Quarter One By-Election Results 2022

This quarter 81,526 votes were cast over 53 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison you can view Quarter Four 2021's results here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Q4  21	+/- Q1 2021	Average	+/- Seats
Conservative	53	29,459	36.1%	+4.7	+11.1	556	-1
Labour	44	16,739	20.5%	-6.4	+0.6	380	+2
LibDem	40	22,317	27.3%	+7.9	+22.0	558	+5
Green	30	5,094	6.2%	-2.6	+0.1	213	+2
SNP*	1	1,217	1.5%	-1.1	-31.6	1,217	0
PC**	0						0
Ind***	19	5,834	7.2%	-0.8	-0.5	307	-6
Other****	12	866	1.1%	-1.2	+0.7	72	-2

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were two independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of the Christian People's Alliance (35, 27), For Britain (45), Freedom Alliance (28), Reform UK (64), SDP (12), TUSC (70, 22, 69), UKIP (85), Yorkshire Party (53, 356)

After their car crash in last quarter's elections results, three months' worth of elections on the Tories have stabilised quickly with the net loss of a single councillor and the largest popular vote as well. Boris Johnson really does have luck on his side, though we'll see if the cost of living crisis will start draining enthusiasm from his local authority support. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats rode high with a good number of gains and a very strong showing. Labour limped in as a poor third, but again this has probably more to do with unfriendly seats being up and not standing enough candidates than indifference to Keir Starmer. Though that can't be entirely discounted. Still, coming out two quarters on the trot with the net councillors in the plus column isn't too bad. But a feat easily bettered by the Greens, despite polling a lot less. Their local representative tally has climbed every quarter since Quarter 2. Not shabby.

This far out it's difficult, if not a fools game, to use by-elections as a predictor for this May's local elections. Especially as this quarter has seen significant divergences between the national polls and actual ballots cast. Caveats aside, none of this will stop us scrying April's results for clues about what's in the offing.

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