Friday 30 September 2022

Quarter Three Local By-Election Results 2022

This quarter 80,068 votes were cast over 52 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Please note one seats was an unfilled vacancies, so councillor gains/losses won't tally. For comparison you can view Quarter two's results here.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q2  22
+/- Q3 2021
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         50
24,251
   30.3%
 +0.8
     -4.0
   485
  -11
Labour
         47
25,826
   32.2%
  -5.3
    +8.0
   549
   +4
LibDem
         37
13,981
   17.5%
  -0.5
    +0.8
   378
   +3
Green
         27
 5,682
    7.1%
  -0.6
     -3.7
   210
   +4
SNP*
          1
  525
    0.7%
 +0.6
     -4.4
   525
     0
PC**
          2
  803
    1.0%
 +0.7
    +1.0
   402
     0
Ind***
         27
 6,983
    8.7%
 +2.1
    +3.6
   259
   +1
Other****
         19
 2,017
    2.5%
 +2.1
     -0.4
   106
     0


* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were two by-elections in Wales
*** There were three Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Abolish the BBC Television Licence (61), Alliance for Democracy and Freedom (91), Bolton for Change (24), Coventry Citizens (746, 92), Freedom Alliance (15), Monster Raving Loony (30), National Housing Party No More Refugees (1), Reform UK (36, 37), Residents' Association of Epsom and Ewell (549), TUSC (46, 71, 8, 125, 8), UKIP (46), Welsh Independence (8), Women's Equality Party (27)

Not as bad as last quarter, but 11 councillors down doesn't make for happy reading for any Tory supporter. Just wait for the final quarter. Fun fact, it's been a year since the Tories emerged from a quarter with a net gain. It's also the second quarter on the trot Labour has won the popular vote. That doesn't happen very often.

Given the way the polls are, and Liz Truss's seeming desire to compound her errors (the lady's not for turning, or a permutation thereof), the direct of Tory travel is downward. The only question is how many local councillors are going to pay the blood price? Building on what we saw last quarter, it's likely the electorate will reach for whichever party is best placed to see the Tories off. Not a great time to be a Conservative candidate.

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