Local Council By-Elections March 2024

This month saw 17,319 votes cast in 13 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Five council seats changed hands. For comparison with January's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Feb	+/- Mar 23	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	9	2,950	17.0%	-14.0	-6.5	328	-3
Labour	12	3,850	22.2%	+1.0	-2.4	321	+1
Lib Dem	8	3,650	21.1%	-7.8	-0.3	456	+2
Green	7	2,180	12.6%	+5.6	+3.4	311	+1
SNP*	1	1,015	5.9%	+4.6	-0.2	1,015	0
PC**	2	205	1.2%	-0.7	-1.0	103	-1
Ind***	12	3,307	19.1%	+11.8	+7.9	276	0
Other****	3	162	0.9%	-0.5	-0.6	54	0

* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There were four by-elections in Wales
*** There were four Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Gwlad (2), Independent Green Voice (133), UKIP (27)

If one was tempted to read too much into local authority by-elections, it would be reasonable to conclude the Tories are in a bit of trouble. Because of the varying conditions in different localities a lot of unique factors come into play, so the piles of votes at the end of each monthly round don't mean much. That's why I'm sure no Conservative supporter will be disheartened to learn they couldn't find enough candidates to stand in four of the 13 by-elections, or that their vote tally came fourth for the first time ever.

Set in context, if this set of results suggest anything it's that the Tories' decrepitude is playing itself out at local level, there's little enthusiasm for Labour, the Liberal Democrats are the opposition of choice - but people will punt for Greens and Independents when they're locally rooted and have a campaigning profile behind them. Political science isn't rocket science.

As with March, April usually slows down before the by-election extravaganza of May. And 2024 is no exception with just 10 to look forward to.

6th March
Carmarthenshire, Elli, Ind hold

7th March
Bridgend, Aberkenfig, Lab gain from PC
Glasgow, Hillhead, Grn gain from Lab
Mid Devon, Upper Yeo Valley & Tawe, LDem gain from Con

14th March
Lancaster, Castle, Grn hold
Wiltshire, Cricklade & Latton, LDem hold

21st March
Cambridgeshire, Yaxley & Farcet, LDem gain from Con
Flintshire, Brynford & Halkyn, Lab gain from Con
Knowsley, Whitefield, Ind hold
North Kesteven, Heckington Rural, Con hold

28th March
Neath Port Talbot, Neath East, Lab hold
Orkney, Stromness & South Isles, Ind hold
Somerset, Somerton , LDem hold

Image Credit