
30,000 jobs are set to disappear with the closure of NHS England and its merging with the Department of Health and Social Care. Echoing the Tories, tens of thousands of civil service jobs are on the chopping block. And this planned massacre of livelihoods were presided over by a grinning Keir Starmer and Wes Streeting and presented to the media as unalloyed goods. This is set to cut down on duplication and save lots of money (£45bn, apparently). But something else is also on the cards: the replacement of jobs by Artificial Intelligence. In his enthusiasm at the prospects of jobless service provision, Starmer gushed that "No person’s time should be spent on a task where digital or AI can do it better, quicker and to the same high quality and standard."
This is the umpteenth speech in which the Labour leadership have espoused their enthusiasm for AI. For Starmer and his project of authoritarian modernisation, the technocratic attractions are obvious. A state that is neither bigger or smaller but works better is enticing, particularly when previous attempts at digitisation have been hit by delays and costly failures. Those long in the tooth will recall efforts at harmonising the NHS's IT systems, and the huge problems rolling out Universal Credit encountered. But the prize is the speeding up of the state's mundane activities, like answering HMRC inquiries and sorting out driving licences quickly. AI is part of Starmerism's answer to the crisis of government legitimacy. If the bureaucracy can be automated and the discharge of its functions be made as rapid as placing and receiving an Amazon order, belief in the efficacy of government and, possibly, the standing of politics could improve - to Labour's benefit. If only people could forget about winter fuel cuts.
Those are the good reasons. What are the real reasons? The PCS response argues that new innovations should be introduced and embedded in cooperation with staff and be used to enhance working conditions and job security. A position likely to have gone in one ear and out the other. This is because AI's promise speaks to the dominant pole of (right wing) Labourism: its relation to "working people" not as working people, but something far more passive and politically innocuous: as consumers. The ultimate aim is impeccably Blairite: the depoliticisation of politics, and the reduction of choice between the parties that offer the best value, best quality services. This alignment with Labourist assumptions is more a coincidence of congruence. As ever, it comes down to interests.
On plenty of occasions, Starmer has staked out his intention to transform the UK into an AI superpower. This does involve infrastructure like building the first reservoir for 30 years, which handily is earmarked for land not far from the planned expansion of data centres in Cambridgeshire. But more importantly, he's leveraging the state as the anchor customer for AI services and innovation. There is nothing particularly innovative about this. In the Blair years outsourcing, Public-Private Partnerships, PFIs, etc. were used to provide guaranteed markets for everything from cleaning companies to construction firms. The aspiration was to tie the interests of those firms to the largesse of New Labour ministers, thereby expanding the party's base among capital's exalted circles. When the crash came and Gordon Brown's government became a busted flush, they were happy to carry on accepting these sorts of contracts while transferring their allegiance to the incoming Conservatives - who continued with the same practice. Streeting's love-ins with far right tech oligarch Peter Thiel, the enthusiasm for using AI in patient-facing interactions, and the endless promises of using the private sector to "help" with the NHS are part of the same piece. This is the mood music designed to entice Silicon Valley and giving them a stake in the British state, while generating a home grown ecology of expertise around innovation and application. Something that could have the happy by-product down the line of sheltering the UK from Trump's tariffs, and making Labour - on paper, the political antipode to their brand of freakish authoritarianism - their preferred political partner this side of the Atlantic.
Everyone wins, right? No. Supposing AI can fulfill the grandiose claims made for it, the British state is being used as a test bed for, to borrow a recent phrase, feeding jobs into the wood chipper. The purpose of generative AI is not to make things more efficient, but to deskill and digitise as many of the properties of immaterial labour that are feasible. I.e. The social competencies that capital accumulation increasingly depends on can, after a fashion, now be separated from workers and therefore tip the balance of forces further away from labour. To all intents and purposes, as per previous waves of automation what the government are promoting is a power grab at capital's behest. If these schemes are successful, the next targets are millions of jobs across private industry for the benefit of shareholders. And Labour ministers who fancy themselves as future consultants on implementing AI "solutions" in large organisations when they're done with politics. Just like the Thatcher years, Britain could pioneer a new class settlement. And just like the 1980s, unless the left and the labour movement gets its act together it will be our class who loses.
