Friday 30 August 2019

Local Council By-Elections August 2019

This month saw 18,446 votes cast over nine local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Two council seats changed hands. For comparison with July's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
July
+/- Aug 18
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
            9
  5,486
    29.7%
 +2.2%
    -3.4%
    610
    -1
Labour
            8
  2,951
    16.0%
 +3.6%
   -14.0%
    369
    -1
LibDem
            8
  6,218
    33.7%
  -3.4%
    +8.7%
    777
   +1
UKIP
            2
    98
     0.5%
  -1.1%
     -0.9%
     49
     0
Green
            5
   779
     4.2%
 +2.0%
    +2.2%
    156
     0
SNP
            1
  1,582
     8.6%
 +8.6%
    +8.6%
   1,582
     0
PC**
            0
  
    

   
   
     0
Ind***
            1
   333
     1.8%
  -8.5%
     -7.2%
    333
     0
Other****
            3
   999
     5.4%
  -0.1%
    +5.4%
    333
   +1

* This month saw one by-election in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were no Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of the Brexit Party (163), Radcliffe First (824), and Scottish Libertarian (12)

August is usually a quiet month and therefore a boring month, and so it proved with just two council seats swapping tenants. But hold on just a moment, have Labour and the Liberal Democrats got their numbers mixed up? I am afraid not. Following last month their great summer surge has continued and they're top of the polling pops. What the actual heck is going on? A hang over from the four-party result of the EU elections perhaps? That's some of it, but before hope blossoms in LibDem hearts the more significant factor is ... a slew of by-elections in safe LibDem seats. When you look at the vote splits, they have certainly put support on, but don't let the results fool you into thinking it's about to replace the others as the numero uno party.

The first two weeks of September suggests next month is looking more 'conventional', so we'll see if this run of good fortune carries on.


1st August
Huntingdonshire DC, Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots, LDem hold
Stockport MB, Hazel Grove, LDem hold

8th August
Cambridge BC, Newnham, LDem hold
East Northamptonshire DC, Irthlingborough Waterloo, Con hold
Worcester BC, Claines, LDem gain from Con

15th August
Shropshire UA, Moele, Con hold

22nd August
Rugby BC, Rokeby & Overslade, LDem hold

29th August
Bury MBC, Radcliffe West, Oth gain from Lab
South Lanarkshire UA, East Kilbride Central North, SNP hold

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