Sunday 16 May 2021

Local Council By-Elections May 2021

This month saw 781,808 votes over 342 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 99 council seat changed hands. For comparison with April's results, see here.

Number of Candidates
Total Vote
+/- March 20

*There was one by-election in Scotland
**There were 10 by-elections in Wales
***23 contests has Independent clashes
****Others this month consisted of the Andover Alliance (249), BNP (55), Christian People's Alliance (158, 80, 115), Communist Party of Britain (36, 33), Coventry Citizen's Party (194), For Britain (99, 49, 34, 12, 11, 14, 69), For the People Not the Party (88), Freedom Association (49), Heritage Party (49, 52, 45), Hart Community Campaign (1,417), Holland on Sea and Eastcliff Matters (118), Indeed (61), Kingston Independent Residents Group (378, 378), Lewisham People Before Profit (303, 219, 188), Liberal (383), Official Monster Raving Loony (110, 8, 16, 12, 13, 6, 14, 8, 2, 6, 2, 3, 7, 1, 1), Reform (40, 53, 112, 40, 35, 88, 105, 70, 89, 89, 42, 387), Residents for Guildford and Villages (660, 109) Residents for Uttleford (892, 361), SDP (16, 17, 30), Rochford District Residents (788), Skegness Urban District Society (121), Tendring First (140), Taking the Initiative Party (219, 251, 100, 36), TUSC (47, 72, 32, 33, 56, 551, 58, 77, 149, 38, 30, 40, 9, 117, 34, 55, 58, 27, 345, 82, 87, 154, 111, 91, 7, 58), UKIP (48, 105, 124, 19, 142, 35, 55, 384, 63, 120), Wales Needs Champions (34), We Matter Party (37), Welsh Independence Party (121) Women's Equality Party (149), Workers Party of Britain (58, 13, 21, 45), Yorkshire Party (397, 136), Young People's Alliance (52)

That's pretty much all the by-elections we've been saving up this last year thanks to Covid and ... what a disaster for Labour. What a triumph for the Conservatives. Interestingly the Tories managed to do better in popular vote terms here than the rest of the local elections that were taking place (as did Labour), but the deficit is the same - seven points. Labour did go into the locals as it went into these by-elections with some significant disadvantages - a voter base less likely to turn out for second order contests, and a national platform that wrongly suggested local councillors can save the NHS from cuts. But none of this disguises the fact the party got a pummelling. Mind you, the Liberal Democrats and Independents didn't come off lightly either. They two had bites taken out of them by the Tories.

How to explain this? In many parts of the country, it seems a portion of older voters have moved into protest voting against Labour. Years of entitlement and breaking trust with a significant layer of former Labour supporters thanks to the second referendum position has rendered the party radioactive to them, but this only goes some of the way. How have the Tories managed to advance against the LibDems and the flotsam and jetsam of Indydom? A similar no-trust dynamic is at play with the LibDems, and so they're unlikely to be the protest party du jour from now on. Likewise, localist candidates won't fit the bill either. Instead, in addition to awarding the Tories for the vaccine bounce, they have bizarrely become the go to protest party against the establishment. Even though they are the establishment. Consider how the Tories' popular base is mainly old, more dependent on legacy media for information about politics, and are ill-disposed toward parties who publicly attempted to throw over their referendum votes to remain in the European Union, you get a sense of the antipathy the Tories are feeding off. Naturally, getting to grips with this dynamic requires more work but for now perhaps the most simplistic way of putting it is that the Tories have annexed the UKIP vote wholesale, and have kept them on board for the same reasons these voters supported UKIP in the first place.

There is a lot in these results, but as one cannot resist the minutiae of things the 'Others' are interesting. Not just because the Official Monster Raving Loony Party stood 13 candidates in a single seat, but also because of UKIP's reduced circumstances (just 10 candidates!) but how TUSC have returned to the post-Corbyn electoral fray with the greatest spread of candidates after the Greens. The votes are what you might expect, but they're sure to remain a by-election fixture for the foreseeable. Also the Brexit Party are back in their new Reform Party guise, and they pulled in a couple of reasonable results. Also worth keeping an eye on should the wheels start falling off the Tory Party.

