Saturday 31 August 2019

The EU's Counter-Brinkmanship

The decision of Boris Johnson to prorogue parliament for 35 days, and securing the Queen's assent for this has caused some in the remain movement to see the British constitution and British democracy for what it is: a system rigged by design to prevent meaningful scrutiny and accountability. This is significant because for the more liberal end of the movement, there is - or was - a pronounced if touchingly naive faith in institutions, the hopes that somewhere lurking in the Byzantine corridors of state a deus ex machina would activate and stop Johnson, and perhaps even stopping Brexit without us having to do anything. The Queen was one. The courts another, hence the alacrity with which Gina Miller and friends takes to them (which is a waste of time - the problem with Johnson's suspension of parliament isn't that it's illegal but it is entirely constitutional). And as these levers have proven to be duds or non-existent, so the movement is radicalising with calls for demonstrations, civil disobedience, and strikes: a situation ripe for a more radical politics with the battle for democracy writ large.

One faded luminary of the remain movement has offered hope that messy street politics won't be necessary. Speaking at a seminar in Edinburgh on Thursday, Gordon Brown waved around his great clunking fist and suggested the EU will unilaterally withdraw the 31st October deadline at some point "next week". According to him, he's "had talks" with EU leaders, which has provided grounds for this belief. This does not amount to extending Article 50 as this would require the UK's consent as well, but makes it very clear the EU is the one showing flexibility and it's Boris Johnson who's being rigid.

Not a get out of Brexit free card then but, if true, smart politics on the EU's part that makes the government's life more difficult. Unlike most centre right parties across the EU, who tend to be general committees for the common affairs of their respective capitals, the Tories have always been a sectional party of finance, landed capital, spivs and speculators, and food and drink production first and foremost. In more recent years, thanks to the collapse of the Tories during the John Major administration (now rehabilitated as a hero in the anti-Johnson pantheon), Tony Blair's lasting legacy was not just breaking sections of capital and the petit bourgeoisie from auto-Toryism, but accomplishing this among finance capital too. Blair and Brown's programme of handing public service provision to markets and business, encouragement of the property bubble, and light touch regulation did bring in the tax revenues for their social programmes, but for a time ensured most of the City was politically onside. After Brown saved their hides from the stock market crash and credit crunch, they showed their gratitude by falling in behind Dave's shiny new liberal Tories. Finance benefited handsomely from his Thatcherism redux, and stuck with the Tories for the 2015 election, but the referendum again prised open the divisions among finance capital. Most went remain and showered the campaign with cash and personnel, while those with interests outside of the EU, or stood to gain from the fire sale of assets a disastrous no deal Brexit would entail advocated leave and have stuck with the Tories. Finance capital is not univocal in its immediate interests, and most of it is arrayed against the Prime Minister and his reckless project.

While few in the upper echelons of the EU would see things so starkly, it would appear they share the increasingly commonsensical view that the Tory party presently constituted is a vector of instability whose narrow-mindedness and extreme short-termism is a threat to the EU project itself. Any hint of unfair treatment or an impression of doing the UK over, as per the recent cases of Italy and especially Greece, is grist to the mill of the right wing populism eating away at the EU's legitimacy. Therefore, while most EU governments are on the right and are as committed to neoliberal fundamentalism as Johnson, they're not about to do him nor the most backward sections of British capital he represents a favour when it's going to cost them.

And this puts the onus back on to the Prime Minister. We're leaving on 31st October, do or die, but what was the EU's deadline becomes his deadline. We've been told time after time EU negotiations have the tendency to go down to the wire with deals struck at the last possible moment. And, um, they do. Without the Hallowe'en date written in stone, Johnson owns it. To be sure it won't make any difference to his strategy, because no Brexit = no Tory party, but at the next election he and his ilk cannot blame anyone else for the coming calamity.

