Friday 29 June 2018

Local Council By-Elections June 2018

This month saw 36,911 votes cast over 20 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Five council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with May's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
May
+/- June 17
Average/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
           24
  9,753
    26.4%
 -12.8%
     +6.2%
    406
    -3
Labour
           23
 13,760
    37.3%
  -0.4%
      -1.7%
    598
   +1
LibDem
           21
  8,408
    22.8%
 +7.6%
    +12.0%
    400
   +6
UKIP
            4
    463
     1.3%
 +0.7%
     +1.2%
    116
    -2
Green
           10
  1,683
     4.6%
  -0.4%
     -12.7%
    168
     0
SNP
            0
   
   
 
     0
PC**
            0
  
    
 
      
   
     0
Ind***
            7
  2,232
     6.0%
 +4.6%
     +1.2%
    319
   +1
Other****
            2
   612
     1.7%
 +0.8%
      -5.6%
    253
     0

* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were no Independent clashes in June
**** Others this month consisted of the Yorkshire Party (570) and the BNP (42)

Eagle-eyed readers might spot discrepancies between the number of candidates and by-elections, and the plus/minus figures for council seats lost and gained. Do I have dodgy maths? No.  There were three seats up in a single ward in Brent (all retained by Labour), and a new three-seat ward in Southwark was created, all of whom were gained by the Liberal Democrats.

Is there anything worth noting this month? The LibDem surge this month appears to be entirely at the expense of the Conservatives, though when we're totting up local by-elections the numbers are always more complex than Parliamentary elections. However, two of their haul is at the latter's expense, which is consistent with my view that the LibDems are better off going for soft, remain-leaning Tory voters than doubling down on the anti-Corbyn stuff. If you don't believe it (or don't want to believe it), look at the by-election patterns over the last year. Before the general election the LibDems did quite well taking councillors off each of the two big parties. Now, they disproportionately advance at the Tories' expense. For instance, in 2018 they have gained one seat at Labour's expense, and 11 from the Conservatives. It's pretty clear where their energies should lie.

7th June
East Staffs BC, Crown Con hold
Mid Devon DC, Cranmore Con hold
South Oxfordshire, Benson and Crowmarsh LDem gain from Con

14th June
Doncaster MB, Town Lab hold
Southwark LB, London Bridge & Bermondsey West New Ward LDem gain x3

21st June
Basildon BC, Lee Chapel North Lab hold
Basildon BC, Pitsea South East Lab gain from UKIP
Basingstoke and Deane BC, Kempshott Con hold
Brent LBC, Willesden Green Lab hold x3
Charnwood BC, Quorn & Mountsorrel Castle Con hold
Cherwell BC, Bicester West Ind gain from Con
Fenland DC, Birch Con hold
South Northamptonshire DC, Astwell Con hold
South Northamptonshire DC, Whittlewood LDem gain from Con
Watford BC, Oxhey LDem hold
West Somerset DC, Alcombe LDem gain from UKIP

28th June
Leicestershire CC, Syston Ridgeway Con hold
North Devon DC, Fremington Ind hold
North Kestevan DC, North Hykeham Mill Con hold
North Kestevan DC, Skellingthorpe Ind hold

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