And that's it by-elections wise until 10th June. The best ever by-election preformance for the Tories and the worst for the other Westminster parties bar the Greens. If there is to be a recovery among the anti-Tory parties, local council by-elections will be the first to pick it up, so stay tuned.

6th May
Adur DC, Churchill, Con hold
Adur DC, Eastbrook, Lab hold
Adur DC, Southlands, Con gain from Lab
Allerdale DC, Aspatria, Ind gain from Oth
Allerdale DC, Christchurch, Con gain from Lab
Allerdale DC, St John's, Lab gain from Ind
Amber Valley DC, Somercotes, Lab hold
Arun DC, Brookfield, Con gain from LDem
Arun DC, Pevesney, Con gain from LDem
Ashfield DC, Annesley and Kirkby Woodhouse, Ind hold
Ashfield DC, Skegby, Ind hold
Ashford DC, Beaver, Con gain from Lab
Babergh DC, Great Conard, Con hold
Barking and Dagenham LBC, Thames, Lab hold
Barnet LBC, East Barnet, Con gain from Lab
Barnet LBC, Edgware, Con hold
Barrow-in-Furness BC, Hindpool, Lab hold
Barrow-in-Furness BC, Roosecote, Con hold
Basildon DC, Langdon Hills, Con gain from Ind
Bassetlaw BC, Ranskill, Con gain from Lab
Bassetlaw BC, Sutton, Con gain from Ind
Bassetlaw BC, Tuxford and Trent, Con hold
Bexley LBC, Longlands, Con hold
Birmingham MBC, Billesley, Lab hold
Birmingham MBC, Hall Green North, Lab hold
Birmingham MBC, Oscott, Con gain from Lab
Birmingham MBC, Quinton, Con gain from Lab
Blaby DC, Stanton and Flamville, Con hold
Blackpool UA, Highfield, Con hold
Blackpool UA, Norbreck, Con gain from Ind
Bolton MBC, Aspley Bridge, Con hold
Bolsover BC, Bolsover North and Shuttlewood, Lab hold
Bolsover BC, Pinxton, Lab gain from Ind
Boston DC, Skirbeck, Con hold
Bournemouth/Poole UA, Canford Heath, Con gain from LDem
Bournemouth/Poole UA, Commons, Ind hold
Bradford MBC, Bingley Rural, Con hold
Bradford MBC, Keighley Central, Con gain from Lab
Bradford MBC, Wharfedale, Con hold
Braintree DC, Hatfield Peverel and Terling, Con hold
Braintree DC, Witham South, Con Hold
Brent LBC, Brondesbury Park, Lab hold
Bridgend CBC, Nant-y-moel, Ind hold
Brighton and Hove UA, Hollingdean and Stanmer, Grn gain from Lab
Brighton and Hove UA, Patchwood, Con hold
Bromley LBC, Crystal Palace, Lab hold
Broxtowe BC, Beeston Rylands, Lab hold
Broxtowe BC, Stapleford South West, Lab hold
Bury MBC, Moorside, Lab hold
Bury MBC, North Manor, Con hold
Calderdale MBC, Brighouse, Con hold
Calderdale MBC, Greetland and Staniland, Con gain from LDem
Canterbury DC, Swalecliffe, Con hold
Canterbury DC, Westgate, Lab hold
Carlisle DC, Cathedral and Castle, Lab hold
Carlisle DC, Harraby South and Parklands, Con gain from Lab
Carlisle DC, Newtown and Moreton North, Con gain from Lab
Castlepoint DC, Boyce, Con hold
Castlepoint DC, St George's, Con hold
Chelsmford DC, Moulsham Lodge, Con gain from LDem
Cheshire East UA, Crewe West, Lab hold
Cheshire West and Chester UA, Frodsham, Con hold
Cheshire West and Chester UA, Neston, Lab hold
Colchester DC, Lexden and Braiswick, Con hold
Colchester DC, Prettygate, Con hold
Copeland DC, Whitehaven Central, Lab hold
Cotswald DC, Fosseridge, Con hold
Coventry MBC, Wyken, Lab hold
Craven DC, Barden Fell, Ind hold
Craven DC. Penyghent, Con hold
Crawley DC, Ifield, Lab hold
Crawley DC, Tilgate, Con hold
Croydon LBC, Kenley, Con hold
Croydon LBC, New Addington North, Lab hold
Croydon LBC, Park Hill and Whitgift, Con hold
Croydon LBC, South Norwood, Lab hold
Croydon LBC, Woodside, Lab hold
Cumbria CC, Brampton, Con hold
Cumbria CC, Cockermouth North, Con gain from LDem
Cumbria CC, St John's and Great Clifton, Con gain from Ind
Cumbria CC, Ulverston West, Grn gain from Con
Dacorum DC, Leverstock Green, Con hold
Dacorum DC, LDem hold
Darlington UA, Hummersknott, Con hold
Darlington UA, Red Hall and Lingfield, Con gain from Lab
