Friday 23 December 2022

Quarter Four By-Election Results 2022

This quarter 107,002 votes were cast over 71 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 33 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter three's results here.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q3  22
+/- Q4 2021
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         63
30,524
   28.5%
  -1.8
     -2.9
   485
  -13
Labour
         61
32,878
   30.7%
  -1.5
    +3.8
   539
   +8
LibDem
         51
16,304
   15.2%
  -2.3
     -4.2
   320
   +6
Green
         31
 9,062
    8.5%
 +1.4
     -0.3
   292
    -1
SNP*
          5
 5,378
    5.0%
 +4.3
    +2.4
 1,076
   +1
PC**
          2
  347
    0.3%
  -0.7
     -0.3
   174
   +1
Ind***
         32
11,427
   10.7%
 +2.0
    +2.7
   357
     0
Other****
         16
 1,082
    1.0%
  -1.5
     -1.9
    68
    -2


* There were five by-elections in Scotland
** There were three by-elections in Wales
*** There were four Independent clashes
**** Others this quarter consisted of Alba (90, 81), Freedom Alliance (18), National Housing Party (59), Reform UK (144), Residents for Guildford and Villages (185), Scottish Socialist Party (46), TUSC (45, 23, 63, 26), UKIP (55, 19, 34), Vectis Party (36), Workers' Party (158)

Another good quarter for Labour. The third one in a row in that has seen it win the popular vote, the narrative that it's finally on its way to winning the next general election are supported by results like this. There's no reason to expect this encouraging run for Labour is going to exhaust itself, as Rishi Sunak and the Tories are beset on all sides by opposition and crises.

The Liberal Democrats will also he happy that their performance in actual elections is well in excess of their national polling figures. To a lesser extent this applies to the Greens too, even if they dropped one councillor in the quarter. Looking ahead to the next few months the opposition parties will continue to do well and the Tories are going to carry on bleeding.

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