Saturday 30 March 2024

Quarter One By-Election Results 2024

This quarter 76,034 votes were cast in 48 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 19 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter four 2023's results here.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q4
+/- Q1 2023
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         38
20,674
   27.2%
 +3.0
    +1.0
   544
    -3
Labour
         43
18,359
   24.1%
  -0.8
     -4.8
   427
    -1
Lib Dem
         38
20,313
   26.7%
 +2.3
    +8.4
   535
   +5
Green
         30
 6,402
    8.4%
  -3.4
     -0.3
   213
   +2
SNP*
          3
 2,425
    3.2%
 +1.8
     -1.7
   808
    -1
PC**
          4
   828
    1.1%
 +0.9
     -0.4
   207
    -1
Ind***
         34
 6,047
    8.0%
 +0.0
     -1.3
   178
    -1
Other****
         14
   986
    1.3%
  -4.0
     -0.9
    70
     0


* There were four by-elections in Scotland
** There were nine by-elections in Wales
*** There were seven Independent clashes
**** Others consisted of Democratic Liberation (49), Eco Federation (25), Gwlad (2), Independent Green Voice (133), Liberal (118), Putting Crewe First (128), Reform (54, 50, 237), Scottish Family Party (50), TUSC (53), UKIP (38, 27), Women's Equality Party (22)

Looking at the quarterly summary and ... it doesn't seem that bad for the Conservatives. They come away with the popular vote and only dropped three councillors. Labour came in behind the Liberal Democrats and come out the poorer. And the aforementioned Lib Dems are toasting five new councillors while the Greens can add a couple more to their tally. And, once again, there's no sign of voters' interests in Reform. Which is unlike UKIP of a decade ago, which did have a local authority following and was capable of winning the occasional by-election.

There is something that should cause the Conservatives some pause. Their vote may have held up, but for the first time ever Labour have fielded more candidates in all three months of a quarter. Set against the backdrop of the problems besetting the party, is their long term decline starting to finally hinder their ability to run in elections?

1 comment:

Ken said...

It will be interesting to see if they have any boots on the ground in May. In 2019 I saw the Tory candidate leafleting on his own. I had to be reminded that the election was in May this year, as unusually, there hasn’t been a peep from anybody so far. Even the Liberals, who usually disguise an election leaflet as a “Here’s what our councillors do” not too far from the local elections.