Dartford DC, Darenth, Con hold
Dartford DC, Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone and Hawley, Con hold
Derby UA, Darley, Con gain from Lab
Derbyshire Dales DC, Masson, Con gain from Lab
Derbyshire Dales DC, Wirksworth, Lab hold
Dudley MBC, Belle Vale, Con hold
Dudley MBC, Kingswinford North and Wall Heath, Con hold
Ealing LBC, Broadway, Con hold
Ealing LBC, Habbayne, Lab hold
Ealing LBC, Hanger Hill, Con hold
East Devon DC, Whimple and Rockbeare, Con gain from Ind
East Hampshire DC, Bramshott and Liphook, Con hold
East Hampshire DC, Grayshott, Con hold
East Hertfordshire DC, Bishops Stortford All Saints, LDem hold
East Lindsey DC, Chapel St Leonards, Con hold
East Riding UA, South East Holderness, Con hold
East Riding UA, South West Holderness, Con hold
East Staffs DC, Eton Park, Lab hold and Lab gain from Ind
Eastbourne BC, Hampden Park, LDem hold
Eastbourne BC, Sovereign, Con hold
Eden DC, Hartside, Con hold
Eden DC, Skelton, Con hold
Enfield LBC, Chase, Con gain from Lab
Enfield LBC, Jubilee, Lab hold
Enfield LBC, Southbury, Lab hold
Epping Forest DC, Grange Hill, Con hold
Erewash BC, Hallam Fields, Con gain from Lab
Erewash BC, Nottingham Road, Con gain from Lab
Exeter DC, Mincinglake and Whipton, Lab hold
Fenland DC, Lattersey, Con hold
Flintshire CC, Gwernymynydd, Ind hold
Forest of Dean DC, Berry Hill, Ind hold
Forest of Dean DC, Cinderford East, Lab hold
Gateshead MBC, Birtley, Lab hold
Gateshead MBC, Lamesley, Lab hold
Gravesham DC, Westcourt, Con gain from Lab
Great Yarmouth BC, Claydon, Con gain from Lab
Great Yarmouth BC, Ormesby, Con gain from Ind
Greenwich LBC, Glyndon, Lab hold
Greenwich LBC, Greenwich West, Lab hold
Greenwich LBC, Kidbrook with Horsfair, Lab hold
Greenwich LBC, Shooters Hill, Lab hold
Guildford BC, Friary and St Nicholas, LDem hold
Guildford BC, Pirbright, Con hold
Guildford BC, Send, Oth hold
Hackney LBC, Hoxton East and Shoreditch, Lab hold
Hackney LBC, Kings Park, Lab hold
Hackney LBC, Stamford Hill West, Con hold
Hackney LBC, Woodbury Down, Lab hold
Harborough DC, Market Harborough Little Bowden, Con hold
Harlow DC, Church Langley, Con hold
Harlow DC, Toddbrook, Con gain from Lab
Hart DC, Crookham West and Ewshot, Oth hold
Herefordshire UA, Newton Farm, Con gain from Ind
Hertsmere DC, Borehamwood Kennilworth, Lab gain from Con
Hertsmere DC, Bushey North, LDem hold
Hillingdon BC, Charville, Con hold
Horsham BC, Trafalgar, LDem hold
Hounslow LBC, Cranford, Lab hold
Hounslow LBC, Hounslow Heath, Lab hold
Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdonshire North, Lab hold
Huntingdonshire DC, St Ives East, Con hold
Huntingdonshire DC, St Ives South, Con Hold
Huntingdonshire DC, Warboys, Con hold
Hyndburn DC, St Andrews, Con hold
Ipswich DC, Castle Hill, Con hold
Ipswich DC, Holywells, Con gain from Lab
Isle of Anglesey CC, Caergybi, Ind hold
Isle of Anglesey CC, Seiriol, PC hold
Islington LBC, Bunhill, Lab hold
Islington LBC, Highbury West, Lab hold
Islington LBC, Holloway, Lab hold
Islington LBC, Mildway, Lab hold
Islington LBC, St Peter's, Lab hold
Kingston upon Thames LBC, Chessington South, LDem hold
Kirklees MBC, Birstall and Birkenshaw, Con hold
Kirklees MBC, Golcar, LDem hold
Knowsley MBC, Halewood South, Ind hold
Knowsley MBC, St Gabriel, Grn gain from Lab
Lancaster City DC, Bulk, Grn hold
Lancaster City DC, Kellet, Con gain from LDem
Leeds MBC, Roundhay, Lab hold
Leicester UA, North Evington, Lab hold
Lewisham MBC, Bellingham, Lab hold
Lewisham MBC, Catford South, Lab hold
Lewisham MBC, New Cross, Lab hold
Lewisham MBC, Sydenham, Lab hold
Lichfield DC, Summerfield and All Saints, Con gain from Lab
Liverpool MBC, Croxteth, Lab hold
Luton UA, High Town, Lab hold
