Rayner in Danger

Her future is now in the hands of the government's independent standards commissioner, but if Angela Rayner's account of how she "forgot" to pay £40k in stamp duty is found to be substantially true, it's unlikely she'll have to resign from cabinet. Nevertheless, buying an £850k des res while holding the policy brief for overcoming Britain's housing crisis was a bad look to start with, reinforcing the popular perception that politicians are on the make. And reckless too, what with the historic low levels of support this government had to start with that have only got worse since.

The problem Rayner has is her role in government is not only to bring an otherwise staid operation a touch of colour, it's to blast the Tories over their rank hypocrisies. Such as around dodging tax. Even if the standards process exonerates her, it's not likely she'll front any attacks on this any time soon. At Prime Minister's Questions today, Keir Starmer made a public show of backing his deputy and, in another absence of tactical nous, Kemi Badenoch largely left the issue alone. But from Starmer's standpoint, losing Rayner would be a calamity - despite his backroom boys having previously had fun attacking her base in the party.

Unlike Starmer's relationship to Rachel Reeves, there has long been tension between leader and deputy but more recently it has proven productive. The PM brings (or, rather, brought) the vibes of managerial competence and Mr Rules probity, while Rayner can convincingly appear authentic - more so than other cabinet continuity Blairites from similarly humble backgrounds. And when it comes to elections, Rayner's easy-going charisma is a boon for a government of empty suits and non-personalities. Without the cover she provides, it's difficult to see any other Labour figure filling her shoes and belting out the John-Prescott-in-a-skirt numbers. Without her, Labour in office appears even more alienating and divorced from the working people it it affects to represent.

The Tories, however, are cock-a-hoop. Their hostility to Rayner isn't simply snobbery. After all, until recently there were a few working class Conservatives that sat on their benches. Rather, despite her patchy politics that swing between the soft left and the stupidities of Blue Labour, what irks the Tories and the leader writers of the unhinged right wing press is what she represents: the presence of trade unions in political life. For these people, the very hint of working class collectivism, no matter how diluted, is something our hyper class conscious gatekeepers of permissible politics cannot stomach. For them, the prize of Rayner's departure is not so much getting rid of a key prop of Starmer's premiership but the sinking of the workers' rights agenda she has championed. How likely would that be taken up with any enthusiasm by a replacement?

Given the stale set of promises Labour were elected on, and how much this government is already subsumed by capital's interests, we're in the less than optimal situation where the watered down promises to improve workers' rights might rest on Rayner's beleaguered shoulders alone. And it's for this reason, and this reason only, why we should be careful about cheering on her departure.

Image Credit