Spagna - Call Me

There is a post bubbling under. Honest, guv! But we're having a bit of a film night this evening so here's a cheesy placeholder for your delight/despair.

Local Council By-Elections August 2025

This month saw 34,125 votes cast in 15 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 10 council seats changed hands. For comparison with July's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Jul	+/- Aug 24	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	16	4,777	14.0%	-4.6	-6.9	299	-4
Labour	14	7,184	21.1%	+4.5	-8.2	513	-5
Lib Dem	13	5,248	15.4%	-2.7	+3.9	404	+2
Reform*	16	8,794	25.8%	-2.1	+19.2	550	+5
Green	12	2,948	8.6%	-0.4	-0.9	246	+2
SNP**	1	1,142	3.3%	+3.3	-6.4	1,142	0
PC***	2	1,128	3.3%	+1.5	+1.1	564	0
Ind****	10	2,218	6.5%	-1.3	-2.2	221	0
Other*****	9	686	2.0%	+1.7	+0.5	76	0

* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There was one by-elections in Scotland
*** There were three by-elections in Wales
**** There were two Independent clashes
***** Others in June consisted of Abolish Holyrood (27), Brixtowe Alliance (275), Gwlad (6), Pirate Party (11), Propel (327), TUSC (29, 1), UKIP (5), Workers' Party (15)

And the Tories come fourth with a truly terrible share of aggregate votes. Not quite the worst as the 13.1% recorded in April this year is their floor. So far. And so having spent the entire month sounding like the BNP to try and outdo Reform has paid obvious dividends on the council front. Another pitiful month for Labour too, though it does have the consolation of popping its head above the 20% barrier this month. Meanwhile, the Greens and Lib Dems will be pleased with their performances and, with weary predicability, Nigel Farage comes out on top. Albeit with a second month in vote share fall.

It's worth remembering that Reform's performance is not a reflection of growing support, but rather by-elections catching up with the opinion polling shift that has already taken place. And what that tells us is, bearing in mind that elderly voters disproportionately turn out for council by-elections, that the Tory goose is well and truly cooked. But given how far they've shifted to the right, are there any meaningful political differences between them and Reform? No. The only real difference is the latter is far more credible with right wing voters where delivering their hateful agenda is concerned. Meaning that the space for the Conservative is rapidly evaporating.

7 August
Cannock Chase, Hednesford Green Heath, Ref gain from Lab
Carmarthenshire, Llangennech, Ref gain from Lab
Durham, Easington & Shotton, Ref hold

14 August
Cardiff, Grangetown, Grn gain from Lab
Newcastle, South Jesmond, Grn gain from Lab

21 August
Doncaster, Bentley, Ref hold
East Hampshire, Alton Amery, LDem hold
East Renfrewshire, Barrhead, Liboside & Uplawmoor, Lab hold
Gwynedd, Abermaw, Ind hold
Hounslow, Cranford, Lab hold
Runnymede, Addlestone South, Ref gain from Con x2
Surrey, Addlestone, Ref gain from Con
Surrey, Hinchley Wood, Claygate & Oxshott, LDem gain from Con

28 August
Broxtowe, Nuthall East & Strelley, Con hold
Camden, West Hampstead, LDem gain from Lab

Some Changes

A few days ago, on the the previous post someone anonymously asked if I was still alive. Hopefully, this will be evidence enough.

The truth of the matter is that I've hit burn out. Part of this is personal. Last year, my mother-in-law unexpectedly and suddenly passed away, and since Christmas my mum has been seriously ill and in and out of hospital. Her recovery has been long and complicated.

Then there is work. Over the last couple of years I've been preoccupied with what Lenin called the purely administrative side of things, and that has allowed for little time to think about scholarly activity and reading new stuff. And then this summer our place announced a raft of redudancies, which included the deletion of my post. Thankfully, following redeployment I've been able to survive but securing this was stressful, tiring, and demanded a lot of work.

And now we come to the politics. It is equally astonishing and unsurprising that this government has overseen the normalisation of the BNP's language from 15 years ago, has heralded anti-asylum seeker protests organised and led by fascist micro-sects as expressing "legitimate concerns", and even today refused to criticise Nigel Farage's plan to seek deals with the Taliban to deport Afghans. This isn't a "they know not what they do" moment, rather Keir Starmer, Morgan McSweeney, and Yvette Cooper have contrived this situation. They've unlocked the cage and stupidly believe they can ride the racist tiger to their own advantage.

This comes on top of what you might call post-hegemonic politics. This government is transparently venal, and the few crumbs it has brushed off its freebie-strewn table - watered down improvements to workers' rights, children's breakfast clubs, reduced NHS waiting times - does nothing to hide the cabinet's chummy relationships with America tech oligarchs and the City. Starmer and friends actually pride themselves on these relationships. And there is the arming an ongoing genocide and providing the Israeli military aerial surveillance from flights out of Cyprus. This is bourgeois politics at its most naked, and requires little in the way of additional comment.

