Friday 1 April 2022

Local Council By-Elections March 2022

This month saw 25,847 votes cast over 19 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Overall, four council seats changed hands. For comparison with February's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Feb
+/- Mar 21
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
          19
 8,924
    36.2%
  -1.7
    +11.2
    470
    -1
Labour
          14
 3,907
    15.1%
  -5.1
      -4.8
    279
   +1
LibDem
          14
10,183
    39.4%
+13.7
    +34.1
    727
   +1
Green
           9
 1,050
     4.1%
  -3.3
      -2.0
   117
   +1
SNP*
           0
 
    
 
     -33.1
 
     0
PC**
           0
  
    
 
      -2.6
    
     0 
Ind***
           7
 1,227
     4.7%
  -5.0
      -3.0
    175
    -1
Other****
           5
  556
     2.1%
  +1.3
     +1.7
    111
    -1


* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consists of the Christian People's Alliance (35, 27), UKIP (85), Yorkshire Party (53, 356)

These are the sorts of results that have Liberal Democrats dreaming of government. Almost 40%, little yellow hearts everywhere must be fluttering a-crazy. But in real world land, these numbers are what you get when there are shedloads of LibDem defences and Tory defences in their leafy strongholds. Not the most profitable territory for Labour. But there's a unhappy story here for Labour as well, a story of not being able to or not bothering to field enough candidates. For instance, on 10th March not a single Labour candidate stood in any by-election anywhere. This has always been a problem for Labour. Even when the party was overflowing with members, the Conservative Party always out-organised us. The Tories will invariably scrape up someone to stand, no matter how barren the territory. Labour are less fussed. And this is a problem - it makes it more difficult for Labour to build up local profiles, and effectively means writing off swathes of the country as not worth bothering with. Even though campaigns, where they don't win, can succeed in recruiting new members, sourcing new donors, and identifying where its support is. But as Keir Starmer isn't fussed with any of this, by-elections are another sign organisational decay and decrepitude is setting back in.

Thursday 3rd March
East Lindsey: Halton Holegate, Con gain from Ind
Essex: Rayleigh North, LDem hold
New Forest: Hythe West and Langdown, LDem hold
Rochford: Downhall and Rawreth, LDem hold
Sevenoaks: Brasted, Chevening and Sundridge, Con hold
South Somerset: Neroche, LDem gain from Con
Southend-on-Sea: Southchurch, Con hold
Sunderland: Redhill, Lab gain from Oth

Thursday 10th March
Herefordshire: Bromyard West, Ind hold
Hertfordshire: Hitchin South, LDem hold
North Hertfordshire: Hitchin Highbury, LDem hold
Rutland: Ryhall and Casterton, Grn gain from Con

Thursday 24th March
Horsham: Denne, LDem hold
Northumberland: Seghill with Seaton Delaval, Con hold
Test Valley: North Baddesley, LDem hold
Thanet: Nethercourt, Lab hold

Thursday 31st March
Doncaster: Wheatley Hills and Intake, Lab hold
Melton: Melton Sysonby, Con hold
Scarborough: Mayfield, Con hold

3 comments:

Paul Smith said...

'And this is a problem - it makes it more difficult for Labour to build up local profiles, and effectively means writing off swathes of the country as not worth bothering with. Even though campaigns, where they don't win, can succeed in recruiting new members, sourcing new donors, and identifying where its support is. But as Keir Starmer isn't fussed with any of this, by-elections are another sign organisational decay and decrepitude is setting back in.'

Paul Smith said...

I forgot to add my comment to the quotation taken from your article (at the end). It was that the long-term decline of the LP's organization - number of members, their commitment and activity (reversed in the Corbyn years) - is remorseless. The right wing have no wish to reverse this but will suffer as well. Given the loss o Scotland, and wide areas of the English north and midlands, the LP may well be in terminal decline. As a force for social change it is much damaged too.

Phil said...

Re: uncontested elections, superficially the attitude is "We've never won here so why bother?", but that doesn't really explain it - anyone motivated enough to join Labour in a non-Labour area is at the very least a politics hobbyist, and you'd think they'd welcome the chance to get out and fly the flag for the party. There's also an element of defensiveness, of not wanting to rock the boat - people might ask awkward questions, awkward new people might join the party. That "bird in the hand" attitude - the preference for hanging on to what you've got, even if all you've got is a few officer posts in a low-membership local party - runs right through the Labour Right, and it's slowly killing the party.