Luton UA, Round Green, LDem gain from Lab
Maldon DC, Heybridge East, Con hold
Maldon DC, Tollesnury, Ind gain from Con
Manchester MBC, Brooklands, Lab hold
Manchester MBC, Clayton and Openshaw, Lab gain from Ind
Mendip DC, Wells St Thomas, Con gain from LDem
Merton LBC, St Helier, Lab hold
Mid Devon DC, Castle Ward, Con gain from LDem
Mid Devon DC, Taw, Con hold
Mid Devon DC, Westexe, Con gain from Ind
Mid Sussex DC, Copthorne and Worth, Con gain from Ind
Miton Keynes BC, Central Milton Keynes, Lab hold
Miton Keynes BC, Woughton and Fishermead, Lab hold
Neath Port Talbot CBC, Aberavon, Lab hold
Newark and Sherwood, Boughton, Con hold
Newcastle upon Tyne MBC, Byker, Lab hold
Newcastle upon Tyne MBC, Chapel, Ind hold
Newham LBC, East Ham Central, Lab hold
Newport CC, Victoria, Lab hold
North East Derbyshire DC, Eckington South and Renishaw, Con gain from Lab
North East Derbyshire DC, Killamarsh East, Con hold
North East Derbyshire DC, Killamarsh West, Con hold
North East Lincolnshire DC, East Marsh, LDem hold
North East Lincolnshire DC, Scartho, Con hold
North Kesteven DC, Bassingham and Brant Brougton, Con gain from Ind
North Lincolnshire UA, Ashby, Con gain from Lab
North Lincolnshire UA, Bottesford, Con hold
North Lincolnshire UA, Broughton and Appleby, Con hold x2
North Norfolk DC, Coastal, Con gain from LDem
North Norfolk DC, Holt, Con hold
North Somerset US, Portishead East, Ind hold
North Tyneside MBC, Chirton, Lab hold
North Tyneside MBC, Preston, Lab hold
North Tyneside MBC, St Mary's, Con hold
North Warwickshire DC, Atherstone Central, Con gain from Lab
North Warwickshire DC, Curdworth, Con hold
North Warwickshire DC, Polesworth East, Con gain from Lab
North West Leicestershire DC, Ibstock East, Con gain from Lab
North West Leicestershire DC, Worthington and Breedon, Con hold
North Yorkshire CC, Bilton and Nidd, Con gain from LDem
North Yorkshire CC, Ribblesdale, Con hold
Peterborough UA, Fletton and Woodston, Lab gain from Con
Reading BC, Peppard, Con hold
Redbridge LBC, Loxford, Lab hold
Redbridge LBC, Seven Kings, Lab hold
Redcar and Cleveland UA, Guisborough, Con hold
Redcar and Cleveland UA, Hutton, Con hold
Redcar and Cleveland UA, Longbeck, Con hold
Reigate and Banstead BC, Earlswood and Whitebushes, Grn hold
Reigate and Banstead BC, Hooley, Merstham and Netherne, Con hold
Reigate And Banstead BC, Horley East and Salfords, Con hold
Rhondda Cynon Taf CBC, Llantwwit Fardre, Con hold
Rhondda Cynon Taf CBC, Penrhiwceiber, Lab gain from Oth
Ribble Valley BC, Billington and Langho, Con hold
Ribble Valley BC, Mellor, Con hold
Ribble Valley BC, West Bradford and Grindleton, Con hold
Richmond upon Thames LBC, Hampton Wick, LDem gain from Grn
Rochford DC, Hockley and Ashingdon, Con hold
Rochford DC, Hullbridge, Oth gain from Grn
Rossendale BC, Stackstead, Lab gain from Ind
Rother DC, Easter Rother, Con hold
Rugby BC, Admiral and Cawston, Con hold
Rushcliffe DC, Sutton Bonington, Con hold
Rushmoor DC, North Town, Lab hold
Sandwell MBC, Old Warley, Lab hold
Sandwell MBC Rowley, Con gain from Lab
Sandwell MBC, Wednesbury South, Con gain from Lab
Sefton MBC, Blundellsands, Lab hold
Sefton MBC, Derby, Lab hold
Selby DC, Camblesforth and Carlton, Con gain from Oth
Sevenoaks DC, Brasted, Chevening and Sundridge, Con hold
Sheffield MBC, Richmond, Lab hold
Solihull MBC, Elmdon, LDem hold
Somerset West and Taunton DC, Trull, Pitminster and Corfe, LDem hold
South Cambridgeshire DC, Girton, LDem gain from Ind
South Cambridgeshire DC, Harston and Camberton, LDem hold
South Cambridgeshire DC, Melbourn, LDem hold
South Cambridgeshire DC, Milton and Waterbeach, LDem hold
South Derbyshire DC, Church Gresley, Con hold
South Derbyshire DC, Hilton, Con hold x2
South Derbyshire DC, Seales, Con hold
