Sunday 30 June 2019

What I've Been Reading Recently

We're at the half-year mark, which means three months have passed by since last time. And so, for no reason in particular, here's what I've got through during the last quarter.

Kill All Normies by Angela Nagle
Corbynism: A Critical Approach by Matt Bolton and Frederick Harry Pitts
Foundation and Empire by Isaac Asimov
True Blues by Paul Whiteley, Patrick Seyd, and Jeremy Richardson
Glamorama by Bret Easton Ellis
Imperial Bedrooms by Bret Easton Ellis
Edgework by Wendy Brown
Injury Time by Beryl Bainbridge
Leviathan Wake by James SA Corey
Hawksmoor by Peter Ackroyd
The Posthuman by Rosi Braidotti
Great Expectations by Kathy Acker
Displaced by Stephen Abarbanell
On Populist Reason by Ernesto Laclau
The Stories of Eva Luna by Isabel Allende
The Timekeeper by Mitch Albom
Crowds and Party by Jodi Dean
Dan Leno and the Limehouse Golem by Peter Ackroyd
Caliban's War by James SA Corey
Jeremy Corbyn and the Strange Rebirth of Labour England by Francis Beckett and Mark Seddon
The Idea of Communism edited by Costas Douzinas and Slavoj Zizek
Bastard Out of Carolina by Dorothy Allison
New Faces of Fascism by Enzo Traverso
Devolution and the Scottish Conservatives by Alexander Smith
London Fields by Martin Amis
American War by Omar El Akkad
The Portrait of Mr WH by Oscar Wilde
Digital Citizenship in a Datafied Society by Arne Hintz, Lina Dencik, and Karin Wahl-Jorgensen
Leninism and Western Socialism by Roy A. Medvedev
The Fatal Tree by Jake Arnott
Waiting for the Revolution edited by Evan Smith and Matthew Worley
Anna by Niccolo Ammaniti

No commentary on anything I've read this time, unfortunately. Getting struck down with norovirus isn't conducive to much in the way of thinking! So what have you had on the go these past three months?

Quarter Two By-Election Results 2019

Overall, 139,438 votes were cast over 68 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison you can view Quarter One's results here. Please note four seats were contested for the first time.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q1
+/- Q2 2018
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         68
35,872
   25.7%
  -0.1%
  -10.7%
   528
    -4
Labour
         61
38,151
   27.4%
 +0.3%
    -7.7%
   625
    -5
LibDem
         57
26,986
   19.4%
  -2.1%
   +1.7%
   473
   +5
UKIP
         20
 5,600
    4.0%
 +2.0%
   +3.3%
   280
   +1
Green
         28
 9,128
    6.5%
 +2.1%
   +1.5%
   326
     0
SNP*
          3
 5,969
    4.3%
 +2.7%
   +3.1%
  1,990
   +2
PC**
          2
   241
    0.2%
 -1.3%
   +0.2%
   121
     0
Ind***
         32
12,972
    9.3%
 -1.3%
   +6.4%
   405
   +4
Other****
         16
 4,519
    5.2%
 -0.3%
   +4.2%
   282
   +1

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were four by-elections in Wales
*** There were seven independent clashes this quarter
**** Others consisted of Women's Equality Party (71, 41, 53), People Before Profit (151, 218), Democrats and Veterans (13, 28), Christian People's Alliance (52), Anti-Cuts (91), Citizens First (45), Tunbridge Wells Alliance (1,088), Upminster and Cranham Residents Association (2,421), British Union and Sovereignty Party (165), Socialist Labour Party (56), For Britain (14), Libertarian Party (12)

Once again, there isn't a great deal one can say. As by-election tallies tend to be flatter than the national polls, it's interesting to see that, for a change, the quarter's results are bucking polling trends. However, this can be explained by only having one month's data point (June's) that reflect the new reality post-European elections vis a vis Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but then again this can also be put down to the ward profiles of the seats that were up. We're going to have to wait and see if what's happening at national level will stir the depths of local elections.

Also interesting is UKIP's best result for quite some time. As the Brexit Party don't contest local elections (yet) they are no doubt benefiting from an anti-EU vote, but nowhere near as much as one might expect. If Farage gives the nod to his minions to start contesting local elections it will be interesting to watch how much the Conservative vote is hit.

Friday 28 June 2019

Local Council By-Elections June 2019

This month saw 21,871 votes cast over 17 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Nine council seats changed hands and two seats were contested for the first time. For comparison with May's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
May
+/- June 18
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
           17
  6,811
    31.1%
 +4.9%
   +4.7%
    401
    -1
Labour
           16
  5,111
    23.4%
  -5.4%
   -13.9%
    319
    -1
LibDem
           16
  5,662
    25.9%
 +7.8%
   +3.1%
    354
   +5
UKIP
            4
    313
     1.4%
  -3.6%
   +0.1%
     78
     0
Green
            8
  1,907
     6.8%
 +2.0%
   +2.2%
    238
     0
SNP
            0
    
  
 
     0
PC**
            1
   120
     0.5%
 +0.4%
   +0.5%
    120
     0
Ind***
           12
  1,947
     8.9%
 -0.6%
   +2.9%
    162
    -1
Other****
            0
 
    
 
  
   
  

* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were three independent clashes this month
**** No others/minor parties ran this month

What a busy month! And what a curious one, given the happenings during last month's European elections. I say curious because it seems to be mirroring what we're seeing in the polls. Labour down, LibDems displacing them. And while UKIP are stuck in nowhere land, I'd day say that if the Brexit Party were piling in to local election contests we'd see the Tories here suffering more to.

That said, it is but a month, and as you can see from the seats listed below they were drawn disproportionately from the kinds of wards where Labour are an also ran. So it's not worth drawing any conclusions about the national filtering down to the local quite yet.


6th June
Herefordshire UA, Ross North, LDem gain from Con
South Staffordshire DC, Wombourne South West, Con hold x2

13th June
Broxtowe BC, Stapleford South East, LDem gain from Con x2
North Devon DC, Chittlehampton, Con gain from Ind
North Kestevan DC, Billinghay, Martin & North Kyme, Con gain from Ind

20th June
Forest of Dean, Newent & Taynton, Ind gain, LDem gain
Isle of Wight UA, Whippingham & Osborne, Con gain from Ind
Merton LBC, Cannon Hill, LDem gain from Lab
Neath Port Talbot UA, Pelenna, Ind hold
Salford MBC, Walkden South, Lab gain from Con
South Ribble DC, Farrington West, Con hold x2
Wandsworth LBC, Furzedown, Lab hold

27th June
Mansfield DC, Sandhurst, Ind gain from Lab