Is this the End of Boris Johnson?

There is one way I'd like to see Boris Johnson go down in the history books: as the UK's shortest-serving Prime Minister. And you know what? It could happen. Surveying the wreckage from the Commons' votes of the last two days, Johnson is in a position arguably worse than any Theresa May found herself in. Hold on a minute, some might say, how can you even think this when the Tories are returning handsome leads in the polls and Johnson is getting much better approval numbers than Jeremy Corbyn? I can say it thanks to how he's boxed himself in.

Since appointing Dominic Cummings as his Chief of Staff, going from the chatter among professional Westminster watchers you'd be forgiven for thinking a Nosferatu of diabolic brilliance had got hired. He was the brains behind Vote Leave after all, the strategic genius who linked the EU to a range of simmering frustrations and ontological anxieties. Not so clever clever when you remember this is the game UKIP and Nigel Farage played for the best part of two decades, and whose pitches he lifted from their Arron Banks-bankrolled Leave.EU front. Nevertheless, because the lobby hacks are pack animals and of singular mind, the legend of Cummings filtered into their stilted collective consciousness and got reproduced as if gospel. And yet, and yet.

Cummings and Johnson are of the school that browbeating and bulldozing, shouting and shafting equals political leadership. And we can see where that gets them. Pushing an entirely contrived official optimism and shuttering parliament, backed up by threats might excite the editorial offices and the no deal brigade, but not if you're trying to hold a fractious party together in the face of divisive votes. And so, as we all know, Johnson humiliatingly suffered defeat in his first Commons vote, this afternoon his second, and tonight his third and fourth - the first time ever a new Prime Minister has been voted down in their first two parliamentary outings. let alone three and four. Already, Johnson has his place in the history books. And the fall out was the removal of the whip from 22 Tory MPs, affecting the worst split in the Tories since the foundation of the modern Conservative Party in 1836. The damage has rumbled through the party all afternoon, with the 1922 Committee hearing widespread displeasure against the expulsions and a letter going to Johnson from the so-called One Nation group demanding the reinstatement of the expellees as candidates at the next election. Barely six weeks into his premiership and the bad blood is coursing feverishly through the Tory body politic.

Perhaps it wouldn't have been this bad if Johnson's approach been less capricious. Definitely not if had he not enthusiastically embraced no deal and "borrowed" Jeremy Hunt's Brexit positioning, but when you're willing to gamble other people's fates for personal glory you can't complain when the bets don't fall your way. Which is exactly what has happened. For Johnson and Cummings had wagered they could burn their bridges with the remain-inclined Tories and cow the rest with macho displays of ruthless blue Stalinism, because the old would get flushed out during a general election. An election wouldn't be plain sailing, but promising to get Brexit done - and a no deal Brexit at that - would neutralise the Brexit Party and, presumably, take seats off Labour in the north (ah yes, the myth of the conservative "northern" working class refuses to die). The opposition, meanwhile, would be split. They didn't even consider the possibility Labour would not back their move to a general election, and so their hubris brings nemesis cantering in on its heels. Thanks to the Benn bill passing tonight, Johnson's tabling of a 15th October election under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was a dud long before the motion paper went to the printers and he received his fourth defeat out of four. It's a miscalculation so spectacular that some even think it's actually some galactic brainiac strategy.

Johnson then is in a trap of his own making. He only gets his election if he follows parliament's instruction and applies to extend Article 50, which would be a crushing embarrassment as well as the coup de grace on his premiership and the Tory party presently constituted. And as he's not going to do that, the chance of an election under what he and Cummings see as the most favourable circumstances the Tories are ever likely to get evaporate. Where now for Johnson? Where indeed. If the mega filibuster in the Lords fails and he refuses to be directed by legislation, then we're in the major constitutional crisis territory. It will involve the courts and perhaps even reach the point where the Queen is compelled to sack him. Which would be fun. Or, as is more likely, he'll try and resist its direction until parliament returns and it all kicks off then. In the event of the bill getting talked out, then nothing happens. He'll make repeated scenes about having his hands tied over conference season and try and set up his people versus parliament shtick, but the election won't happen before the next EU summit on 17th October. Either we then proceed to no deal with Johnson thoroughly owning it and scuppering the Tories over the medium to long-term much quicker than would otherwise be the case, or we get him refusing to implement the no deal legislation and, again, the possible activation of the Queen.

In the mean time, it's not enough for us to sit and wait for constitutional Twister to play out. The barracking and protesting, the campaigning and canvassing must carry on unabated. Action mobilises, and when the election storm finally does break, which it will at a time of Labour's and not Tories' choosing, there will be a large street army primed, ready to face whatever the Tories throw at us, and determined to be the end of Boris Johnson.