South Gloucestershire UA, Frenchhay and Downend, Con hold
South Hams DC, Ivybridge West, Con hold
South Kesteven, Glen, Con hold
South Lakeland DC, Broughton and Coniston, LDem gain from Con
South Oxfordshire DC, Didcot North East, Con gain from Ind
South Oxfordshire DC, Forest Hill and Holton, LDem hold
South Ribble DC, Longton and Hutton West, Con hold
South Ribble DC, St Ambrose, Lab hold
South Tyneside MBC, Horsley Hill, Lab hold
South Tyneside MBC, Monkton, Lab hold
Southend-on-Sea BC, St Lukes, Lab gain from Ind
Southend-on-Sea BC, Westborough, Lab hold
Spelthorne BC, Staines South, Con gain from LDem
St Albans DC, Harpenden East, LDem gain from Con
St Albans DC, Harpenden South, Con hold
St Helens MBC, Earlestown, Lab hold
Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Cheadle NE, Con gain from Ind
Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Cheadle SE, Con gain from Ind
Stevenage BC, Roebuck, Con gain from Lab
Stirling CA, Forth and Endrick, Con gain from SNP
Stockton-on-Tees UA, Billingham West, Con gain from Ind
Stockton-on-Tees UA, Bishops Garth and Elm Tree, Con gain from LDem
Stockton-on-Tees UA, Hartburn, Con hold
Stockton-on-Tees UA, Western Parishes, Con hold
Stockton-on-Tees UA, Yarm, Con hold
Stoke-on-Trent UA, Moorcroft, Con gain from Lab
Sunderland MBC, Copt Hill, Lab hold
Sunderland MBC, Shiney Row, Lab hold
Sunderland MBC, Washington South, Lab gain from Grn
Surrey Heath, Bagshot, Con gain from LDem
Swale DC, Sheerness, Con gain from Lab
Swansea UA, Castle, Lab hold
Swansea UA, Llansamlet, Lab hold
Swindon BC, Chiseldon and Lawn, Con hold
Swindon BC, Wroughton and Witchelstowe, Con gain from LDem
Tandridge DC, Queens Park, Con gain from LDem
Tandridge DC, Valley, LDem hold
Telford and Wrekin UA, Dawley and Aqueduct, Lab hold
Telford and Wrekin UA, Donnington, Con gain from Lab
Tendring DC, Eastcliff, Ind gain from Oth
Tendring DC, West Clacton and Jaywick Sands, Con gain from Oth
Test Valley BC, Andover Milway, Con gain from Oth
Test Valley BC, Andover St Mary's, Con gain from Oth
Test Valley BC, Chilworth, Nursling and Rownham, Con hold x2
Tewkesbury BC, Cleeve Hill, Con hold
Thanet BC, Central Harbour, Grn gain from Lab
Thanet BC, Dane Valley, Con gain from Ind
Thanet BC, Newington, Con gain from Lab
Torbay UA, Clifton with Maidemway, LDem hold
Trafford MBC, Bowden, Con hold
Trafford MBC, Flixton, Lab hold
Trafford MBC, Longford, Lab hold
Trafford MBC, Priory, Lab hold
Tunbridge Wells BC, St James', LDem hold
Tunbridge Wells BC, Speldhurst and Biddborough, Con hold
Uttlesford DC, Newport, Oth Hold
Uttlesford DC, The Sampford, Con gain from Oth
Vale of White Horse DC, Grove North, Con gain from LDem
Wakefield MBC, Airedale and Ferry Fryston, Lab gain from Ind
Walsall MBC, Pelsall, Con hold x 2
Waltham Forest LBC, Hatch Lane, Con hold
Wandsworth LBC, Bedford, Lab hold
Warwick BC, Leamington Clarendon, Lab hold
Watford BC, Nascot, LDem hold
Wealdon DC, Hailsham North, LDem gain from Con
Welwyn and Hatfield BC, Welham Green and Hatfield South, Con gain from LDem
West Lancashire DC, Hesketh-with-Becconsall, Con hold
West Lindsey DC, Kelsey Wold, Con hold
West Suffolk DC, Abbeygate, Grn hold
West Suffolk DC, Clare Hundon and Kedington, Con gain from Ind
West Suffolk DC, Lakenheath, Con gain from Ind
West Suffolk DC, Moreton Hall, Con gain from Ind
West Suffok DC, Southgate, Con hold
West Suffolk DC, Whepstead and Wickhambrook, Con hold
Westminster LBC, Churchill, Lab hold
Wigan MBC, Orrell, Con hold
Winchester DC, St Michael, LDem hold
Wirral MBC, New Brighton, Lab hold
Wolverhampton MBC, Heath Town, Lab hold
Wolverhampton MBC, Tettenhall Wightwick, Con hold
Wychavon DC, Emley Castle and Somerville, Con hold

