Another Strange Death of Liberal England?

Labour's bum note of a triumph in July found its echo in the Liberal Democrats' performance. 72 seats was their best ever performance under modern branding, and you'd have to go back to December 1923 when Herbert Asquith re-entered the Commons with 158 MPs to find them doing better. But the blight in the Lib Dems' garden was the strength of support. 3.5m votes was down on the widely-panned 2019 result. Therefore, while there was much gaiety and partying at conference last week the more thoughtful have been asking why they didn't do better. Especially when taking the circumstances into account.

To be fair to the Lib Dems, within a week of the general election the naysayers were getting published on Lib Dem Voice with refreshing outbreaks of honesty. For example, Chris Whiting wrote that the haul of formerly Tory-held constituencies creates a pressure for the Lib Dems to move right to keep hold of them next time round. He argues this would be a mistake as the Lib Dems are seen as a centre left progressive force by the public and, by implication, the Tories were turfed out in fall cognisance of this fact. Instead, if the party wants to improve on 72 seats between now and the next election it has to stay where it is and swoop in as Labour lurches rightward. A point made here enough times.

Going from his leader's speech, Ed Davey partly disagrees. He also means to carry on as the Lib Dems have been. I.e. No peddling back on the positions the party has taken, and the emphasis on adult social care stays. Nor is there going to be a lurch to the left to intersect with those appalled by Labour's cutting and grasping. Davey has set out his doctrine of "constructive opposition". I.e. Using his two weekly questions at PMQs to cast the Lib Dems as a grown up, critically supportive opposition that isn't out to score points. A lofty ambition in the yah boo sucks pantomime of the Commons, so we'll see how long that lasts. But what Davey is banking on is that when the new Tory leader takes office, they're going to carry on in the same stupid and arrogant way that cost them the election and, by default, the Lib Dems will look better and be poised to take even more seats off the Tories next time. Worth nothing the party is still second placed in more Conservative held than Labour-held seats. And because the mood of British politics has apparently turned toward sensible sensiblism what with Keir Starmer's election, the Lib Dems can profit.

It's a coherent strategy, and one that might navigate the pitfalls of turning too left or too right. It could work. The dream of the Lib Dems coming second and forming the official opposition is far from dead. But it's not without difficulties. Not moving left leaves the field open to the Greens and possibly other left wing forces (if they get their act together), giving both of them a leg up. In the case of the Greens, this is especially dangerous to Lib Dem fortunes because not only is it winning over the more radicalised sections of the new working class, the last two years' worth of council results and winning Waveney Valley and North Hertfordshire from the Tories demonstrates a capacity to eat into the vote that, elsewhere, was predisposed to support the Lib Dems. And this despite the Greens standing on a radical left manifesto.

The opportunities that lie ahead for the Liberal Democrats are pregnant with dangers. It might be that Davey's strategy pays off. His constructive opposition shtick does take more seats from the Tories next time, and sitting Lib Dem MPs largely retain their seats thanks to a parliamentary term of hyper local campaigning. But eschewing the politics might let their Green rivals chip away at the foundations of the decent seat tally the party has built. A reminder that moments of opportunities are also moments of crisis, and this is one that could lead to another strange death of Liberal England.

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