From Brexit to Frexit?

If you're sparing a thought for Nigel Farage this Sunday, his exposed links to a convicted fraudster are likely to colour them. The Sunday Times writes that Farage received security support, housing perks, and staff funded by crypto "entrepreneur", George Cottrell. Deliciously, Cottrell was arrested in the US in Farage's company in 2017, after doing the rounds at that year's Republican convention. These benefits were, apparently, provided in the lead up to the 2024 general election and, what with Farage's custom and practice, they were not declared.

It's been a bad week for the Reform leader. We learned he'd pocketed £270k fronting a gold bullion dealer, and that he has acquired a £4m property portfolio. He also got testy being pressed on his £5m gift from Christopher Harborne, the Thailand-based crypto billionaire and Russian oil profiteer. From BBC Breakfast's Sally Nugent, to TalkTV's Julia Hartley-Brewer, and LBC's Nick Ferrari, he came across as exasperated, petulant, and annoyed that he should get questioned on this topic. This comes after a poor campaign in Makerfield, where Farage went to ground to avoid those giving answers. These difficulties and his uncharacteristic avoidance of the media spotlight have led some to ask the unthinkable: is Farage long for this political world?

Undoubtedly, it's a question Farage will be asking himself. He will apparently be taking a long break this summer, which will be good news for Andy Burnham and gives his government plenty of opportunities to set the political agenda. But might Farage throw in the towel? It must be tempting. According to former Farage lackey Ben Habib, Farage stood in the election because Harborne ponied up the cash. His frequent issues with not declaring earnings is a sign of a politician on the make, and while not the wealthiest MP he did report the largest income from outside interests - the eight or nine second jobs he's taken since his election as the very occasional representative for Clacton. For Farage, he's got to know that life would be easier and his earning power not dimmed too much if he walked away.

Consider the parliamentary standards investigation. Given precedent, he won't walk away with a slapped wrist. Indeed, a Commons suspension and a recall petition are the likely consequences of the Harborne affair. Undoubtedly exacerbated by the multiple occasions he's failed to declare earnings, including today's Times splash. Unless all the other parties could get behind a squeaky clean anti-corruption but non-political figure, like finance guru Martin Lewis, Farage would surely win the by-election. But would he want to fight a campaign when it's his money grubbing that's the reason for and the focus of the contest? Does Farage want to risk the awkward viral videos of having random Clacton'ers berating him, or having a strip torn off him on a previous Reform voter's doorstep?

The second issue is his political future. Braving the by-election means more years of scrutiny and accountability. It's possible, thanks to past behaviour, that there are going to be future non-declarations, and perhaps more Commons investigations. But supposing those storms are weathered, everything goes wrong because Burnham turns out to be no different to Keir Starmer and Farage finds himself in Number 10. Not only would this be the gravest disaster in British political history, it would be an opportunity for him and his lieutenants to engorge themselves. However, Farage is a greedy man, not a stupid man. Does he want a future where yes, he can fill his boots, but afterwards face possible pursuit by whoever might succeed him. Would Farage rather spend his infirm old age relaxing on sun loungers, or fending off investigations, legal challenges, criminal probes, imprisonment? Hence why the Reform leader's Frexit can't be entirely discounted.

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