Image Credit


David said...

Sure look grim Phil, but how about that +17.9 versus March 20? What does that signify?

Phil said...

March 20 was the last time normal by-elections were contested, but even then they were cut short by the pandemic so Labour's vote was especially low in proportional terms while the LibDems were proportionally high. What the increase since then means is for the last couple of months the vote has stabilised to around a third, which is pretty much what Labour can always rely on.

Dr Zoltan Jorovic said...

There is a clear urban/rural divide, even excluding the cities. Tories dominate the countryside, but in towns and suburbs Cons have tended to do well in areas that are more old-style working class (or "poorer") and/or older demographic, while they have tended to do relatively badly in more middle-class, and/or younger areas. Why rural areas are such a stronghold for the Tories is something that deserves a bit more explanation. Is it just that the people living here tend to be older?

Anonymous said...

If your politics are essentially right-wing then why vote Labour when you could just vote Tory? And if your politics are essentially left-wing then why vote Labour when the party is controlled by people who openly hate the left and everything it stands for?

So popular support for the Labour party is increasingly reduced to ... Guardian columnists (or those who agree with them) who are neither right-wing or left-wing, but sort-of liberal in a very general sense. No party is ever going to win a general election on that basis.

Especially since there is already a Lib-Dem party that exists for the specific purpose of filling that gap between left and right.

To be honest about it, it seems obvious that for all their talk of "electability", the centre/right of Labour is much more concerned with controlling the party than they are with winning general elections.

McIntosh said...

Are the 4 yooung men in the picture actors made up to look like Conservatives or are they actually, existing Conservatives?