Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/-
Oct |
+/- Nov 21
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
27
| 11.312 |
26.4%
| -2.4 |
-0.9
|
419
|
-9
|
Labour
|
29
| 13,046 |
30.6%
| -2.3 |
-1.1
| 450
|
+6
|
Lib Dem
|
17
| 5,349
|
12.5%
| -7.7 |
-7.1
|
315
|
0
|
Green
|
12
| 3,881
|
9.1%
| +0.2
|
-1.7
|
323
|
0
|
SNP*
|
3
| 2,923 |
6.8%
| +6.8 |
+6.8
|
974
|
+1
|
PC**
|
1
| 56 |
0.1%
| -0.7 |
-0.9
|
56
|
0
|
Ind***
|
13
| 5,650 |
13.2%
|
-6.9
|
435
|
+2
| |
Other****
|
8
|
1.1%
| -0.2 |
-2.4
|
60
|
0
|
* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were no Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Alba (90), Freedom Alliance (18), National Housing Party (59), Reform UK (144), Scottish Socialist Party (46), TUSC (63), UKIP (19), Vectis Party (36)
The popular vote might not be all that, but this is Labour's best electoral performance since May. For many years Tory held seats appeared resistant to the charms of the official opposition, but now the Conservatives are ceding seats to Labour faster than Vladimir Putin is giving ground to Ukraine in Kherson. As local election support shifts to reflect the facts of political life registered by national polling we can only expect more retreats in the future. It was also a very busy month for the Independents, who did well by scooping up a couple of seats and getting a pile of votes in some places. That skews the overall polling figures and depresses the vote share of the main parties.
That brings me on to some discourse circulating on social media about Labour's performance in by-elections. The argument goes like this: Labour's real lead is nowhere near that reported by the polling firms because the votes it's getting in by-elections fall short. This is a nonsense argument. One, the main parties' votes can be depressed as outlined above. It's very unlikely sundry independent candidates will get six per cent of the vote in a general election. Second is a sociological point. Who votes in local council by-elections? As older people are more likely to turn out in first order elections, if anything this is amplified in elections that are seen not to matter so much. As we know, older people are more likely to vote Conservative so, if anything, council by-elections give them a significant advantage. And yet they're slipping and dropping seats right, left, and centre. If the Tories are falling back here, imagine how much worse they would be doing if younger layers of voters turned out at the same rate as the older ones.
As we head into December then, the omens aren't looking good across the 24 by-election contests and the eight seats the Tories are defending.
3 November
Croydon, Selsdon Vale & Forestdale, Con hold
Lichfield, Chasetown, Lab gain from Con
Moray, Buckie, SNP gain from LDem
Nottinghamshire, Eastwood, Ind gain from Con
South Cambridgeshire, Longstanton, LDem hold, Con gain from LDem
Wiltshire, Salisbury St Paul's, LDem gain from Con
10 November
Braintree, Braintree South, Lab gain from Con
Braintree, Coggeshall, Ind hold
Broxtowe, Greasley, Con hold
Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood, Lab gain from Con
Cannock Chase, Cannock West, Con hold
East Devon, Newton Poppleford & Harpford, Ind hold
King's Lynn & West Norfolk, Gaywood Clock, Lab hold
Kingston-upon-Thames, Green Lane & St James, Ind gain from LDem
South Kesteven, Bourne East, Con hold
South Kesteven, Grantham St Wulfram's, Con hold
17 November
Bolsover, Pinxton, Lab hold
Blackburn with Darwen, Darwen South, Lab gain from Con
Blackpool, Greenlands, Lab gain from Con
Glasgow, Linn, Lab hold
Oldham, Hollinwood, Lab hold
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Abercynon, Lab hold
Shetland, Shetland West, Ind hold
Suffolk, Beccles, Grn hold
23 November
Ashfield, Hucknall Central, Ind hold
24 November
Bassetlaw, Sutton, Lab gain from Con
Isle of Wight, Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet, LDem gain from Con
Sefton, Linacre, Lab hold
Warrington, Rixton & Woolston, Con hold
30 November
Surrey, Sunbury Common & Ashford Common, LDem gain from Con
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2 comments:
One, the main parties' votes can be depressed as outlined above. It's very unlikely sundry independent candidates will get six per cent of the vote in a general election. Second is a sociological point. Who votes in local council by-elections?"
But the comparison to make is with last year's by elections and there is very little evidence in that of thatcherite voters switching to "progressive" thatcherites. Even if by elections are a traditional vehicle for voters to make protest votes.
«But the comparison to make is with last year's by elections [...] Even if by elections are a traditional vehicle for voters to make protest votes.»
Here I mean with last year's (and previous years) *local* by-elections.
The relatively but not very recent parliamentary by-elections showed a lot of protest voting, mostly benefiting the "progressive" thatcherite LibDems though.
«and there is very little evidence in that of thatcherite voters switching»
There is some though in the national polls, but not huge, more of a huge switch to not-Con, not-NuLab.
Also yes local council seats have been switching, but that's probably very marginal seats, but something like that could be enough to give Starmer a majority of seats: after all that was New Labour's winning recipe in 2001 and 2005, where Blair's electoral toxicity (already detectable in the fall in polls on the switch in leadership from Smith to Blair) resulted in massive losses of votes, but somehow the Conservatives managed to lose even more.
That is probably Starmer's fondest hope: to make sure that New Labour loses a lot of "trot" votes, but for the Conservatives to lose even more to abstention and the LibDems that he gets a majority of seats on voter numbers well below those of Corbyn; not many realize that Blair or Brown (or Cameron) got less votes than Corbyn (except in 1997, and not by much), and that both in 2017 and 2019 Corbyn would have won huge seat landslides if the Conservatives he faced had been as unpopular as those Blair and Brown were lucky to face in 1997, 2001, 2005.
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