And lastly, there are long-term tendencies in media consumption. Since 2020, audiences here have been in steady decline while, ironically, the popualar appetite for political content has grown. Did people get bored of my banging on about the decline of the Tories? Perhaps. But more likely is the ongoing crowding out of written material by YouTube, TikTok, and podcasting. This wouldn't be as bad if I could track views, but thanks to LLMs continually picking over thousands of blog posts the stats package has become completely unreliable.

Those are your reasons why posts have become rarer than a political principle on the government's front bench. But I don't plan throwing the towel in entirely. The 'some changes' advertised atop this post will, I hope, mean a change from long periods of silence to more frequent posts. But certainly not at the level of recent years.

Yet I don't want to finish this on a downer. Despite the complete moral collapse of mainstream politics, there are reasons to be cheerful. As the consequences of immaterial labour work their way through culture, the establishment and their political retainers in Labour, Reform, and the Tories are increasingly out of step with the lives and outlook of everyday folk. And the most recent manifestation of this disconnect are the huge numbers the Jeremy Corbyn/Zarah Sultana Your Party project has attracted - a potentially mammoth formation that could upend British politics and threaten to undo the class settlement of the last 50 years. With such an historic opportunity knocking, it's not like there's a shortage of things to write about.

Rachel Reeves's Pitiful Attack on Corbyn

Being the object of Rachel Reeves's criticism is like getting gummed by a toothless sheep. Nevertheless, her "scathing" broadside against Jeremy Corbyn interests because, in a few sentences, she encapsulates the outlook and politics of the Labour right.

Speaking at the Edinburgh Fringe and asked about her opinion on Corbyn's emerging new left party, the Chancellor said "Jeremy Corbyn has had two chances to be prime minister and I think the country gave their verdict, most recently in 2019 when Labour had its worst result since 1935 ... He tried to destroy my party and he can now go set up his own party ... The country has rejected him twice. The bloke’s got a big ego. He can have another go but I think the country will have the same verdict.”

It's always funny when the likes of Reeves bring up the "worst result" line. Because, as we know, this nadir in Labour's recent parliamentary fortunes still secured more public support than Keir's Starmer's super spectacular victory. It was only the collapse of the Tories and the Reform surge that gave the 2024 election the first-glance appearance of a Labour triumph. She knows this too, and so do all the journalists who've praised Starmer's pragmatism and genuflected to Morgan McSweeney's hyped up genius. It's almost as if there's a conspiracy of silence that refuses to ask questions or acknowledge the problems with the election result.

That Reeves should accuse Corbyn of nearly destroying the Labour Party sounds a bit like projection too. Always a politician who has to get other people to do the organising for her, Reeves kept her head down during the Corbyn years. But she was party to the destructive behaviour that ensured a left-led Labour never got a clear run at the Tories. And, in the summer of 2016, she was on the side of the isolated parliamentary party that not only tried to topple Corbyn, but threatened to split the party with its tacit endorsement of the court case seeking to bar Corbyn from running again. And that's just for starters.

Since assuming office, Reeves has showcased a singular lack of judgement. Coming for the winter fuel allowance, then attacking disabled people, and sapping small businesses through her increase of employer National Insurance contributions, she more than any other front bencher is arguably responsible for the collapse in Labour's polling. Yes, even more than the Prime Minister.

Lastly, Reeves alights upon Corbyn's ego. The Labour right have convinced themselves that he is a preening narcissist, probably because they can't imagine that someone might be motivated to do something about poverty because they're against poverty, as opposed to it looking good for the TV cameras. And this to come from a woman who has better things to do than write her own books, and is so conscious of her place in the history books as the first female chancellor that she can't stop boasting about it, seldom do we see a clearer example of an accusation being a confession.

As you may have noticed, what was absent from her remarks was politics. Reeves can't offer a political critique of a new left party because, for her, there are no politics outside of tailing the Bank of England, doffing her cap to the bosses that might give her a nice post-politics job, and having cosy chats with establishment stenographers. She typifies the Labour right entirely. In recent days, rather than stand up to Nigel Farage's division-stoking "Lawless Britain" tour and the efforts of sundry far right groups to stir up a repeat of last year's racist riots, we see Angela Eagle affirming that those protesting outside of refugee hostels have genuine concerns. And then we had Peter Kyle and Jess Phillips likening Reform's opposition to the Online Safety Act as "enabling modern day Jimmy Saviles". When you look at who was the chief crown prosecutor at the time, I'm guessing they haven't thought about the consequences of dwelling on this.

