Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Jun
|
+/- Jul 24
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
38
| 12,577 |
18.6%
| +3.8 |
-0.9
|
331
|
-2
|
Labour
|
33
| 11,214 |
16.6%
| -0.7 |
-24.2
| 340
|
-5
|
Lib Dem
|
31
| 12,259
|
18.1%
| +0.9 |
+3.3
|
395
|
0
|
Reform*
|
36
| 18,900
|
27.9%
| -3.3 |
+26.3
|
525
| +8
|
Green
|
31
| 6,115
|
9.0%
| -0.9
|
-4.6
|
197
|
-1
|
SNP**
|
0
|
0
| |||||
PC***
|
5
| 1,204 |
1.8%
| +1.8 |
+1.8
| 241
|
0
|
Ind****
|
15
| 5,283 |
7.8%
|
-0.3
|
352
|
0
| |
Other*****
|
6
|
0.3%
| -0.4 |
-1.0
|
34
|
0 |
* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There were no by-elections in Scotland
*** There were five by-elections in Wales
**** There was one Independent clash
***** Others in June consisted of Communist Party of Britain (9), SDP (13, 11), TUSC (26), Vectis Party (46), Yorkshire Party (100)
Once again, a set of results that looks like a PeoplePolling survey. Reform are way out in the front with the other three parties scrapping for a distant second. What a pitiful spectacle. But the eagle-eyed might have spotted something interesting in the numbers. Yes, this was the first time Reform lost vote share since its post-election take off started. And it lost the three seats it was defending too. Straws in the wind for those hoping to see the momentum of their local efforts slow down, but it is worthwhile noting in case it becomes the start of a trend.
As for the other parties, the Liberal Democrats performed creditably but the same cannot be said for the Tories or Labour. Both are turning in tallies more suited to third parties than that befitting the traditional parties of government. And while they're knocking around historic lows, it's worth noting the dying Conservatives are at least putting up a fight. They're down overall on seats, yet they still took four from other parties this month - including two off Reform. Labour? When was the last time they won a seat from anyone? A glance at the last several months' worth of voting suggests all Nigel Farage's lot have to do is show up for Labour to hand the seat over to them. As the government party they could do something about this, such as introducing policies that might improve people's standard of livings, renovate public services, and undercut the purchase extreme right wing politics have. But there's absolutely no sign of that happening.
2 July
North Tyneside, Killingworth, Ref gain from Lab
North Tyneside, Longbenton & Benton, Lab hold
3 July
Bath & North East Somerset, Mendip, LDem hold
Durham, Benfieldside, LDem gain from Ref
Gedling, Calverton, Ind gain from Con
Hammersmith & Fulham, Fulham Town, Con hold
Nottinghamshire, Newark West, Con gain from Ref
Powys, Llanidloes, LDem hold
Suffolk, Tower, Ref gain from Con
10 July
Bassetlaw, Ranskill, Ref gain from Con
Hartlepool, Throston, Ref gain from Lab
Isle of Wight, Wroxall, Lowtherville & Bonchurch, Ind hold
Mole Valley, Bookham East & Eastwick Park, LDem hold
Rotherham, Keppel, Ref gain from Lab
Surrey, Woking South, LDem hold
Tewkesbury, Northway, Ref gain from Ind
Vale of White Horse, Botley & Sunningwell, LDem hold
Wealden, Horam & Punnetts Town, Grn hold
Woking, Hoe Valley, LDem hold
17 July
Basildon, St Martin's, Ref gain from Lab
Dartford, Maypole & Leyton Cross, Ref gain from Con
Dartford, Stone House, Ref gain from Con
Denbighshire, Prestatyn Central, Con hold
Harborough, Market Harborough Logan, Con gain from LDem
Liverpool, Sefton Park, Grn hold
Neath Port Talbot, Baglan, Lab hold
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Pontypridd Town, PC hold
Staffordshire, Eccleshall & Gnosall, Con gain from Ref
24 July
Bromley, Bromley Common & Holwood, Ref gain from Con
Cardiff, Llanrumney, Lab hold
Dacorum, Berkhamsted West, LDem hold
Dorset, Swanage, Con hold
Hertsmere, Borehamwood Brookmeadow, Con hold
Lichfield, Alrewas & Fradley, Con hold
Rutland, Barleythorpe, Con gain from Grn
31 July
Barking & Dagenham, Thames View, Lab hold
North Devon, Barnstaple with Westacott, LDem hold
Warrington, Bewsey & Whitecross, Ref gain from Lab
4 comments:
And Labour just pulled in their lowest ever poll result, I believe?
Something something real meaningful change grown-up decisions it takes time black hole Conservatives' fault something something
«Labour? When was the last time they won a seat from anyone? [...] As the government party they could do something about this, such as introducing policies that might improve people's standard of livings»
My usual comment when I read this generic claims: the government of the past 40 years have introduced many policies that have much improved standards of living, those of middle-class and upper-class voters, thanks to cheaper wages and rising property incomes. The rest apparently do not matter, and since the improvement in standards of living of middle-class and upper-class voters is entirely redistributive, they got to pay for that.
If the government want to stop "Middle England" from making a protest vote for Farage or abstention they have to pump up property prices again, as property price stagnation was what "Middle England" voters switch their vote away from the Conservatives in protest:
https://blissex.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/dataukhousingprices2020-2024.png
https://blissex.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/polihousingoldpeoplebigmoney.jpg
«renovate public services, and undercut the purchase extreme right wing politics have. But there's absolutely no sign of that»
But that would a betrayal of thatcherism! The historic missions of Blair and Starmer and their ilk is to ensure that "There Is No Alternative". Therefore all main parties are thatcherite (3 are "woke- thatcherites" and 1 is "trad-thatcherite"). Probably "Your Party" is not going to be thatcherite, but if it gets any traction it will be severely punished like Corbyn (and Salmond etc.) was.
Think the Sultana/Corbyn party should just be called NEMESIS.
Yeah, no.
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