The Real Electoral Reform Threat to the Right

Shock horror, Labour have announced something that meets with the approval of this corner of the internet. As parliament was shutting up shop for the summer, the government announced its elections strategy paper. This aims to undo some of the damage the Tories have done to voting by expanding voter ID to virtually any and all forms of identification, and clamping down on overseas donations. But it aims for some modest improvements. Sadly, no form of proportional representation, but they are extending the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds, finally bringing Westminster and local government elections into line with devolved contests in Wales and Scotland.

Predictably, the right are very upset. The Tory communities brief, Paul Holmes, called it a "brazen attempt" at constitutional jiggery-pokery, clearly believing this will deliver extra votes to Labour as the Conservatives have given up influencing anyone outside a small segment of the voting public. The Mail have piled in with "proof" that young people are clueless. The Telegraph denounces it as an effort to "rig the system", and a declaration of war on baby boomers, while the equalities shadow Claire Coutinho feebly protested that it would "disrupt exam season".

And then we have the view that is, frankly, delusional. Nigel Farage is opposed to the change, but believes the young are beating a path to Reform's door. Other self-interested idiots think likewise, simply because Farage has wide name recognition and is the butt of many a teenage joke on TikTok. The numbers aren't there in the polling, preferring to rattle around the the imaginations of sundry right wingers.

All this misses the mark, however. 16 and 17 year olds will have marginal effects on the next election and, as plenty have noted, their turnout is likely to be in line with other young people's. I.e. Low. While the right are crying about this, it appears they haven't noticed the real threat to their position: Labour's plan to automatically register voters.

As anyone with the barest acquaintance with election studies know, turnout is lower in urban areas and because voter registration is voluntary, electoral rolls fail to accurately reflect the adult population. Automatic enrolment would see significant rises in electorate size in these places, immediately presenting the need for boundary reviews as many would be larger than the 73k "average" used to determine the present shape of constituencies. Why does this matter? This would entail a redistricting that favours urban areas, while the present over-representation of rural areas and small towns in the Commons would be pared back with a few dozen of them merging and/or disappearing. The constituency map of Britain would actually look more like the demographic map of Britain, making it harder for Reform and/or the Tories to win a Commons majority. Labour might lose out too, as these seats are where a lot of their disaffected base live who might be attracted to the Greens or a new left party. But fundamentally, because of the character of British politics and the long-term trend away from the right, the parties of outright reaction face a difficult uphill struggle.

The question for Labour is how quickly can they get this through? Or more to the point, how quickly do they want to see these changes? And when the right wing press wake up to the threat this poses their parliamentary arms, will Labour go scurrying for cover or stick by its plans? Just this once, here's to hoping the government doesn't perform a u-turn.

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