Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Dec
|
+/- Jan 24
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
7
| 3,111 |
21.3%
| -0.8 |
-7.9
|
444
|
0
|
Labour
|
6
| 2,489 |
17.1%
| -7.3 |
-11.8
| 415
|
-1
|
Lib Dem
|
7
| 3,182
|
21.8%
| +5.1 |
-6.0
|
455
|
-1
|
Reform*
|
7
| 1,534
|
10.5%
| -5.2 |
+10.3
|
219
|
0
|
Green
|
5
| 825
|
5.7%
| -1.4
|
-1.7
|
165
|
0
|
SNP**
|
2
| 1,405 |
9.6%
| +3.2 |
+5.8
| 703
|
0
|
PC***
|
0
| | |
0
| |||
Ind****
|
10
| 1,982 |
13.6%
|
+12.1
|
198
|
+2
| |
Other*****
|
1
|
0.4%
| -1.2 |
-1.0
|
65
|
0 |
* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There were three by-elections in Scotland
*** There were no by-elections in Wales
**** There were two Independent clashes
***** Others this month consisted of the Scottish Family Party (65)
January is a funny month for by-elections, and 2025 has proven no exception. Abnormally large vote shares for the SNP and Independents have depressed everyone else's vote share. It would therefore be wrong to suppose anything from these results. But let's be foolish. Conservatives and Labour continue to suffer as per the polls, but again and arguably, SNP/Indie caveats aside, Reform continue to underperform their polling. Surely it can't be the case that the media and mainstream politics are over-hyping them, which is feeding through to the pollsters? Likewise, for some time the Liberal Democrats have outperformed polling numbers in actual elections. Is the real politics of elections something going by unseen by those paid to watch such things?
9 January
North Devon, Instow, LDem gain from Con
16 January
Bath & North East Somerset, Ind gain from LDem
Cotswold, Chesterton, LDem hold
23 January
Edinburgh, Colinton/Fairmilehead, Con gain from SNP, Lab gain from LDem
Liverpool, Much Woolton & Hunts, LDem hold
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Town, Lab hold
Shetland, Shetland North, Ind gain from Lab
Stirling, Bannockburn, SNP gain from Lab
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