Evading the Simple Fact

The Green Party is officially over. Zack Polanski is yesterday's chip wrappings. They, like Reform, are done and we can go back to politics as usual. Such as being captivated by the attempted putsch against Ed Davey. Such is the verdict of a swathe of the political establishment following Labour's handy victory over the Greens in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Needless to say, this is just not a credible position.

Looking at the vote, Labour's share more or less stood still - declining from 49% to 45%, whereas the Greens surged from 10% to 32%. Despite reports by politics Twitter personalities that Tories and Liberal Democrat voters were lending Labour their votes following the passing of the Zionism is Racism motion at last weekend's Green conference, their proportions were virtually static - indicating a marginal phenomenon, or an effort at attention-seeking. Determining which from which is up to you. Obviously, this result was helped by the decision of Andrew Feinstein, who came second in 2024, to not stand and endorse the Greens. But some might have expected the Greens to do better, seeing as they were standing their best known public figure.

The reason Polanski didn't doesn't require preternatural powers of divination. Simply, politics has changed. For many Green-leaning Labour voters, their party is on the right track again. Andy Burnham has set out a destination, and enough are convinced that he's sincere about getting there. The polls tell this tale as well. The dip in the Greens' fortunes coincide with Burnham's anointing as Keir Starmer's successor. And it doesn't require any more in-depth analysis than this. When Labour put themselves at odds with the interests and outlooks of its voter coalition, supporters look elsewhere. Commentators will riff off conference motions and Polanski's social media faux pas, but they're playing an establishment avoidance strategy - an effort to evade and not present the simple fact that left wing solutions to problems, even when they're wrapped in soft left clothing, are popular.

Image Credit