Saturday 2 March 2024

Local Council By-Elections February 2024

This month saw 32,120 votes cast in 24 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 11 council seats changed hands. For comparison with January's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- Jan
+/- Feb 23
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
          19
 9,950
    31.0%
  +1.8
      -0.9
   524
     0
Labour
          20
 6,812
    21.2%
   -7.7
      -7.1
  341
     0
Lib Dem
          19
 9,270
    28.9%
  +1.1
     +9.3
   488
   +2
Green
          15
 2,250
     7.0%
   -0.4
      -1.8
   150
   +1
SNP*
           1
  410
     1.3%
   -2.5
      -4.1
   410
    -1
PC**
           2
  623
     1.9%
  +1.9
     +0.5
   312
     0
Ind***
          15
 2,343
     7.3%
  +5.8
     +3.0
   156
    -2
Other****
           5
  462
     1.4%
  +0.0
      -0.5
    92
     0


* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were four by-elections in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Eco Federation (25), Putting Crewe First (128), Reform (50, 237), Women's Equality Party (22)

The plus/minus councillor tallies mask for a scrappy month. Both Labour and Conservatives gained some and lost an equal amount, there was a rare Tory gain from the Liberal Democrats, and the Independents got a thumping. If there are stories to be told, despite the crises afflicting the government it seems its local government base has weathered the worst and is turning in a strong performance. The Lib Dems are not so afflicted, and are also doing well. Labour? At least where by-elections are concerned, the performance is poor. While I am the first to talk about Keir Starmer's shallow support, it's unlikely this is evidence of anything other than just the way the by-elections are landing. Also bear in mind electorates are more likely to turn out in Lib Dem and Tory-held seats than Labour seats for reasons well known and well-studied by political scientists. What may also be of note is the very low score the SNP achieved in a seat defence.

Next month there are only 13 by-elections to look forward to (not counting the mayoral contest in Lewisham). Two of them in Scotland and another three in Wales.

1 February
City of London, Candlewick, Ind hold (unopposed)
City of London, Cheap, Ind hold (unopposed)

8 February
Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale South, Ind hold
Cheshire East, Crewe Central, Con gain from Lab
Gwynedd, Criccieth, PC gain from Ind
West Northamptonshire, East Hunsbury & Shelfleys, LDem gain from Con

15 February
Dacorum, Tring West & Rural, LDem hold
East Hampshire, Four Marks & Medstead, LDem hold
Kingston-upon-Hull, Avenue, LDem gain from Lab
Neath Port Talbot, Briton Ferry East, Lab gain from Ind
Neath Port Talbot, Rhos, Ind gain from PC

22 February
Buckinghamshire, Farnham Common & Burnham Beeches, Con hold
Buckinghamshire, Hazlemere, Con hold
Derbyshire Dales, Bakewell, Lab gain from Con
Derbyshire Dales, Norbury, Con hold
Folkestone & Hythe, Romney Marsh, Con hold
Milton Keynes, Loughton & Shenley, Lab hold
Scottish Borders, Jedburgh & District, Con gain from SNP
Wiltshire, Calne Chilvester & Abberd, LDem gain from Con

29 February
East Riding of Yorkshire, Minster & Woodmansey, LDem hold
East Riding of Yorkshire, Tranby, LDem hold
Horsham, Henfield, Grn gain from Ind
Horsham, Southwater North, Con gain from LDem
Great Yarmouth, Central & Northgate, Lab hold

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