Is Boris Johnson Losing It?

Not the plot, nor his grasp on the crisis which has been woeful from the beginning. I'm talking his grip on public opinion. Since emerging back into view his performance has proven pretty lacklustre as the mounting contradictions and incompetencies of his government catch up with him. Take last night's address as a case in point. A muddled slogan, a pledge to keep the virus under control and ... calling for a generalised return to work for construction and manufacturing. Matters were no better in the Commons this afternoon. Questioned by Keir Starmer all he could do was bluster and chunter as it was revealed the rules governing the return to work hadn't been released yet. Compounding Johnson's woes are the - right - refusals of the governments of Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland to follow his plan, and the absurdity of some of the new rules too. You can arrange to meet a family member as long as the appropriate distance is adhered to, but only one at a time. With the wheels coming off, is Johnson finally in danger of being seen less Churchill, and more over the hill? Is this the beginning of the end?

I made the mistake of nearly writing Johnson off before. That was in a period of acute crisis in his party operating in a hung parliament. Now he has a huge majority and is soaring in the polls, although this has more to do with sections of the voters rallying around the government as the sole means of organising the nationwide struggle with coronavirus. Therefore, while it is obvious to the great bulk of people reading these words think Johnson is making a hash of it, is this the case for ordinary punter land? For the centrists gripped by Keir's Commons outings it's obvious quoting numbers and dates at Johnson, for whom detail is delegated to minions, are so much gotchas. But if the never-ending political crisis of last Autumn taught us anything, with larger audiences, constitutional outrages galore and some of the most awful performances ever turned in by a Prime Minister Johnson's incompetence was confirmed only among those who already thought Johnson was incompetent. For those who switched to the Tories in December, it merely confirmed his seriousness of intent.

Alas, this situation requires adroitness and skill. One cannot simply barrel through and call the opposition disloyal or motivated by petty point scoring, though that hasn't stopped some Tory outriders. What is going to do for Johnson are not the mixed up figures and stumbling delivery, but the direct experience of voters themselves. Among cohorts of workers getting sent back to work on Wednesday is that layer of older manufacturing workers who voted Brexit, and lent the Tories their votes to get it done. Giving the government the benefit of the doubt is easy when other people are in harm's way, but grows more difficult when you and your family are expected to risk yourselves. And as the infection rate goes up as per the easing of lockdowns everywhere else, so will the jitters, the worries, and the discontent. Likewise, as others start losing their jobs because they refuse to return to work, this will have knock on effects not to the Tories' advantage. Even the ludicrous switch from Stay at Home to Stay Alert, with its lists of absurd dos and don'ts is problematic because it impinges on the everyday and introduces confusion into what was an irksome but easily understood set up. When even Philip Schofield is articulating the worries of his daytime audiences and saying "if this was in a farce in the telly no government would arse it up that much", the government have got to watch themselves. But it appears not. Almost, you might say, as if they have other concerns at the forefront of their approach.

This then is the moment of maximum danger for Johnson, and is make or break time for the remainder of their government. The leeway gifted him by the situation is not infinitely wide, and while he has escaped political penalty for the accumulating count of largely unnecessary and preventable deaths, easing restrictions amidst a muddle of new rules and sending millions back to work where a new spike in infections awaits means his Covid-19 honeymoon is likely to get cut short. A pity, an entirely avoidable pity that many lives will be too. There is then no hiding for Johnson this time. This reckless and unforgivable decision is entirely his.

Image Credit