
Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Mar
|
+/- Apr 24
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
13
| 2,589 |
13.1%
| -7.1 |
-17.8
|
199
|
-1
|
Labour
|
12
| 3,891 |
19.6%
| -1.5 |
-2.8
| 324
|
-4
|
Lib Dem
|
11
| 4,143
|
20.9%
| +6.3 |
+1.7
|
377
|
+2
|
Reform*
|
11
| 3,901
|
19.7%
| +3.6 |
+19.1
|
355
|
+3
|
Green
|
9
| 2,644
|
13.3%
| +4.1
|
+8.0
|
294
|
+1
|
SNP**
|
1
| 1,439 |
7.3%
| -1.6 |
-0.6
| 1,439
|
0
|
PC***
|
2
| 629 |
3.2%
| +2.1 |
+3.2
| 315
|
0
|
Ind****
|
5
| 501 |
2.5%
|
-11.8
|
100
|
-1
| |
Other*****
|
4
|
0.5%
| -1.4 |
-4.8
|
23
|
0 |
* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There was one by-election on Scotland
*** There were two by-elections in Wales
**** There were no Independent clashes this month
***** Others in April consisted of Christian People's Alliance (24), Communist League (8), TUSC (25, 34)
Two firsts this month! For the first time ever in a normal set of by-elections, the top two positions popular vote-wise did not feature either Labour or the Tories. The Liberal Democrats came first, and Reform pipped Labour to the post by just 10 votes. And the other? The Greens managed to outpoll the Tories. They haven't even done that to the Lib Dems yet. So credible results for everyone who are not the big two and wooden spoons for them. Particularly Kemi Badenoch's crew who registered their lowest level of support ever, sinking deeper than the 17% they scored in March 2024.
What does it mean? It suggests that a Tory recovery is just not happening, portending a real bloodbath next Thursday. Labour, who did dismally here by dropping four seats, are not in as bad a way as their official opposition, but there's room for them to drop further as stupid and counter=productive policies keep getting rolled out. In all, what might the shape of next month's results look like? A lot like this, I'd wager.
3 April
Lincoln, Park, LDem gain from Lab
Neath Port Talbot, Cwmllynfell & Ystalyfera, LDem gain from Lab
St Helens, Sutton South East, Ref gain from LDem
10 April
Gwynedd, Teigl, PC hold
Haringey, St Ann's, Grn gain from Lab
Sutton, Sutton Central, LDem hold
Tameside, Longdendale, Ref gain from Lab
17 April
Horsham, Colgate & Rusper, LDem gain from Con
Torridge, Appledore, LDem gain from Ind
24 April
Arun, Marine, Ref gain from Ind
Fife, Glenrothes Central & Thornton, SNP hold
Suffolk, St John's, Lab hold
West Berkshire, Thatcham North East, LDem hold
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