From Reform-Lite to Reform-Plus

Do you remember the lies Keir Starmer told to secure Labour's leadership? Under pledge six, 'Defend immigrants' rights', among other things he committed himself to "An immigration system based on compassion and dignity". A little over five years later, the government he leads has promised to confiscate the jewellery of refugees that arrive on these shores. And so, when Shabana Mahmood got up at the dispatch box on Monday, we knew the home secretary was going to perform a theatre of cruelty.

Mahmood's measures, that were splashed across the Sunday press, are well known by now. On top of stealing people's keepsakes, a refugee will only be allowed to settle permanently after 20 years, with periodic checks on their status. I.e. If the country they fled is deemed safe, they will be expected to return. There will be an increase in (capped) "legal" refugee routes that, confusingly, are dubbed 'work' and 'study'. Which sounds more appropriate to conventional migration than people fleeing war and persecution. Also in are "return hubs" for people who have their applications rejected, legislation will be brought forward to narrowly define "family" to get around the European Convention's article on refugees having a right to family life, and recourse to public funds will be further restricted.

Why? The government have spun a tissue of lies. The home secretary says this country is a des res while playing into the right wing narrative that Britain is a soft touch. As the figures show, in Western Europe the UK is fifth behind Italy, France, Spain, and Germany for applications - coincidentally the other four big, rich countries in our part of the world. Still, this exercise in depravity was never about the truth or actually taking right wing arguments on. Labour are quite happy to cultivate their own scapegoats. That this is likely to create new opportunities for bosses who would exploit illegal working is not a problem either. Just as Suella Braverman dreamed of chartered jets taking plane loads of refugees to Rwanda, so Mahmood, Starmer, and their creatures think ICE-style raids and busts make for great PR.

How has it been taken? In the Commons debate following the statement, Karen Bradley asked about putting refugees into life-long debt as a means of securing their cooperation. Mahmood's reply was "I'll think about it." Recent recruit to the Nigel Farage personality cult, Danny "Freddy" Kruger welcomed the initiatives and invited her to follow him into Reform. Also happy is Elon Musk's fully purchased fascist, Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, who took to social media to congratulate "patriots" for "smashing the Overton Window." Also a fan is far right grifter and failed UKIP candidate, Carl Benjamin, who thanked Labour for "introducing the infrastructure for mass deportations" that a future Reform government would use.

At any point up until it took office, Labour would have attacked these proposals had the Tories advanced them. Though, their congenital cowardice would have opined about "costs" and "impracticalities", just as they did with the foul Rwanda scheme. And had Reform offered it up, this would have been dubbed evidence of their extremism. Yet it's Labour, an ostensible centre left government doing these things. Why then? Going full bore on asylum, leapfrogging both the Tories and Reform is supposed to signal this government's seriousness and determination. The performative cruelty of picking refugees' pockets will appeal to the layers of Reform support motivated by spite, and get off on spectacles of punching down. The upset among liberal opinion and Labour backbenchers is something Morgan McSweeney and his strategy bros will be cheering. Such opposition shows that Number 10 are a million miles from wishy-washy politics, or the compassion Starmer once spoke cynically of. And it puts the right on the spot. The Tories have said they would support, not that they're relevant. But what of Reform? Kruger's joshing aside, Farage said he supported the government's language but was "undecided" at this stage because the ECHR remains. Instantly, Labour's shift from Reform-lite to Reform-plus has left Farage dithering in the dust. Another reason glasses will be clinked in Downing Street tonight. They think they've pulled off a political coup.

They have done nothing of the sort. Starmer, Mahmood, and McSweeney are testing to destruction the idea that stealing the far right's clothes will win them far right votes. They are about to be disappointed. But what it will certainly do is alienate further Labour's fast declining reservoir of support. If the strategy is now 'it's us or Farage', to stand a chance Labour has to consolidate its support. Instead, this is another moment in its dispersal. Pitching from gaming First-Past-the-Post to holding seats by mobilising voters can only work if you haven't repeatedly stated in the language of policy how much you hate them and disregard their views and interests. Given the damage this Labour leadership has done to the party's coalition, it's difficult to see how it can come back from this new abysmal low.

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