The Null Montie

Without a doubt this has been the worst week in Reform's short history. Their party conference was meant to draw a line under Nigel Farage's summer humiliation in which he bravely fought off Count Binface, three Monster Raving Loony candidates, and the continuity SDP to retain his Clacton seat. This was going to be the moment in which Reform showed the world that they meant business, and unveiled their plan to do away with British democracy within 100 days of taking office. Instead, the headlines Farage was hoping for were eclipsed by Channel Four News's funding sting, that forced out chief Farage baggage handler Dan Jukes and James Orr, amusingly a specialist in (religious) ethics at Cambridge. And if had that not happened, Zia Yusuf loomed large - delivering a message of support to the Dover blackshirts in defiance of Farage's condemnation of them. He has since gone on to announce a de facto leadership bid in the event of Farage's departure. And there were ugly scenes from within the conference itself, with an assault of a female protestor going viral. Everything was in the spotlight except for Reform's key messages. And now, on Wednesday, Tim Montgomerie has announced his resignation from the party.

Some might recall his joining Reform in December 2024. And because everyone in the media knows him, he got more coverage for doing so than all the second rank Tory defections - Nadhim Zahawi, Nadine Dorries, Jake Berry. Speaking on Politics Live, Montgomerie said he remained a supporter of the party and made his fanboyish affections for Farage obvious, but argued the party was too unruly. Chief culprit is Yusuf's chaos agent cosplay, for whom the concept of party discipline is an alien notion. He is "supremely talented" and a "gifted communicator" - two phrases that were often uttered by prominent-but-frustrated Tory defectors throughout the conference. But Farage needs to rein him if the professionalisation of Reform is to succeed. Montgomerie also said he told Lee Anderson last week that we wanted to continue to be the party's critical friend and make public his views without embarrassing them, or causing issues over their suspension of him, and so was stepping away. How thoughtful.

Unfortunately for Reform, Montgomerie's resignation is symptomatic of the party's failing bid to replace the Conservatives as the preferred political choice of the ruling class. And that long predates Yusuf and his manoeuvres. Notably, the difficulties Farage has faced - the exposure of their murky funding arrangements, which are now subject to a handful of police investigations, came from the right wing press. And particularly The Times. Obviously, none of this would have happened had Uncle Rupert or another of the Murdoch family said no. The timing then is interesting, and suggests that they think Farage in Number 10 would be detrimental to their interests. For one, the erosion of democratic institutions and press freedoms seen wherever Reform's overseas stable mates have taken office hasn't always been congenial to the interests of media moguls. Fine for those on board with far right governments, but here in Britain the press barons are accustomed to dictating terms to Number 10, not the other way round. Or to put it another way, there are doubts Farage and his government could be controlled.

Second, Reform's programme is hardly congenial to stability. Theirs is an explicit class politics for keeping labour at heel, and smashing up opposition through the demolition of state institutions crucial for sustaining mass stakes in and tacit support for British capitalism. The political moment simply does not require it. Andy Burnham's emollient words nor his programme are hardly a threat to contemporary class relations. In fact, as far as the bottom line goes capital with interests in domestic markets and the near abroad would like to see more stability, especially when the shocks keep coming - war, energy prices, climate disaster. Reform want unnecessary class war when most of British business is content with the class peace they have.

Third, what is the coalition of class interests Reform already has in the van? The most backward sections of capital: coupon clippers from the City who remain Brexit true believers, tax exiles, cryptomongers, myriad petty business people and farmers and, crucially, Silicon Valley "disruptors" bent on aggressive take overs of key sectors of the British economy. People who are smash and grab and have no time for the dependencies the British state and ruling class have built with the United States. Collectively their interests is a minority interest within the minority interest of our betters, and one that sits in tension. A Farage government in these circumstance would be a Liz Truss moment, as far as their politics are concerned.

Montgomerie then, as a respected figure on the right, was something of a canary down the coal mine. If he could thrive more than survive, given his propensity to speak his mind, he might have been the bridge for more of the British right and therefore the interests historically tied up with the Tories to cross over. But Reform can no more move away from their corner of ruling class support than the Tories can from their broader bourgeois base. Indeed, Yusuf's antics can be read as having the consequences of protecting this constellation of interests from getting diluted by more "mainstream" concerns, represented by Tory-supporting sections of capital. Indeed, he has gone out of his way to highlight the differences between his type of right wing politics and conservatism in its British varieties.

To put it more succinctly, Reform has served a purpose in steering politics toward the beggar-thy-neighbour politics of culture war scapegoating, but anything beyond that is not where the bulk of British capital wants to go. At present.

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