Sunday, 30 June 2019

Quarter Two By-Election Results 2019

Overall, 139,438 votes were cast over 68 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison you can view Quarter One's results here. Please note four seats were contested for the first time.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q1
+/- Q2 2018
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         68
35,872
   25.7%
  -0.1%
  -10.7%
   528
    -4
Labour
         61
38,151
   27.4%
 +0.3%
    -7.7%
   625
    -5
LibDem
         57
26,986
   19.4%
  -2.1%
   +1.7%
   473
   +5
UKIP
         20
 5,600
    4.0%
 +2.0%
   +3.3%
   280
   +1
Green
         28
 9,128
    6.5%
 +2.1%
   +1.5%
   326
     0
SNP*
          3
 5,969
    4.3%
 +2.7%
   +3.1%
  1,990
   +2
PC**
          2
   241
    0.2%
 -1.3%
   +0.2%
   121
     0
Ind***
         32
12,972
    9.3%
 -1.3%
   +6.4%
   405
   +4
Other****
         16
 4,519
    5.2%
 -0.3%
   +4.2%
   282
   +1

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were four by-elections in Wales
*** There were seven independent clashes this quarter
**** Others consisted of Women's Equality Party (71, 41, 53), People Before Profit (151, 218), Democrats and Veterans (13, 28), Christian People's Alliance (52), Anti-Cuts (91), Citizens First (45), Tunbridge Wells Alliance (1,088), Upminster and Cranham Residents Association (2,421), British Union and Sovereignty Party (165), Socialist Labour Party (56), For Britain (14), Libertarian Party (12)

Once again, there isn't a great deal one can say. As by-election tallies tend to be flatter than the national polls, it's interesting to see that, for a change, the quarter's results are bucking polling trends. However, this can be explained by only having one month's data point (June's) that reflect the new reality post-European elections vis a vis Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but then again this can also be put down to the ward profiles of the seats that were up. We're going to have to wait and see if what's happening at national level will stir the depths of local elections.

Also interesting is UKIP's best result for quite some time. As the Brexit Party don't contest local elections (yet) they are no doubt benefiting from an anti-EU vote, but nowhere near as much as one might expect. If Farage gives the nod to his minions to start contesting local elections it will be interesting to watch how much the Conservative vote is hit.

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