No Change after Tamworth and Mid-Beds

It's squeaky bum time in Tory land. Thursday's by-elections in supposedly-safe Tamworth and supposedly-safe Mid-Bedfordshire should destroy any complacency that set in following the narrow Uxbridge hold. Tamworth was always the more likely of the two to go Labour's way. The disgraced sex pest Christopher Pincher was returned with a 20,000 majority at the last election, and when the scandal blew up last summer I thought it likely the seat would come to Labour in the event of a by-election. So it has proved. Congratulations to Sarah Edwards for becoming Labour's sole MP in Staffordshire, for the moment. Mid-Bedfordshire was going to be tougher. The seat had never returned a Labour MP and was the bluest of true blue Tory fortresses. Furthermore, there was a concern that a strong Liberal Democrat challenge, which did materialise, would split the anti-Tory vote and let them retain the seat. In the end, those fears proved unfounded. A 24,000-strong majority evaporated and Labour snatched it.

Doing the TV rounds this morning, I almost pitied Greg Hands and his defence of a pitiful performance. Putting a brave face on things, he noted Labour's absolute vote tallies were either slightly down or practically static. This suggested most Tory supporters remained at home and would turn out when presented with an exciting offer. What might this be? Hands pointed to Rishi Sunak's cancellation of HS2, the smoking ban, and abolishing A-Levels. One is left wondering how this will fire Tory-leaning hearts further down the line when they're fresh in the memory and have proven less than beguiling to the faithful. Other Tories are a bit more on the ball. David Frost, who can do deluded with the best of them, found the official optimism too much to stomach. He said both results were worse than what is getting reported by the polls, and denying the party is in a hole won't help. This is backed up by mutters faithfully relayed by the politics stenographers that Tory MPs are preparing their letters of no confidence. But, officially at least, the government are putting on a brave face and insist that they're carrying on with their "plan".

The problem for the Tories is that both by-elections could support the warm bath of continued complacency. Hands finds solace in the low turn out, but others might look at the results of Reform, the artists formerly known as the Brexit Party. Despite getting talked up incessantly by the right wing press, their performance was somewhat short of fantastic. In Tamworth Reform managed to save its deposit and polled 1,373 votes. In Mid Bedfordshire it got 3.7%, or 1,487 votes. It hardly takes a forensic mind to note Labour's respective majorities are 1,316 and 1,192. Some might think that if the Tories embraced proper Conservative policies the difference would not have been split, and both seats would have stayed blue. This argument could prove attractive to Tory MPs for reasons other than an affinity with anti-woke posturing. For one, especially among the 2019 Tories, the common sense is they won their seats because the Leave voters abandoned by Labour supported Brexit for racist reasons. Doubling down on this might save their bacon. For another, with a Labour tidal wave incoming the Tories have to hold on to as much as they can so there's something left to salvage in the aftermath. Abandoning any effort at reaching out and going for a core vote strategy might save a handful of seats for the easy life of opposition, until (they think) their turn in office comes round again. Sunak and the rest of the parliamentary party are unlikely to listen to Frost's counsel not because they're blinkered, but because peddling reaction is the only way of saving their livelihood.

What of Labour? There were plenty of superlatives doing the rounds. Keir Starmer said Labour had "smashed it" and the results were a "gamechanger". Wes Streeting also chipped in, describing last night as "extraordinary" and "historic". If it wasn't already obvious after this year's local elections that Labour is well on its way to government, it is now. But like the defeated Tories, it's unlikely these huge wins are going to make any difference to the political trajectory the party is on. Both results are more rooted in disgust with the Conservatives than enthusiasm for Starmer. Consider the behaviour of Pincher and the virtual absence of Nadine Dorries on top of the Tories' record of cronyism and corruption, and the stupid behaviour of the Tories' Tamworth candidate, a cardboard cutout in a red rosette could scarcely have done a worse job. But, you might say, Labour's shift to the right and capitulation to Tory framing on a range of issues has made the party feel like a safe choice for Tory switchers. There is certainly some truth in that. Secondly, Starmer's choice to alibi genocide in Gaza and the subsequent difficulties this has caused the party and its Muslim base appear contained. There was no electoral punishment here for uncritically supporting Israel. Therefore, if Labour are pulling off huge victories like this - and with a couple more by-elections probable in Blackpool South and Wellingborough - why change the strategy?

And then there is turnout. A central feature of Tory excuses, it barely figured in Labour's celebrations. With a swing this big, why bother lamenting? This is true up to a point. By-elections almost always have reduced turnouts compared to general elections, with numbers turning up akin to those who head to the polls for council elections. But the caveats that can be drawn from the Rutherglen victory apply here. I.e. If the support is soft or grudging, that means any party new to government is going to face legitimacy issues fairly quickly. That applies as much to Labour as anyone else. My fear is similar to what we saw in Germany at the last elections and since. The SPD, having alienated so much of its base, gifted it away to the Greens and Free Democrats but took on a soft backlash against the Christian Democrats, enabling them to lead a coalition government. That support has since evaporated and the party is tanking in the polls. Translated to Britain, Starmer is winning soft support but his stance on Israel/Palestine and many other issues have struck at the core components of Labour's voter coalition. Labour will continue winning, but when that stops it's liable to find the bedrock of its most loyal support has crumbled away. Parties that dump on the interests and aspirations of its traditional backers soon notice they cannot do that forever.