Friday 29 September 2023

Quarter Three By-Election Results 2023

This quarter 101,771 votes were cast in 53 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 24 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter two's results here.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q2
+/- Q3 2022
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         51
28,005
   27.5%
   -3.4
    -2.8
   549
    -7
Labour
         46
31,003
   30.5%
   -1.6
    -1.7
   674
    -2
LibDem
         47
19,751
   19.4%
   -1.3
    +1.9
   420
   +7
Green
         33
 9,921
    9.7%
  +0.7
    +2.6
   301
   +1
SNP*
          3
 2,020
    2.0%
  +1.5
    +1.3
   673
    -2
PC**
          2
   636
    0.6%
  +0.6
     -0.4
   318
     0
Ind***
         35
 7,209
    7.1%
  +2.1
     -1.6
   206
   +4
Other****
         28
 3,226
    3.2%
  +0.6
    +0.7
   114
    -1

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were two by-elections in Wales
*** There were five Independent clashes
**** Others consisted of Alba (70), Gwlad (8), Heritage Party (55), Reform (278, 23, 58, 61, 174, 35, 133, 66), Scottish Family Party (42), Scottish Libertarian (23), SDP (24), TUSC (52, 12, 5, 28, 26, 19, 74), Upminster and Cranham Residents' Association (1,642), Vectis (178), Women's Equality Party (34), Yorkshire Party (28, 42, 19, 27)

The curtain falls on another quarter and how are things looking? Not fantastic for the Tories. As has been noted plenty of times here before, the closeness of its popular vote to Labour's belies a real problem. Council by-elections come with an inbuilt Conservative advantage because older and retired people - among whom they have disproportionate support - are even likelier to vote than younger cohorts. Therefore, if the Tories support is weakening here they are in big, big trouble.

Still, the Liberal Democrats are the real victors here, managing a net gain of seven and even out-organising Labour in seats stood. It's that kind of complacency that will cost Labour in the long run. Also, a solid performance from the Greens continues. Can they keep it going?

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