
Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- May
|
+/- Jun 24
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
28
| 10,945 |
14.8%
| -4.6 |
-10.2
|
391
|
-3
|
Labour
|
29
| 12,783 |
17.3%
| +0.6 |
-16.7
| 441
|
-9
|
Lib Dem
|
25
| 12,677
|
17.2%
| -5.4 |
+2.8
|
507
|
+2
|
Reform*
|
31
| 23,072
|
31.2%
| +8.1 |
+29.9
|
744
| +12
|
Green
|
26
| 7,320
|
9.9%
| -0.8
|
+3.7
|
282
|
+2
|
SNP**
|
3
| 1,100 |
1.5%
| +1.0 |
-5.2
| 367
|
0
|
PC***
|
0
| - |
0
| ||||
Ind****
|
24
| 5,412 |
7.3%
|
-2.2
|
226
|
-2
| |
Other*****
|
12
|
0.7%
| -1.5 |
-1.2
|
46
|
-2 |
* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There were three by-elections in Scotland
*** There were no by-elections in Wales
**** There were four Independent clashes
***** Others in June consisted of Alba (91), Britain First (22), Scottish Family Party (34), Scottish Libertarian Party (25), Social Justice Party (118), TUSC (62, 43, 39, 35, 17), UKIP (5), Yorkshire Party (58)
Is this what realignment looks like? While that question can only get settled by future elections, these results are catastrophic for the main two parties. Wherever Reform stands, particularly against Labour, incumbents are brushed aside with barely any ground game. In these sorts of places, the right wing vote has fled the Tories and, combined with the sliver of Reform-curious Labour voters and the none-of-the-aboves, the hype that Farage's party is the anti-establishment party is real. But while Labour simply caves in when Reform put up a candidate, the Tories - in receipt of one of their lowest by-election popular votes ever - are still capable of taking consolation seats from Labour.
This, however, hides the depths of the crisis of "sensible" politics. On paper, Labour are still the masters of their destiny because they are in office. They could transform their fortunes by adopting a popular policy agenda and getting rid of Keir Starmer, who now has the miasma of Truss-like failure pooling about him. The Tories, however, do not have this luxury. The more they turn to the right, the more they affirm the efficacy of Reform-style politics, and the more obsolete they become. While some in Labour have woken up to the problem, the same cannot be said for the Conservatives. And now, given these results and more dark times to come, for them it might already be too late.
5 June
Amber Valley, Somercotes, Ref gain from Lab
King's Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead, Ref gain from Lab
King's Lynn & West Norfolk, North Lynn, Ref gain from Lab
Tendring, Frinton, Ref gain from Con
West Sussex, Burgess Hill North, LDem hold
West Sussex, Hassocks & Burgess Hill South, LDem hold
West Sussex, St Leonard's Forest, LDem gain from Con
Wokingham, Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates, LDem gain from Con
11 June
Stroud, Severn, Grn gain from Lab
12 June
Leeds, Morley South, Ref gain from Ind
Mid Suffolk, Haughley, Stowupland & Wetherden, Grn hold
North Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers, Ref gain from LDem, Con gain from LDem
Nottinghamshire, Mansfield North, Ref gain from Con, Ref gain from Lab
19 June
Adur, Buckingham, Lab hold
City of London, Vintry, Ind hold
Highland, Cromarty Firth, Ind hold
Highland, Eilean a' Cheò, Ind hold
North Yorkshire, Eastfield, Ref gain from Oth
Sefton, Blundellsands, Lab hold
Spelthorne, Ashford Town, LDem gain from Con
26 June
Basildon, Wickford Park, Ref gain from Ind
Chorley, Buckshaw & Whittle, Con gain from Lab
Edinburgh, Fountainbridge & Craiglockhart, LDem gain from Lab
Greenwich, Shooters Hill, Grn gain from Lab
Mid Devon, Crediton Lawrence, LDem hold
Rossendale, Whitworth, Ref gain from Oth
Rother, Catsfield & Crowhurst, LDem hold
Sheffield, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Ref gain from Lab
South Staffordshire, Great Wyrley Landywood, Con hold
Stevenage, Bedwell, Lab hold
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