Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Apr
|
+/- May 24
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
106
| 39,991 |
19.6%
| +6.5 |
-7.4
|
377
|
-2
|
Labour
|
104
| 34,061 |
16.7%
| -2.9 |
-18.1
| 328
|
-33
|
Lib Dem
|
87
| 46,074
|
22.6%
| +1.7 |
+3.8
|
530
|
+2
|
Reform*
|
88
| 47,049
|
23.1%
| +3.4 |
+22.6
|
535
| +34
|
Green
|
85
| 21,821
|
10.7%
| - 2.6
|
-0.8
|
257
|
+3
|
SNP**
|
1
| 1,039 |
0.5%
| -6.8 |
+0.0
| 1,039
|
0
|
PC***
|
2
| 261 |
0.1%
| -3.1 |
+0.1
| 131
|
0
|
Ind****
|
41
| 9,038 |
4.4%
|
+0.1
|
220
|
-3
| |
Other*****
|
27
|
2.2%
| +1.7 |
-1.1
|
167
|
-1 |
* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There was one by-election in Scotland
*** There were two by-elections in Wales
**** There were five Independent clashes
***** Others this month consisted of Alba (47), Blue (11), Christian People's Alliance (23), Gwlad (9), Heritage (44, 16), Homeland (26), Jago (7), Liberal (16), Oxted Residents (890), Patria (7, 7), Rejoin EU (65), Scottish Family Party (25), Tattenham's Residents (2,084), Tunbrudge Wells Alliance (416, 62), TUSC (91, 91, 47, 30, 23, 10), UKIP (21, 15, 14, 10), Workers Party (398)
Behold, Labour's worst ever council by-election results since this blog started covering them in 2013. Keir Starmer can slap himself on the back for achieving an even worse result Keir Starmer managed on May 2021. The Tories never performed as badly as this, even when their ratings were in the toilet and Liz Truss was still in office. What happened here was an extension of last month, which was the first time in "normal circumstances" that neither of the main government parties were placed in the top two, and bodes ill for parliamentary by-elections over this Parliament. The momentum is with Nigel Farage, with the Liberal Democrats being the alternative "progressive" protest vote du jour.
A lot can happen in four years, but unless Labour ditches its deeply unpopular leader and adopts the sort of policy orientation that normally provide the reasons why people vote for the party, there's no recovery from this. No amount of right wing spinning is going to win over those who vote Reform, but it will disgust those ordinarily supportive of Labour who will go elsewhere. Which, ironically, means more easy victories for Farage as his party makes hay with divided opponents. This is known to the higher ups in Downing Street, and yet they carry on down this destructive path.
What this means for council by-elections is a further chipping away at Labour's local government base and the demoralisation of the skeleton crew of activists left. There are fewer by-elections scheduled for June, but we can more or less forecast the month's results now. And in July. And August. And until the right wingers that have hollowed out the party and its support are gone.
1st May
Amber Valley, Ironville & Riddings, Ind gain from Lab
Amber Valley, Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley, Con gain from Lab
Bassetlaw, Beckingham, Ref gain from Ind
Bassetlaw, Sturton, Ref gain from Lab
Blaby, Glen Parva, Ref gain from LDem
Boston, Trinity, Ref gain from Ind
Breckland, Thetford Priory, Ref gain from Lab
Bridgend, Pyle, Kenfig Hill & Cefn Cribwr, Ref gain from Lab
Brighton & Hove, Westbourne & Poets' Corner, Lab hold
Cambridge, East Chesterton, LDem gain from Lab
Cambridge, West Chesterton, LDem gain from Lab
Cannock Chase, Norton Canes, Con gain from Lab
Chelmsford, Moulsham & Central, LDem hold x2
Cheltenham, Charlton Kings, LDem hold
Cherwell, Banbury Cross & Neithrop, Con gain from Lab
Cherwell, Banbury Grimsbury & Hightown, Lab hold
Cherwell, Deddington, Con hold
Chesterfield, Brampton East & Boythorpe, LDem gain from Lab
Chichester, Midhurst, LDem hold
Chorley, Chorley East, Ref gain from Lab
Cotswold, Tetbury with Upton, Con gain from LDem
Cotswold, Watermoor, LDem hold
East Cambridgeshire, Stretham, LDem hold
