The Leaders' Debate: Who Won?

It's not been a happy 24 hours for Boris Johnson. He ducked an interview with ITV's Julie Etchingham and has (understandably) ruled out appearing on Andrew Neil, after the latter took the unprecedented leap of issuing a public challenge. Then footage emerged last night of Sally-Ann Hart, Tory candidate in Amber Rudd's old seat, arguing disabled people and those with learning difficulties should be paid less because "they don't understand the value of money". And today has proven no better. Doing the media's job for them, Labour revealed a report about the consequences Johnson's deal will have for Northern Ireland - effectively a tariff wall in the Irish Sea between it and the mainland, and one the PM has previously denied. And last of all, the Brexit counsel in Washington resigned as she was sick of peddling "half-truths" on behalf of a government she could no longer trust. Ouch.

Not the best mood music Johnson could have hoped for prior to this evening's BBC leaders' debate. Given how ill-received the last clash was, at least compared to the praised leaders' Question Time, how did it go?

Drawing on the political savvy for which he is known, Matt Hancock tweeted that this election is a choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. Well, at least the show established that. Apart from this, while less bad tempered than their last encounter both got their messages out, and so it depends what you're looking for. In line with his manifesto, Johnson promised little beyond clarifying his dishonest maths over his nurses pledge and moved to attack Corbyn wherever possible on Brexit. The absurdity was certainly strong with this one when the answers from everything to John Major refusing to endorse the Tories to the NHS to rampant Islamophobia in his party never deviated from Get Brexit Done. Without a doubt this season's "strong and stable", rare is the occasion he's taken to task for his nonsense.

Well, not so tonight. Corbyn said we had a seven year wait between leaving the EU and striking a deal with the US to look forward to. Getting Brexit done, indeed. He also attacked Johnson for falsely claiming the UK's trading relationship will be unchanged, as well as dismissing the border in the Irish Sea. Johnson can dismiss it all he likes, it's there not just in the documents Labour produced earlier today but in other publicly released papers about his Brexit plan. Why else are the DUP upset with him? Unfortunately, Nick Robinson did not allow for a pressing of the point - which is the reason why these head-to-heads aren't great because the pressure of time for audience questions means charlatans like Johnson can bluster their answers before moving to the next question.

On Corbyn's part, as per Labour's manifesto he talked about the substantive issues. Rightly, defanging nonsense about the party's plan being a road map to full communism he argued that if every pledge was implemented, the UK would only just about meet the level of public service provision of Germany and France - hardly beacons of Bolshevism. Corbyn also laid into Johnson over nursing shortages, observing £9k tuition fees are one of the key factors putting people off from entering the profession. Meanwhile, asked about what would happen if MPs are caught lying Johnson was allowed to waffle some incoherent statement about going on their knees in front of the Commons. Snore.

In all, there were no own goals from either side and both got across the messages they wanted. For Johnson, it was Brexit. For Corbyn, it was life after Brexit. And just like last time, Johnson made the error of reinforcing Labour's message on the second referendum. Obviously, he thinks it can pick him up a few Labour leavers, but it disproportionately helps Labour more in firming up LibDem-facing remain voters behind it. In truth, accomplishing this may turn out to be the sole positive contribution Johnson makes during his otherwise lamentable career.

The question is will it make a difference, and the answer is probably not. For those with their minds made up no unmaking was on the agenda. And for those undecided, it depends very much on their priorities. Those looking at the new askance and are bored with Brexit will find Johnson's simple messaging amenable, assuming they are leave voters. Those looking for more substance are more likely to have their thoughts caught by Labour's big programme, with its pledges to sort out poverty and the innumerable injustices that have accelerated under the Tories. And while YouGov's post-debate poll revisited the eternal, accursed 52/48 ratio in favour of Johnson, as we head into the final weekend there is still everything to play for.

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