech. And really, it wasn't. There was no point scoring against the opposition parties. No lame jokes tied to cheap shots. It was, unusually, an address aimed at Labour's former coalition outside the hall. Everything here, the promise of breaking with 40 years of neoliberalism, the "rewiring of the state", fixing the foundations of British capitalism, the ambitions for the National Care Service, electoral reform, and a closer relationship to the EU, it was taking up the mantle of modernising the state and putting the country on a new trajectory. That's the promise, and - as we have seen - the record since entering Downing Street has been more mixed. But politically speaking, this was crafted to consolidate centre left and left voters, including not a few centrist voters and those on the soft right that like the idea of national renewal and EU alignment, behind Labour. If Burnham follows through and this programme is visibly making headway by the next election, then he may well get to oversee the fruits of his 10-year plan.

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Saturday, 26 September 2026

Quarter Three 2026 By-Election Results

This quarter 158,122 votes were cast in 82 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 44 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter Two's results here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- Q2
+/- Q3 25
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
           81
28,039
    17.7%
  +0.1
     +1.1
   346
    -3
Labour
           69
30,666
    19.4%
  +5.5
     +2.3
   444
    -3
Lib Dem
           70
22,932
    14.5%
   -4.6
      -2.4
   328
   +5
Reform
         82
35,832
    22.7%
   -4.6
      -4.2
   437
   +7
Green
           67
21,776 
    13.8%
   -2.1
     +3.7
   325
     0
SNP*
            5
 5,030
      3.2%
  +2.4
     +2.0
 1,006
     0
PC**
           12
 3,870
      2.4%
  +1.0
     +0.1
   323
    -1
Ind***
           34
 6,409
      4.1%
  +0.4
      -3.8
   189
    -3
Other****
           27
 3,566
      2.3%
  +1.7
     +1.4
   132
    -2


* There were five by-elections in Scotland
** There were 14 by-elections in Wales
*** There were nine Independent clashes
**** Others this quarter were Alliance for Democracy and Freedom (28, 12, 12), Christian People's Alliance (37, 12), Communist Party of Britain (46, 22), Edinburgh & East Lothian People (78, 9, 7), Horwich and Blackrod First (1,186), Monster Raving Loony (13), Nottingham People's Alliance (523), Residents for Uttleford (138), Restore (284, 218, 98) Scottish Family Party (73, 54, 38), SPGB (6), TUSC (56, 36), Workers Party of Britain (466, 58), Your Party (45, 11)

Last quarter, Reform posted its lowest share of the popular vote since Q1 2025. Except on that occasion the party was on the rise from a low base and now, it appears, the fortunes have turned against it. Nevertheless supporters can console themselves with the largest net gain of councillors and winning most ballots. But for how long? Elsewhere, the Burnham bounce worked its magic on Labour's vote and stymied the catastrophic loss of seats. Compare this quarter to Labour's miserable record this last year. The Tories are less certain. The press like to talk about recovery, but by-election results suggest torpor. But with Reform's difficulties, they're at least well-placed to profit from them.

Speaking of the next quarter, only October's contests are locked and loaded. But if past behaviour is any guide to future behaviour, with over 2,000 councillors the chaos and fallings outs that are more characteristic of Farage's retinue than the other parties, the party can be expected to "enjoy" some awkward by-elections. Alongside the usual pattern of resignations and defections. Unless Labour right royally screws up, as long as they retain their current polling lead then local by-election retention will improve. Who knows, a net gain of councillors before Christmas?

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Friday, 25 September 2026

Local Council By-Elections September 2026

This month saw 48,753 votes cast in 20 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 11 council seats changed hands. For comparison with August's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- Aug
+/- Sep 25
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
          20
 8,908
    18.3%
  +4.0
     +3.0
   445
     0
Labour
          19
11,250
    23.1%
   -1.8
     +8.7
   592
     0
Lib Dem
          17
 5,885
    12.3%
   -2.7
      -3.9
   346
   +1
Reform
          20
 8,138
    16.7%
 -11.8
      -9.2
   407
   +3
Green
          18
 9,553
    19.6%
  +9.4
     +5.9 
   531
    -1
SNP*
           3
 3,313
    6.8%
  +6.8
    +5.2
 1,104
    -1
PC**
           1
   329
     0.7%
   -0.8
      -1.8
   329
     0
Ind***
           5
   428
     0.9%
   -1.7
      -8.6
    86
    -1
Other****
          14
   949
     1.9%
   -1.1
     +1.1
    68
    -1

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were no Independent clashes
**** Others this month were Alliance for Democracy and Freedom (28, 12, 12), Communist Party of Britain (46, 22), Edinburgh & East Lothian People (78, 9, 7), Scottish Family Party (73, 38), TUSC (56), Workers Party of Britain (466, 58), Your Party (45)

What a messy month! Conservatives: gained two, lost two. Labour: gained two, lost two. Greens: gained two, lost three. And on top of that, there's the weird Reform result. They retake the month's by-election crown with most net gains, but their vote has slewed away and have turned in a performance much worse than their current polling figures. Meanwhile, the Greens played musical council chairs with the Tories and Labour, but recorded their best ever vote tally and came second. Pure chaos.

Reform's slide is consistent with the party's downward trajectory, but this doesn't signal curtains any more than their trailing in the polls by two or three points do. It's a matter of geography. Labour are recovering in the polls. The Tories have inched forward from their doldrums, but ultimately a disproportionate set of by-elections took place on terrain not as congenial for a strong return for Reform. It's as simple as that. Ditto for the Greens too. They suffered some poor results this month, but they polled strongly in areas where they are strong. A decent comparator will be next month, where Reform are defending four seats and are fielding candidates in wards friendlier to them. If October's result hovers around September's figures, then they're in worse trouble than the polls suggest.

2nd September
Stroud, Kingswood, LDem hold

3rd September
Edinburgh, Portobello/Craigmillar, Grn gain from SNP
Edinburgh, Southside/Newington, Lab gain from SNP
Oxfordshire, Chesterton & Launton, LDem hold
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Llantwit Fardre, Con hold
Somerset, Frome West, Grn hold

10th September
Manchester, Burnage, Lab hold
North East Derbyshire, Eckington South & Renishaw, Ref gain from Lab
North Somerset, Hutton & Locking, Ref gain from Con
West Suffolk, Haverhill West, Con hold

15th September
Bassetlaw, East Markham, Ref gain from Con

17th September
Charnwood, Wreake Valley, Con gain from Grn
Sheffield, Walkley, Lab gain from Grn
South Lanarkshire, Avondale & Stonehouse, SNP gain from Ind

23rd September
Tunbridge Wells, Cranbrook, Sissinghurst & Frittenden, LDem gain from Oth

24th September
Brighton & Hove, Queen's Park, Grn gain from Lab
Cotswold, Blockley, Con gain from Grn
Milton Keynes, New Bradwell, Lab hold
South Staffordshire, Wombourne North, Con hold
Windsor & Maidenhead, Bray, Con hold

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