Local Council By-Elections November 2019

This month saw 42,944 votes cast over 24 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 11 council seats changed hands. For comparison with October's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Oct	+/- Nov 18	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	21	13,270	30.9%	-4.0%	-6.2%	632	-2
Labour	16	5,647	13.1%	-3.9%	-21.3%	353	-1
LibDem	18	8,011	18.7%	-3.7%	-1.6%	445	+1
UKIP	1	53	0.1%	-0.3%	-1.1%	53	0
Green	13	3,024	7.0%	+1.8%	+3.6%	233	+1
SNP	6	6,663	15.5%	+11.1%	+15.5%	1,116	0
PC**	3	698	1.6%	-0.2%	+1.6%	233	+1
Ind***	32	4,765	11.1%	+0.6%	+8.9%	149	0
Other****	9	713	1.7%	-1.6%	+0.0%	79	0

* There were six by-elections in Scotland
** There were three by-elections in Wales
*** There were five Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of the Brexit Party (168), Patria (9, 12), Putting Cumbria First (67), Scottish Libertarian (16, 28), Tunbridge Wells Alliance (180), Women's Equality Party (40, 193)

In all the years I've tracked local council by-elections, I can't remember a month like this one. Unfortunately, Labour's bad run of results continued. The only consolation to be take is how out of sync they are with national polling figures. And the Tories, while not riding high on a mahoosive percentage have the popular vote again because, well, they're monopolising the right wing vote. UKIP are dead to the point of getting discontinued from here when the new year rolls around, and the Brexit Party are far from a serious intervention. Just like the general election. The LibDems are maintaining their good performance as well, though I'm sure they'd happily trade this for a better national showing.

No, the weirdness first comes with the abnormally high number of Scottish by-elections. Probably the most since the latter stages of 2015 when all those SNP councillors took up Westminster seats. As Scottish wards tend to be larger they always poll very well, and that's put the squeeze on the overall results here. And the second is ... how many Independents? Helping matters along here were the two by-elections in Shetland where indies rule the roost and political parties are a rumour (apart from the SNP). And there was also the City of London contest which, by convention, is not contested by parties except for Labour. It's just funny peculiar they landed at the same time.

What can we take away from these results? The SNP vote is solid. The Tory vote is solid. Labour's and the LibDems'? The discrepency between by-election votes and polling might indicate a certain softness and fluidity. We find out in less than a fortnight.


7th November
Chelmsford DC, Marconi, LDem hold
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West, Ind gain from LDem
Croydon LBC, Fairfield, Lab hold
Pembrokeshire UA, Hundleton, Ind hold
Shetland UA, Lerwick South, Ind hold
Shetland UA, Shetland Central, Ind hold

12th November
City of London, Aldersgate, Lab hold

14th November
Eden DC, Shap, LDem gain from Con
Fife UA, Dunfermline Central, SNP gain from Con
Fife UA, Rosyth, SNP hold
Highland UA, Inverness Central, SNP hold
Neath Port Talbot UA, Rhos, PC gain from Lab
Powys UA, St Mary's, Lab gain from Con
Torbay UA, Goodrinton with Roselands, Con gain from LDem
Tunbridge Wells DC, Culverden, LDem gain from Con

21st November
Aberdeen UA, Torry and Ferryhill, SNP hold
Cardiff CC, Llanishen, Con gain from Lab
Chichester DC, Loxwood, Con hold
Moray UA, Keith and Cullen, Con gain from SNP
West Lancashire DC, Birch Green, Lab hold
West Sussex CC, Bourne, Con hold

28th November
North Norfolk, Sheringham North, LDem hold
Oxfordshire CC, Wallingford, Grn gain from Ind
Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Lambrook, LDem gain from Con