After the Week from Hell

Writing about Boris Johnson's record-breaking run of five defeats last Wednesday, it was nigh on impossible to believe his week could possibly get worse. Let's take this opportunity to pick over the ruin and humiliation, then. In addition to the defeats, which included the general election he's desperate to have, he lost one MP to the LibDems before sacking 21 of his fellow Tories, saw his filibuster of the Benn Bill fall apart in the Lords, had his cabinet papers released to the courts, the departure of his own brother because he couldn't stand what was happening, the resgination of Caroline Spelman, the threat he would go to prison if he did not follow the Article 50 extension instruction by October 19th, the resignation of Amber Rudd, and last of all Sajid Javid making the unconvincing case on this morning's Andrew Marr that the PM would never extend Article 50 while saying he would obey the law. Absolutely excruciating. It took Theresa May almost a year to hit the buffers. It's taken Johnson six weeks.

Despite "leaks" from the Downing Street bunker boasting of tactical setbacks to a strategic plan very much on-track, here's no obviously easy way out. Nigel Farage's offer of an electoral pact with the Tories is only something that can be cashed in after 31st October, and even then it could presage more splits in the parliamentary ranks. After tomorrow's session in the Commons prorogation comes into effect, ironically limiting Johnson's room for manoeuvre. The plan therefore is to try and call another election, which is sure to fail. The only alternatives are for Johnson to call a vote of no confidence in his own government, which is unlikely to be allowed on procedural grounds given recent precedent. Deary me.

A cornered beast is at its most dangerous, but what else can Johnson and the Tories do? Toughing it out ahead of the inevitable climb down at the EU summit in mid-October appears the most likely course. The PM will use the next few weeks to call his opponents every name under the sun and then some, and get his press allies to unleash the hounds of hell. The traitor/surrender rhetoric will ramp up and perhaps we'll see a stunt or provocation to try and goad the opposition into an election. None of which will work. The only other option is the kamikaze one that has acquired some traction among parts of politics Twitter. i.e. Resigning and letting Jeremy Corbyn step into the vacuum. The reasoning goes that paralysed by the Corbynphobia of the LibDems, the ex-Tories and continuity Change UK Corbyn will have no choice but to call an election in which Johnson can spearhead a Brexit insurgency, backed by the arrangements Nigel Farage repeatedly offers (to the point of desperation, it has to be said). The problem with this wheeze is despite the repeated baiting of Corbyn and emphasis on never backing Labour in government, it's difficult to see how the LibDems and other noted reluctants, like Plaid Cymru are ever going to say no to a general election or second referendum legislation. Especially with the possibility of the former passing with electoral reform amendments. In other words, a caretaker government wouldn't necessarily implode in the same way Johnson's six weeks in office have done. The second is Johnson's infamous vanity. He knows well there's only one thing the unhinged Tory base fear above else, and that's Jeremy Corbyn in Number 10. The idea he would voluntary cede control of the government to a man the right have relentlessly demonised for the last four years is poppycock. It's one thing for Johnson to get bested by him in the Commons and perhaps even defeated by a left-led Labour Party in a general election, quite another to virtually invite him to form an administration. This is the price they're unwilling to pay for their no deal fantasy, and Johnson isn't about to destroy his chances among them in exchange for a no deal Brexit.

However, Johnson does have other pressing concerns. His purge of the self-described Tory decents has caused a deal of disquiet on the government benches. Enough of his MPs are attached to the constitutional proprietaries of the Commons, and are worried about what his wrecking ball approach to matters might unleash. It's bad enough the Associations have seen all the awfuls who decamped to UKIP half a decade ago return, backed by a new influx of hardened leavers and thinly-disguised Brexit Party supporters. But to top if off with a formal arrangement with Farage's mob is more than too much. Therefore Johnson has to tread carefully lest there are more embarrassing resignations to come. Now this might be a cause for jubilation in the Dominic Cummings galaxy brain, but not from the standpoint of building a general election-winning coalition. Theresa May's own 2017 voter coalition was able to pull the bulk of (old) voters together for whom Brexit was ideological catnip, but her anti-Corbynism and rhetorical one nationism also kept on board the bulk of the right-leaning soft Tory supporters. Indeed, in vote terms the LibDems went backwards. Fast forward 27 months and Johnson's strategy is to build an election winning machine on the basis of Leave voters only. The problem with this is it means abandoning a swathe of marginals in Scotland, the South West and East, and London to the SNP, LibDems and Labour in the hope the Tories are going to take more old industrial seats, repeating the trick May managed when she scooped up the likes of Stoke South and Mansfield. The problem, which May learned to her cost, is the Labour leave vote is less motivated by Brexit than it is other issues. The idea Johnson has the kind of appeal that can reach into these places where May could not is risible.

More significant for Johnson is what the bloc of ex-Tories in the Commons now do. According to the Express, among others, up to a dozen of the purged are considering running as independent Tories. And would you Adam and Eve it, Jo Swinson is straight in there with a pact to stand LibDem candidates down in those seats. We'll leave the logic of a self-described remain party standing aside for pro-Brexit Tories for now, but what is does point to - especially if more abandon the sinking Johnson ship - is the possibility of a realignment on the right. For all her hypocrisy and opportunism, Swinson realises something the hapless Tim Farron was blind to and Uncle Vince only dimly grasped: that there are better pastures to be found for their politics on the right side of the fence. There is a real chance of affecting a historic split on the right between the populists and racists Johnson is courting, and a more moderate, Cameroon-style new centre right party with the LibDems at its core, or perhaps as its actual form, but with refugees from the Tories and from Labour on board. Embracing the anti-no deal moderate Tories, even if it means sacrificing your LGBT activists, is the game you're in if your eventual ambition is to displace the Tories as a sensible party of government. More expelled Tories mean more resources for Swinson, and more of a headache for Johnson.

After Johnson's week from hell then we find him out of options and out of sorts; a record holder for all the wrong reasons, and a strategy that has paid dividends for his opponents. It can't get much worse than this for the Prime Minister. But we've all thought that before.

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