The question then is will the EU do it? They definitely should. Having Cummings in Number 10 doing his predictably "unpredictable" thing encourages others to make bold moves as well. If Brown's belief is correct and the EU cancel the deadline, it's hard to see how Johnson and friends are going to scramble to mitigate the damage.

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14 comments:

Boffy said...

The EU doesn't want a No Deal Brexit. It would cause disruption, not least to Ireland. But, the effect on Britain and particularly Northern Ireland will be much, much worse, and in the very short term catastrophic.

At the same time, although the EU doesn't want a No Deal, nor can they given Johnson any concessions. They are not about to destroy the single market by doing so. So, they will allow him to have his No Deal, if that is really what he wants to do. They will, and in fact, in their you have 30 days to put up or shut up ultimatum to him have used the well warn formulae of Dirty Harry "The question is punk, do you feel lucky? Well do you, punk? Go ahead, make my day."

Because the truth is, the EU really can't lose here. Johnson must know that a No Deal crash out will be catastrophic. It will bring down his government and destroy the Tory Party. So, its unlikely he would ever carry it through, which is why he is hoping like hell the EU give him something that he might be able to get through parliament to save his bacon. Otherwise, he has to back down, probably using the collapse of markets that would be accompanying such conditions as his justification. Or he has to carry it through, introduce Martial Law under the Emergency Powers Act, batten down the hatches and tough it out, as civil unrest erupts around him.

That will ultimately result in Britain making an emergency appeal for readmittance on supplicants terms. It will be enough of a warning to other nationalists across Europe not to follow such a course. It will forever diminish UK power in Europe and in the world, which is good for France and Germany.

Brexit will be bad for Ireland, but it will not suffer the immediate term chaos that Britain will, precisely because it is in the EU. It won't be Ireland facing food and medicines shortages, planes grounded and so on. And, if the severity of the chaos in Britain means that its a crisis that last only a couple of weeks, before the UK has to admit defeat and apply to have the whole thing forgotten about as a bad dream, Ireland with EU support can well cope during such a period, and it will also strengthen Ireland v UK, bringing a United Ireland much closer.

The EU doesn't want the messiness of a No Deal, but its a win-win for them either way.

Anonymous said...

Hello Phil, I saw Labour are planning campaigning in Broxtowe on 7th Sept. I'm a member but I've never gone campaigning before, should I go? The Boris Johnson government and No Deal have pushed me to the "I should do something IRL" stage. However I don't normally leave the house. Should I attend?

Phil said...

If you feel you're up to it, absolutely. I recommend dropping Broxtowe Labour a line via ask@broxtowelabour.com , or on Twitter via @broxtowelabour or the party's candidate Greg Marshall on @Greg4Broxtowe. Hope all goes well!

Anonymous said...

Hmmm I am sure Boffy has claimed in the past that he isn’t a catastrophist and sharply criticised those who are! Now he talks like it’s the end times!

If Boffy is correct and a no deal Brexit will be such a disaster for Britain then the EU will surely be welcoming that scenario for the reason that it will be an example to all nations across Europe, oppose EU nationalism and you end up in shit creek.

The EU nationalists should be rubbing their hands at the prospect.

But maybe what worries the EU is that Brexit won’t be the dystopian nightmare the EU nationalists think it will.

Even though I supported remain and still do really, I think I am now at the point where I want to see what a no deal looks like, just to see if the catastrophists are correct and Brexit will be a disaster. I think catastrophists like Boffy are wrong. What saddens me is how Britain has such an obstinate hatred of foreigners, particularly the dark skinned ones. But I guess centuries of imperialism led mass murder and theft will result in that. Marx actually recognised this problem; Boffy is simply a servile lackey of ruling class interest, and ironically has contributed to Britain being a chauvinistic nation, so in his own small way, Boffy, for all his blather, bears responsibility for the attitudes that brought about Brexit.

