Local Council By-Elections February 2025

This month saw 41,242 votes cast in eight local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 12 council seats changed hands. For comparison with January's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Jan	+/- Feb 25	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	23	9,896	24.0%	+2.7	-7.0	430	0
Labour	23	9,998	24.2%	+7.1	+3.0	435	-6
Lib Dem	20	7,917	19.2%	-2.6	-9.7	396	-1
Reform*	22	8,020	19.4%	+8.9	+18.5	365	+5
Green	20	2,887	7.0%	+1.3	+0.0	144	0
SNP**	2	1,474	3.6%	-6.0	+2.3	737	+1
PC***	0						0
Ind****	5	709	1.7%	-11.9	-5.6	142	+1
Other*****	8	341	0.8%	+0.4	-0.6	43	0

* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There were two by-elections in Scotland
*** There were two by-elections in Wales
**** There two Independent clashes
***** Others this month consisted of Alba (63), Christian People's Alliance (14), Heritage (21, 12), Putting Cumbria First (76), Rejoin (68), SDP (69), Sovereignty (18)

Reform take the by-election crown this month, hoovering up councillors (three courtesy of Labour, two from the Conservatives) and finally achieving a vote share that's closer to their polling figures. You might ask why it took them so long, seeing as the news media continues to be framed by the preoccupation of the right wing press and differential turn outs by age give them and the Tories an advantage over the other parties. Whatever the answer is, the catch up is sudden. This time last year Reform could hardly be bothered fielding by-election candidates and scores below 1% were routine. They have quickly become a force not to be dismissed lightly.

Labour was everyone's punching bag in February. They had better get used to it. We'll see if what's been happening with Donald Trump shifts the dial on national polling. The Tories managed to hold steady, winning and losing in equal measure. February was another strong month for the Liberal Democrats. If this persists, it would be reasonable to assume they have permanently annexed a section of liberalish soft Tory opinion. The upward momentum of the Greens, however, has been halted by Reform's advance and its new role as a repository of protest votes. They gained one and lost one council seat, but annoyingly came within four votes of taking a seat off the Tories in East Suffolk.

Over the course of this year, I'll be running a side project keeping an eye on the Independents and Others. Now Reform are a proper contender and by-elections typically have a range of choice, will Reform become a) a new vehicle for self-styled local heroes to get on their councils who might otherwise have stood as Independents, and therefore depress the number of candidacies from this quarter? And b), is it going to have a similar effect on the candidacies from Others? We'll see.

As for next month, unfortunately it's likely Reform will carry on doing well. I expect the Lib Dems to turn in a creditable performance, and Labour and the Tories get vote shares commensurate with their polling. And for the Greens ... maybe they will surprise us.

6 February
Hyndburn, Baxenden, Con gain from Lab
Medway, Rochester East & Warren Wood, Ref gain from Lab x2
Medway, Gillingham South, Lab hold
Tendring, The Bentleys & Frating, Ref gain from Con
Wokingham, Winnersh, LDem hold

11 February
Pembrokeshire, Haverfordwest Prendergast, Ind gain from Con

13 February
Barnet, Burnt Oak, Lab hold
East Dunbartonshire, Kirkintilloch North & East & Twechar, Lab gain from LDem
New Forest, Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East, Con gain from Grn
Stevenage, Manor, LDem hold
Torfaen, Trevethin & Penygarn, Ref gain from Lab
Warwick, All Saints & Woodloes, Grn gain from Lab

18 February
Brent, Alperton, LDem hold

20 February
Barking & Dagenham, Whalebone, Lab hold
Colchester, Tiptree, Con hold
East Ayrshire, Kilmarnock North, SNP gain from Lab
Hammersmith & Fulham, Hammersmith Broadway, Lab hold
Hammersmith & Fulham, Lillie, Lab hold

27 February
Breckland, Bedingfeld, Ref gain from Con
East Suffolk, Rushmere St Andrews, Con hold
East Suffolk, Woodbridge, LDem hold
Westminster, Vincent Square, Con gain from Lab
Westmorland & Furness, Eamont & Shap, LDem hold

Image Credit

Five Most Popular Posts in February

There might be a crisis in the transatlantic alliance, but nothing, I mean nothing will stop the customary monthly round up of what's hot on this here blog.

1. The Politics of Noticing
2. The Radicalisation of Young Women
3. Blue Labour and the Working Class
4. The Sacking of Andrew Gwynne
5. Revisiting Brexit and Corbynism

Coming out top was a piece on how sections of the left/liberal press and academia are beginning to notice that Keir Starmer isn't necessarily on their side. A crisis in the making for the Prime Minister. This was followed by a crisis of another sort. While commentators were falling over themselves and wringing their hands about the advance of the AfD in Germany, little noticed was the much deeper left wing radicalisation of young women. What's going on? In third was my exasperated piece on Blue Labour, the theory middle class right wingers in the Labour Party keep trying to resurrect to cover for their own prejudices. Not far behind was a look at the arrogant stupidity of Andrew Gwynne and how this brief episode lifts the lid on the mundane culture of Labour parliamentarians. And last was a trip down memory lane on news that there were talks between Dominic Cummings and Jeremy Corbyn's office back in the day. Ah, what simpler times they were.

A couple of other pieces for your consideration. The first is last night's scrawlings reflecting on the profound shock establishment political opinion received after Trump's public bullying of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Friday. A far cry from the clubby atmos of Keir Starmer's visit the day before. This one's going to reverberate. The second is February's sole foray into science fiction with a look at Norman Spinrad's The Void Captain's Tale.

What's coming up in March? I've got four or five posts queued in my brain so if nothing appears, it's not for want of material. The resignation of Anneliese Dodds, Trump's affinity to Russia, and a couple of SF commentaries immediately spring to mind. I'm sure the comings and goings of politics will provide unforeseen occasions for content creation too. As ever, if you haven't already don't forget to follow the (very) occasional newsletter, and if you like what I do (and you're not skint), you can help support the blog. Following me on Bluesky, Facebook, and for what it's worth Twitter, are cost-free ways of showing your backing for this corner of the internet.

Image Credit