Friday 1 April 2016

Quarter One Local By-Election Results 2016

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q4
Average/
contest
+/-  
Q4
+/-
Seats
Conservative
   47
17,270
  27.0%
 +0.1%
    367
   -106
    -7
Labour
   39
17,979
  28.1%
 +5.0%
    461
   +16
     0
LibDem
   35
10,508
  16.4%
 +2.9%
    300
    -22
   +1
UKIP
   30
 6,160
    9.6%
 +3.8%
    205
   +46
    -1
Green
   22
 2,264
    3.5%
  -0.7%
    103
    -21
   +1
SNP*
    3
 3,585
    5.6%
  -8.2%
  1,195
   -177
   +1
PC**
    0
     
   
  
   
   
     0
TUSC
    1
   142
    0.2%
 +0.1%
    142
   +106
     0
Ind***
   21
 2,275
    3.6%
  -5.3%
    108
    -247
   +5
Other****
    4
 1,840
    2.9%
 +0.9%
    460
   +260
     0


* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were two by-elections in Wales
*** There were three independent clashes
**** Others this quarter were Holland-on-Sea Residents' Association (1,781 votes), Christian People's Alliance (12 votes), All-People's Party (38 votes), and the Pirate Party (9 votes)

Overall, 63,891 votes were cast over 47 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 14 council seats changed hands. For comparison see Quarter Four 2015's results here.

The second full quarter with Jeremy in charge and Labour carries a narrow lead with it, despite a not-very-good set of results for March. While one shouldn't read too much into by-election vote totals, it does mirror the convergence the polls have been reporting over the course of the last month. Once more the LibDems easily out poll UKIP, which is something the polls stubbornly refuse to pick up on. It's been almost a year since the general election and I refuse to believe that every month since has seen the yellow party's performance as being an artifact of by-election demographics. Ditto for the purples too. There is a definite trend and it's sailing under the professionals' radar.

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