People like Boffy, who claim to be EU nationalists, want the one thing that will kill off closer EU integration for a generation, namely Britain being inside the tent thwarting all attempts at closer integration! Another irony! Actually given this paradox I think we have to conclude that Boffy is actually a British nationalist, given he thinks more about Britain’s interests than those of the EU! Lets be honest if Boffy wasn’t a British nationalists he wouldn’t care so much about this issue would he?

Boffy is not just an end of timer, he also denies science when it comes to the the amount of energy needed to sustain the world. Boffy literally believes the entire world can use the same amount of energy as the average Westerner. This is simply not possible, and even when Boffy goes all Star Trek on us and pins his entire hopes on Nuclear Fusion this will not change the amount of stuff that is actually produced. The US and it lackey allies will still control shipping lanes around the world and no amount of Nuclear fusion will change that. By supporting the EU boffy simply supports white supremacy, because at his heart Boffy is not simply a EU nationalist, he is a white supremacists to boot.

dermot said...

Boffy, I do think it'll be worse for UK than ROI, but this piece got some minds focused in Ireland recently:

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/absolute-chaos-for-months-shoppers-here-facing-empty-shelves-within-days-of-nodeal-brexit-38450011.html

The JIT deliver system works very nicely between UK/ROI, but replacing that with an ROI/FR ferry system will be a huge problem. I'll be home (visiting from US) for a week before/after Brexit, so will soon get to see the early stages. There's little / no warehouse storage slack because of JIT, so shortages should, if analysis is correct, appear quite quickly.

Boffy said...

Dermot,

The point is that ROI won't have the problems of certification etc. that the UK will, and so the things like planes and ferries, import of medicines and so on will not apply. I agree that having to shift to imports direct from the continent to ROI rather than across the border from NO or across the Irish Sea from Holyhead etc. will not be easy, but the EU and Ireland have had three years to prepare for that, and the EU has massive resources that the UK does not have.

I have no doubt that the EU will throw whatever resources are required to address that at the problem, knowing that it will be for only a very short period. Meanwhile, if that is a problem for the ROI, imagine what that means for the meltdown that will happen in NI!!!

It means the demands for Irish unity will become unstoppable. But the attack on the James Connolly Pipe band march for Irish unity by nationalist thugs in Glasgow shows how this develops. Johnson's coup is not an accident or an end point its part of an ultra nationalist strategy worked out by Bannon and his ilk, as witnessed also in the US, by the mobilisation of white nationalists and ultras.

Bannon now has organisation across Europe, with centres coordinating ultra nationalist activity and strategy, to pursue the cause of National Bolshevism. Its well funded by the likes of the Koch Brothers and Russian oligarchs.

Dipper said...

The primary role of the government of a nation is to preserve the integrity and sovereignty of the nation. If a 'No Deal' exit is catastrophic, then the clear question is how come successive governments have failed to preserve the integrity of the UK and made us in effect a colony of the EU, where we have no choice but to accept Foreign rule over us.

So just because you as a Remainer think a bad 'No Deal' is bad for Brexit. don't think Leavers think so too. It will just be evidence of the way previous governments failed in their basic duty.

dermot said...

Agree Boffy in that whatever problems ROI has, UK will be a lot worse.

Just hope there's enough time between Brexit and GE for that reality to sink in.

Speedy said...

"So just because you as a Remainer think a bad 'No Deal' is bad for Brexit. don't think Leavers think so too. It will just be evidence of the way previous governments failed in their basic duty."

Thank you Dipper, for eloquently summing up the Leaver position.

Each of us has a psychological starting point, I don't doubt, which affects our perception. Because mine is from the Left (regardless what some of the numb nuts here think) I interpret it one way, you do another. For example, Phil expressed his lack of surprise that "democracy" would be hijacked with the prorogation - because there has never been much democracy here in the first place. Is that true? I dunno - it illustrates complacency, most of all I would say, by a culture that has not had to suffer invasion or revolution for quite some time and is used to resting on its laurels, ripe for plucking by a determined cabal.

