The Shape of Tory Things to Come

As the floods have swamped parts of the Midlands and Northern England, it's becoming obvious the reception Boris Johnson has received during his "hands-on" photo opps visits are a growing calamity as fas as the Tory party's campaign is concerned. Whether having trouble working out how to use a mop in Matlock to initially refusing to engage with local south Yorkshire media to getting it in the ear from outraged residents, his performance was woeful. Johnson might have refused to declare the floods a national disaster, but that's sure what his campaign is looking like. Contrast this with the approach Jeremy Corbyn took, with swift calls for decisive action backed by properly funded flood prevention/management. Johnson has shown himself to be an utter shambles, and when push comes to shove he has to be forced to affect concern for ordinary people coping with disaster.

There's a strange pattern concerning Tory Prime Ministers and their response to these kinds of events. Back in early 2014, Dave was caught short in his response to the winter floods in the South West and parts of Wales. What didn't help matters was how the axe had fallen on flood defence spending during his watch thanks to his government's deficit monomania. Unsurprisingly, he wanted to avoid getting berated in public by an angry farmer ruined for the sake of pennies, or villages full of people forced from their homes by rising water. I'm sure all these people were positively glowing when Sajid Javid thanked the British people for their sacrifices during the years of public spending cuts.

And Theresa May too, you'll remember, was pilloried for her lacklustre response to the Grenfell fire tragedy. When the official visit finally took place and she spoke to residents, it was after Jeremy Corbyn had led the way and, incredibly, Andrea Leadsom. As May studiously avoided all but the most tightly controlled encounter with the general public in that year's election, even to the point of helicoptering in to a remote Scottish location without public transport links for a meeting with the Tory faithful, one can only imagine how she would have coped with a Grenfell family raw with grief and seething with anger that, again, penny pinching had cost the lives of friends and neighbours.

There's more than an inability to handle normal people going on here. If the Tories truly, genuinely believed their policies were doing the right thing they wouldn't be so shamefaced about being held to account for them. But they know their cuts and underfunding come with real costs borne by others. A flick of a pen here and the deletion of a budget line there can be washed down with a glass of port, but they absolutely hate it when the distance government and privilege affords collapses and truth of their decisions thrusts itself into their face. Out and about in inundated Yorkshire fields, a creature like Johnson knows he is exposed to the unknown. When everyone has a camera filming every move, handshake and conversation, the danger his crafted image might slip is ever present. And so it has proved. Small wonder it is now Conservative Party strategy not to go wall-to-wall with Johnson who, you will remember, won the leadership contest on account of his being an electoral asset.

In the grand scheme of things, is it going to matter? Readers will also recall that, in 2014, despite Tory culpability for the damage wrought on the South West how, just over a year later, the Liberal Democrats were turfed out of their strongholds. Save Bristol and Exeter the West Country was awash with Conservative blue. This time, however, the floods have just happened and given the forecasts the weather might get worse as the campaign grinds on. There's no chance of their disappearing down the memory hole. Now this doesn't mean that affected rural constituencies are bound to turn to Jeremy Corbyn in protest - though who wouldn't welcome the emergence of the shy Labour voter? - but it could suppress the Tory vote out of utter disgust with the government's couldn't-be-arsed response. This puts a hole in Johnson's so-called red wall strategy and calls into question their ability to take the seats that need to fall their way, which isn't at all helped by Nigel Farage's half-surrender either.

The floods are a terrible tragedy for all involved, but they are a foretaste of what is to come if Boris Johnson is returned with a majority. Haphazard, unfocused and everything-on-the-cheap spending on flood defence and essential infrastructure, zero action taken against factors exacerbating flooding, and a general care-free attitude so long as it doesn't impact Johnson's toffee-nosed kind of people is going to be our lot. You can't say we weren't warned in advance.

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