East Hertfordshire, Braughing & Standon, Ref gain from Con
Eastbourne, Langney, LDem hold
Eastbourne, Upperton, LDem hold
Erewash, Cotmanhay, Ref gain from Lab
Erewash, Kirk Hallam & Stanton By Dale, Con gain from Lab
Erewash, Nottingham Road, Con gain from Lab
Essex, Chelmsford Central, LDem hold
Exeter, Mincinglake & Whipton, Ref gain from Lab
Exeter, Topsham, Lab hold
Forest of Dean, Cinderford East, Ref gain from Lab
Forest of Dean, Newent & Taynton, Con gain from LDem
Gedling, Porchester, Lab hold
Gravesham, Rosherville, Lab hold
Hampshire, Winchester Eastgate, LDem hold
Hampshire, Yateley East & Blackwater, LDem hold
Harlow, Mark Hall, Ref gain from Lab
Hartlepool, Throston, Ref gain from Lab
Isle of Wight, Central Rural, Ref gain from Con
Isle of Wight, Freshwater South, Ind gain from Oth
Isle of Wight, Lake North, Ref gain from Con
Lambeth, Herne Hill & Loughborough Junction, Grn gain from Lab
Lancaster, John O'Gaunt, Grn hold
Lichfield, Curborough, Ref gain from Lab
Melton, Croxton Kerrial, Con gain from Ind
Mid Devon, Clare & Shuttern, LDem hold
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Knutton, Ref gain from Lab
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Loggerheads, Con hold
Norfolk, Mancroft, Grn hold
Norfolk, Marshland North, Ref gain from Con
Norfolk, Thetford West, Ref gain from Lab
North Devon, Barnstaple with Pilton, LDem hold
North Norfolk, Holt, LDem gain from Con
North Warwickshire, Arley & Whitacre, Ref gain from Lab
North Warwickshire, Atherstone Central, Ref gain from Lab
Norwich, Bowthorpe, Lab hold
Norwich, Mancroft, Grn hold
Norwich, Sewell, Grn hold
Oxford, Headington Hill & Northway, Lab hold
Pendle, Vivary Bridge, Ref gain from Con
Peterborough, Barnack, Ind gain from Con
Redbridge, Hainault, Lab hold
Ribble Valley, St Mary's, LDem gain from Lab
Rochdale, Balderstone & Kirkholt, Ref gain from Lab
Rugby, New Bilton, Lab hold
South Oxfordshire, Wheatley, LDem hold
South Oxfordshire, Watlington, LDem hold
St Albans, Redbourn, LDem hold
Stratford-on-Avon, Alcester West, LDem hold
Stratford-on-Avon, Welford-on-Avon, LDem hold
Stroud, Stroud Central, Grn gain from Lab
Surrey, Nork & Tattenhams, Oth hold
Tandridge, Oxted South, Oth hold
Teignbridge, Teignmouth West, Ref gain from LDem
Tewkesbury, Innsworth, LDem hold
Thanet, Thanet Villages, Ref gain from Con
Thurrock, Ockenden, Ref gain from Con, Ref gain from Lab
Three Rivers, Durrants, LDem hold
Tonbridge & Malling, Snodland East & Ham Hill, Con gain from Lab
Tunbridge Wells, Park, LDem hold
Tunbridge Wells, St John's, LDem hold
Warrington, Great Sankey North & Whittle Hall, Lab hold
Watford, Holywell, Lab hold
Watford, Oxhey, LDem hold
Welwyn Hatfield, Brookmans Park & Little Heath, Con hold
Welwyn Hatfield, Peartree, LDem hold
West Devon, Tavistock North, LDem gain from Ind
West Oxfordshire, Standlake, Aston & Stanton Harcourt, LDem hold
West Sussex, Midhurst, LDem hold
Winchester, Colden Common & Twyford, Grn gain from LDem
Wyre, Park, Ref gain from Lab
8 May
Calderdale, Skircoat, Ref gain from Lab
Eastleigh, Eastleigh Central, LDem hold
15 May
Barnet, Whetstone, Lab hold
Broadland, Acle, Ref gain from Con
Stoke-on-Trent, Birches Head & Northwood, Ref gain from Lab
West Dunbartonshire, Clydebank Waterfront, SNP hold
22 May
Eastleigh, Hedge End South, LDem hold
Sutton, Carshalton South & Clockhouse, LDem hold
West Sussex, Horsham Riverside, LDem hold
29 May
Carmarthenshire, Lliedi, Ref gain from Lab
Castle Point, Canvey Island Winter Gardens, Ref gain from Ind
Lewes, Newhaven North, LDem hold
Maldon, Maldon West, LDem gain from Ind
Image Credit
1 comment:
"And until the right wingers that have hollowed out the party and its support are gone."
Elephant in the room time. CAN they be removed?
The PLP has the motive. But do they have the means and the will?
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