Equally, your analysis: "The primary role of the government of a nation is to preserve the integrity and sovereignty of the nation. If a 'No Deal' exit is catastrophic, then the clear question is how come successive governments have failed to preserve the integrity of the UK and made us in effect a colony of the EU, where we have no choice but to accept Foreign rule over us."

is plainly balls. For eg, surely the sovereignty of the nation rests in Parliament, elected by the people (in 2017) which is being usurped. The second sentence is painfully obvious - because we have been a part of the largest market on earth. 'Foreign rule'? Are you kidding? Really? I resist the notion that all Leavers are stupid (some are clearly not) but that is so lacking in facts its embarrassing.

However, just as certain ideological positions warp perceptions one way, so they do the other. And just as there's no way anyone here could reason with WTF, neither can they with people with your mindset. Which is one reason why Remainers got it wrong from the outset - facts, truth, don't work. Something Cummings understood intuitively.

Anonymous said...

Previous governments didn't fail that basic duty. They were sensible enough to know that Brexit would be disastrous, and so didn't even contemplate it.

Britain was no more a colony of the EU, than Scotland or Yorkshire are colonies of England. Britain was more than an equal partner in the EU, and a major contributor to its policies and outlook. There are no EU decisions made by the EU that were not agreed by British politicians sitting in the Council of Ministers, and European Parliament. Many of the decisions were, in fact initiated by British politicians, such as the adoption of the Single Market, which was pushed forward by Thatcher and her government ministers.

George Carty said...

Speedy: "However, just as certain ideological positions warp perceptions one way, so they do the other. And just as there's no way anyone here could reason with WTF, neither can they with people with your mindset. Which is one reason why Remainers got it wrong from the outset - facts, truth, don't work. Something Cummings understood intuitively."

That doesn't mean that Remainers got it wrong, just that they lost the fight (thanks to decades of anti-EU propaganda in the Tory press) well before the referendum was announced.

To find a women attractive is misogny said...

I remember when public service employees raised the spectre of austerity and what the possible consequences could be, Boffy cynically claimed they were over-hyping the problems of austerity to try to get more cash from central government, he accused local authorities, the health service and the police of engaging in these tactics.

That brings me to an interview I watched today with a representative from the Road Haulage Association (you might remember them, they nearly brought the country to its knees with the fuel protests back in the Blair days, the upshot of which is we now subsidise their fuel costs!) who was raising the alarm bells over brexit and the representative finished off by saying the Road haulage companies would need significant cash from the, yes you guessed it, government.

I guess my question for ‘comrade’ Boffy is, why was he so cynical and doubtful and quick to poo poo when it came to claims made by public officials relating to problems associated with Austerity but he swallows hook line and sinker those claims made by the ever so honest and reliable Road Haulage Association in relation to Brexit?

Its a rhetorical question btw, I know exactly why!

Unknown said...

I'd offer an open ended extension, if I were them, and have done with it. That puts the ball permanently in Poundland Churchill's court

BCFG said...

Dipper said,

“then the clear question is how come successive governments have failed to preserve the integrity of the UK and made us in effect a colony of the EU, where we have no choice but to accept Foreign rule over us.”

In the above sentence from dipshit, sorry dipper, if you replace the word EU for the word Law and replace foreign with the word Laws, you can see the fallacy of the argument being made by dipper, sorry dipshit.

So the new sentence reads,

“then the clear question is how come successive governments have failed to preserve the integrity of the UK and made us in effect a colony of the Law, where we have no choice but to accept laws rule over us.”

Well my answer to that is that the law changes over time and to unravel all those laws and create new ones overnight is a tad problematical, not impossible, but certainly problematical. And you can forgive governments for allowing for the development of law, to take into account a changing world, among other things. Even if we disagree with this law or that law, in a 'democracy' there is supposed to be 'accountability', right? It isn't as if this was all done without scrutiny.

Simple really.