The Labour right do not have the ability or the nous to take on their opponents to their left and their right, because they got to the top by lying, chicanery, and bureaucratic manoeuvring. That was enough to win them the Labour Party and, from there, an election through fortuitous circumstances. But as Reeves's lobbing of duds at the left have shown, none of them have a clue about how to defend their position. And it's this that will do for them in the end.

Image Credit

Local Council By-Elections July 2025

This month saw 67,757 votes cast in 38 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 17 council seats changed hands. For comparison with June's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Jun	+/- Jul 24	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	38	12,577	18.6%	+3.8	-0.9	331	-2
Labour	33	11,214	16.6%	-0.7	-24.2	340	-5
Lib Dem	31	12,259	18.1%	+0.9	+3.3	395	0
Reform*	36	18,900	27.9%	-3.3	+26.3	525	+8
Green	31	6,115	9.0%	-0.9	-4.6	197	-1
SNP**	0						0
PC***	5	1,204	1.8%	+1.8	+1.8	241	0
Ind****	15	5,283	7.8%	+0.5	-0.3	352	0
Other*****	6	205	0.3%	-0.4	-1.0	34	0

* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There were no by-elections in Scotland
*** There were five by-elections in Wales
**** There was one Independent clash
***** Others in June consisted of Communist Party of Britain (9), SDP (13, 11), TUSC (26), Vectis Party (46), Yorkshire Party (100)

Once again, a set of results that looks like a PeoplePolling survey. Reform are way out in the front with the other three parties scrapping for a distant second. What a pitiful spectacle. But the eagle-eyed might have spotted something interesting in the numbers. Yes, this was the first time Reform lost vote share since its post-election take off started. And it lost the three seats it was defending too. Straws in the wind for those hoping to see the momentum of their local efforts slow down, but it is worthwhile noting in case it becomes the start of a trend.

As for the other parties, the Liberal Democrats performed creditably but the same cannot be said for the Tories or Labour. Both are turning in tallies more suited to third parties than that befitting the traditional parties of government. And while they're knocking around historic lows, it's worth noting the dying Conservatives are at least putting up a fight. They're down overall on seats, yet they still took four from other parties this month - including two off Reform. Labour? When was the last time they won a seat from anyone? A glance at the last several months' worth of voting suggests all Nigel Farage's lot have to do is show up for Labour to hand the seat over to them. As the government party they could do something about this, such as introducing policies that might improve people's standard of livings, renovate public services, and undercut the purchase extreme right wing politics have. But there's absolutely no sign of that happening.

2 July
North Tyneside, Killingworth, Ref gain from Lab
North Tyneside, Longbenton & Benton, Lab hold

3 July
Bath & North East Somerset, Mendip, LDem hold
Durham, Benfieldside, LDem gain from Ref
Gedling, Calverton, Ind gain from Con
Hammersmith & Fulham, Fulham Town, Con hold
Nottinghamshire, Newark West, Con gain from Ref
Powys, Llanidloes, LDem hold
Suffolk, Tower, Ref gain from Con

10 July
Bassetlaw, Ranskill, Ref gain from Con
Hartlepool, Throston, Ref gain from Lab
Isle of Wight, Wroxall, Lowtherville & Bonchurch, Ind hold
Mole Valley, Bookham East & Eastwick Park, LDem hold
Rotherham, Keppel, Ref gain from Lab
Surrey, Woking South, LDem hold
Tewkesbury, Northway, Ref gain from Ind
Vale of White Horse, Botley & Sunningwell, LDem hold
Wealden, Horam & Punnetts Town, Grn hold
Woking, Hoe Valley, LDem hold

17 July
Basildon, St Martin's, Ref gain from Lab
Dartford, Maypole & Leyton Cross, Ref gain from Con
Dartford, Stone House, Ref gain from Con
Denbighshire, Prestatyn Central, Con hold
Harborough, Market Harborough Logan, Con gain from LDem
Liverpool, Sefton Park, Grn hold
Neath Port Talbot, Baglan, Lab hold
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Pontypridd Town, PC hold
Staffordshire, Eccleshall & Gnosall, Con gain from Ref

24 July
Bromley, Bromley Common & Holwood, Ref gain from Con
Cardiff, Llanrumney, Lab hold
Dacorum, Berkhamsted West, LDem hold
Dorset, Swanage, Con hold
Hertsmere, Borehamwood Brookmeadow, Con hold
Lichfield, Alrewas & Fradley, Con hold
Rutland, Barleythorpe, Con gain from Grn

31 July
Barking & Dagenham, Thames View, Lab hold
North Devon, Barnstaple with Westacott, LDem hold
Warrington, Bewsey & Whitecross, Ref gain from Lab