Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Feb
|
+/- Mar 24
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
20
| 7,268 |
20.2%
| -3.8 |
+3.2
|
363
|
0
|
Labour
|
17
| 7,603 |
21.1%
| -3.1 |
-1.1
| 447
|
-4
|
Lib Dem
|
19
| 5,245
|
14.6%
| -4.6 |
-6.5
|
276
|
0
|
Reform*
|
19
| 5,785
|
16.1%
| -3.3 |
+16.1
|
304
|
0
|
Green
|
15
| 3,297
|
9.2%
| +2.2
|
-3.4
|
220
|
0
|
SNP**
|
3
| 3,190 |
8.9%
| +5.3 |
+3.0
| 737
|
+2
|
PC***
|
1
| 397 |
1.1%
| +1.1 |
-0.1
| 1,063
|
0
|
Ind****
|
5
| 2,514 |
7.0%
|
-12.1
|
503
|
+2
| |
Other*****
|
9
|
1.9%
| +1.1 |
+1.0
|
75
|
0 |
* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There were three by-elections in Scotland
*** There were two by-elections in Wales
**** There were no Independent clashes
***** Others this month consisted of Alba (135), Gwlad (14, 3), Rejoin EU (114), Scottish Socialist Party (271), SDP (14), TUSC (52), UKIP (41, 24)
Another set of vote tallies that look a bit like current polling, except the Conservative and Labour votes are even more depressed. Lack of enthusiasm for their offerings? Yes, but because these are local elections the ridiculous votes scored by the larger Scottish council wards and two very strong Independent challenges have served to push all the votes down. Don't get celebrating that first reduction in the Reform vote just yet.
A couple of things worth noting. The rise of Reform has meant more options for right wing voters, so those who might have given the Greens a punt on account of conservationist/envirnmental concerns now have a choice closer to their politics. That in mind, it's remarkable that the Greens managed to increase their vote share this month. That indicates their vote is sturdy and stable. I think Labour's vote is worth considering too. Despite the dark deeds, and the right leaning profile of the voters who normally turn out for council by-elections (giving the Tories, and to a slightly lesser extent, Reform an advantage), their popular vote still outclassed the second placed Tories despite having three fewer candidates. It did not stop them from dropping four seats though, something that is sure to happen throughout April and into May.
6 March
Barnet, Finchley Church End, Con hold
Canterbury, Gorrell, Grn hold
Canterbury, Herne & Broomfield, Con hold
Canterbury, St Stephen's, Lab hold
Carmarthenshire, Llanddarog, PC hold
Eastleigh, Hamble & Netley, LDem hold
Hounslow, Brentford East, Lab hold
Hounslow, Syon & Brentford Lock, Ind gain from Lab
Pendle, Vivary Bridge, LDem gain from Con
13 March
East Devon, Exe Valley, LDem hold
West Lothian, Broxburn, Uphall & Winchburgh, SNP hold
19 March
Harborough, Glen, Con hold
Three Rivers, Abbots Langley & Bedmond, Con gain from LDem
20 March
Glasgow, North East, SNP gain from Lab
Glasgow, Southside Central, SNP gain from Lab
Mole Valley, Holmwoods & Beare Green, LDem hold
North Kesteven, Bracebridge Heath, Con hold
27 March
Maldon, Maldon North, Con hold
Redbridge, Mayfield, Ind gain from Lab
Swansea, Penllergaer, Ind hold
Image Credit
1 comment:
After the Finchley Church End by-election a lady from the local Labour party turned up at the door and asked whether I had voted and if I voted Labour. The answer to the second question was No, and she didn't ask for reasons, which presumably have already been decided by Head Office.
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