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14 comments:
I doubt they’ve actually thought about it that deeply.
Are you shedding any actual tears for NHS England, though...?
Neither its origins nor its recent behaviour are exactly exemplary.
It all comes out of the Tony Blair Institute, which is Britain's actual government:
https://institute.global/tags/artificial-intelligence
If you want to understand what "Starmer" is going to do next, just read the various policy papers on the TBI website.
Generally I can see the impact of new IT/IA on every aspect of an organisation except its performance and productivity.
Hundreds of thousands of workers made redundant by AI, on the one hand; on the other, lots of people on welfare or disability benefits to be encouraged to become workers. Hmm! Does that make sense?
It starts to make sense when combined with Labour's enthusiasm for assisted suicide. Especially with the plans to outsource patient assessment to private companies. Yet another guaranteed market for donors and ministers' future employers.
Some analysis from an Elite Theorist:
https://forbiddentexts.substack.com/p/tony-blair-has-finally-achieved-full
My sister has just received a knee replacement with no problem.
I posted the comments below in response to another AI article in January. Still no demand from TUs for a share of the increase in productivity & until there is a push back from the unions the Labour government (given their lack of understanding of class politics) will continue to talk of AI in terms of reducing jobs, rather than increasing leisure time.
"What I can't understand is why there is no (or very little) demand from workers and/or their representatives (in which I include, precariously, the Labour Government) for AI to be used to shorten the working week. All the media stories are about how many thousands of jobs will be replaced, why no push back arguing to reduce the working week.
In the seventies, when robots were first being introduced into car factories, I went on strike for a shorter working week. We were successful and forced the Ford Motor Company to share the benefits of automation with its employees. Why aren't the Union's leading such demands today?"
A lot of this stuff comes down to how you feel about productivity. On the one hand productivity is what drives overall economic growth (including wage growth) and societal wealth e.g. getting relatively more output with less input costs. Stagnant productivity and growth is why the UK's economic performance is so woeful (yes we can grow the economy in absolute terms with things like uneconomic immigration, but that's basically just having more of the woefulness).
NHS England largely duplicates the Department of Health, so removing it will drive up productivity, jobs being an input cost. But it is true that an unproductive job is still a job for someone, especially if low productivity work is all they can do, so is that the purpose of Gov't, to be an employer of last resort, to engage people in unproductive tasks? But that brings us full circle back round to the real problem, how does Gov't extract enough from the productive part of the economy to pay for the growing unproductive part?
Btw the AI part is largely guff, AI may assist productivity in some cases, but simply doing less unproductive stuff (like unnecessarily duplicating bureaucracy) will have a more immediate affect on actual productivity.
That would mean nothing, even if we were talking about the NHS, rather than NHS England.
do you approve of the origins or recent behaviour of those doing the scrapping? do you think it’s done with good intentions, and if not then isn’t that the point being made here?
AI needs a lot of energy. Ours is very costly, even if we had enough generation capacity to power these data centres. We would also need lots of STEM graduates to work on developing the AI, which we haven't got. Like everything Starmer blusters about it's DOA.
That's even before we get to the other issues commentators above have brought up.
@Kamo So, what does NHS England do? I suspect you have no idea. Probably that comment is from something you read in the Telegraph, or Times, or perhaps on some random blog.
You like to go on about productivity. What is it really? It's the ratio between input and output. You can measure it in £s or in widgets/hour or words/min or whatever. But increasing it means producing more output for the same input (or the same output for less input). Whether it is an unalloyed positive surely depends on what you produce. You produce a lot of words of comment here, but how many would view that as productive? You could use AI to write your comments and probably nobody would even notice (other than they might be more compassionate or even more human sounding). Imagine how much time it would free up!
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