The Return of Tory/Reform Coalition Talk

The turning of the politics windmill has brought back chatter about a Tory/Reform coalition. Actually, it was recorded remarks made by Robert Jenrick to an audience of Tory students at UCL back in March that has occasioned this topic's unwelcome return. After disparaging Reform, he said "I want the fight to be united. And so, one way or another, I’m determined to do that and to bring this coalition together and make sure we unite as a nation as well." This has been taken to mean that Jenrick would like a lash up with Reform, with the hapless Kemi Badenoch copping a load of flak for his defying her position (something he's done before), and Reform itself wanting to put distance between themselves and the Tories. It's not often Ann Widdecombe is right, but her "I'm not teaming up with any losers" riposte demonstrates the truth of the broken clock adage.

A read of Jenrick's comments reveals that he was proposing a united coalition of the right in a general sense rather than an alliance with Reform. He confirms what has often been highlighted by this corner of the internet, that his (as well as the project of the Tory right) is a doomed effort at "rebuilding the coalition of voters we had in 2019 and can have again." That said, Jenrick is a slippery politician without an ounce of character, so if there is a Conservative front bencher tipped as leader material and capable of forming a Faustian association with Nigel Farage, it's him.

We've also talked many times about how and why and Tory/Reform alliance is a non-starter for both parties. The Tories simultaneously need to consolidate their base, which has been annexed in large part by Reform. But heading to the right is not going to win many of those disgruntled former supporters back, because Boris Johnson, Brexit betrayals, etc. etc. But as the Tories bear right to prove their politics, which in a certain light makes a bit of sense, they're abandoning the traditional Tory heartlands to the Liberal Democrats. Where Reform are concerned, an alliance with the Tories is unlikely to go down well with their Mr Angry brigades. And recent polling backs this assertion.

Ways around this? An arrangement in 2029 where both parties encourage a low key tactical voting campaign from the right is a possibility. An alliance can't be ruled out in the event of the combined Tory/Reform seat share being enough for a majority, and if that happens all thought about what the base thinks goes out of the window. We saw the Lib Dems torch themselves in 2010 for the chance of ministerial jobs, and one can't suppose Farage would be held back by what the good people of Clacton thinks if similar opportunities open for him. He hasn't demonstrated their limiting influence vis his support for Donald Trump and Russia so far. Similarly, Labour are also machine-gunning their feet, so Reform would be joining what is now an established tradition common to all electorally successful parties - if they do form a government with the Tories.

This is all crystal ball stuff, but does say something about how politics on the right are going to play out over the next four years. Badenoch and her successor, should she suffer the ignominy of the Iain Duncan Smith treatment, are menaced by Reform and cannot conceive of any strategy beyond absorbing them by, effectively, becoming Reform. Life for Farage is much easier. He can rely on the media to continue framing politics around his programme, causing the Tories and Labour to jig along to his racist dirge. The Tories are only a bother when they get too close and too chummy to his party this side of the next election. However this all plays out, the psychodrama on the right, the Conservative inability to cope with a serious rival for the right wing vote is ensuring more bitterness, more poison, and more toxicity will spread from there to the rest of mainstream politics.

Image Credit