Can you think of British politics with a Nigel Farage-sized hole in it? This is the subject of this week's Bagehot column in The Economist. We learn that Tory and Labour MPs are in a funereal mood, following their effortless drubbing at the local elections. They do not have a clue about how to counter Reform's surge, and are left hoping that Farage's unhealthy habits - the famed boozing and smoking - make an intervention. What a condemnation of them that it's easier to imagine the death of Farage than defeating him politically. As the piece notes, "Each offers a similar slogan: “Nigel Farage is right — don’t vote for him.”"
Supposing fortune smiles on our discombobulated and panicked MPs, would the removal of Farage from the political scene make a difference? We don't have to commune with Mystic Meg and wait for the planchette to point out an answer because recent political history already spells out what we seek. For example, it wasn't that long ago that Reform looked completely washed up. The crucial factor here was Farage himself, who was too busy earning money as a pundit and jetting off to America to give Donald Trump a hand. The party was in the slow lane, and not even the Liz Truss calamity boosted its fortunes. Had Farage not returned to front line politics, it's unlikely Reform would have broken through in the general election and, instead, it would be the Tories now making the running with the anti-immigration posturing.
Going back a bit further, we can see what happens if a charismatic figure of the extreme right is taken out. Around the turn of the century, Pim Fortuyn welded together a platform with the classical features of populism, of opposing the good, liberal-minded, and gay-friendly Dutch people to criminals, state bureaucrats, and - crucially - Muslims. This was quickly broadened into attacks on multiculturalism and immigration generally. Fortuyn's positioning was enough to cultivate an audience, and during his brief leadership of the Liveable Netherlands party its polling shot up from two per cent to 17%. Following controversial remarks about immigration, he was sacked and founded his own party, Lijst Pim Fortuyn. This took control of Rotterdam council and was poised to make a big splash in parliamentary politics. Unfortunately for him, in May 2002 he was felled by an assassin's bullet. His party went on to win 26 seats but its impact was blunted with the loss of its personification and fell apart in subsequent years, finally dissolving in 2008.
The problem was that Fortuyn was dead, but "Fortuynism" had laid the groundwork for saying the "unsayable". Within a decade of his death, Geert Wilders and his PVV had seized his mantle and had established itself as the (then) third party in the Netherlands. As unstable extreme right parties are, especially so with their dependency on a charismatic leader, they respond to a constituency. Removing such a figure, in the absence of a successful political struggle and addressing the material roots of the far right, will only ever delay things until a new personality becomes the focal point.
If Farage exits the scene, there isn't anyone who can fill his shoes. And this includes Lee Anderson, despite media and elite efforts trying to make something of him. But the hunt will be on. Perhaps with him gone, Boris Johnson might choose that moment to return to the Tories. Some unknown be thrust into the limelight. Or a reformed (pun intended) Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, assuming he's not doing bird, could be available for media rehabilitation. Whatever the case, a dead Farage does not mean a dead Faragism. He was steadily built up through regular BBC appearances in the 00s, and quickly given the flattering treatment by a right wing press then at odds with the "liberal" conservatism of Dave and Osborne. With more opportunities available now, there's more chances at exposure. But also the greater chance of fractiousness, with GB News, the right wing press, and Reform figures likely to favour different candidates. However, Farage is not a one off. There are plenty of would-be Farages out there, and it's exceedingly likely any chaos as the result of an untimely demise will be resolved with the establishment parties finding themselves back in the same position.
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5 comments:
Right. But buying time and kicking the can down the road is really the only game which "the Establishment" has, in this era, isn't it?
Fortunately for the UK , the political Far Right has so far been trapped in a different, but in some key ways (lack of mass attraction to pissed off voters) still very similar dead end to the radical UK Left. Farage encapsulates this so well , in that he is a complete self-serving, egotistical , rogue , (an analogue to the Left's perennial opportunist rogue, Gorgeous George Galloway ) with no real ambition but to be very, very, rich, at the expense of voters who are desperately seeking an alternative to the UK's warmongering , neoliberal "uniparty" that is nowadays always in power , regardless of who wins the election. Farage's political weakness, in terms of a real electoral breakthrough , is that he is , at root, just economically a Right Wing saloon bar Tory, who is no threat at all to the established order . Which is why the mass media have backed him for years as a harmless safety valve for discontent at our rigged electoral system.
Sadly , the UK "Left" (confused Left liberals in the main, not socialists) is trapped in a small, middle class, political bubble , with umpteen duff virtue signalling policies that actually rule out mass voter support too. That some on this "Left" seriously think the absolutely blatant opportunist , Zack Polanski , ex Lid Dem, now a leading part of the always shambolic Greens, is seen as a way forward is both tragic, and laughable.
Eventually a Far Right movement in the UK will arise , in the current UK political impasse , combining pseudo socialist "solutions" and rhetoric with hard core anti immigrant, hyper nationalist policies ( ie "Strasserism" ), as with the growth of Italy's Northern League, and France's National Rally in it's leftish rhetoric phase, in times past, for instance, and we will be in very serious trouble indeed .
Oh? What are these "umpteen virtue signalling policies"...? Don't be shy of flying your regressive colours while you tell us what the way forward is for the left.
Has anyone seriously examined why the Labour Party seems to find it easier to imagine throwing the next GE to Reform, than getting shot of McSweeney and/or Starmer?
Meanwhile, the nationwide transphobe revolt kicked off by the SC ruling continues apace. Every bigot in the country is frantically throwing every spanner that they can lay their hands upon into every works that they can access. Latest casualty, Labour's Women's Conference.
Hopefully it's because the phobes realise that this short-lived window of opportunity to cave a sitting government to their will is their last throw of the dice.
And so far, despite their mysterious bumbling of the optics, Labour seem to be resisting where it counts. They've quietly fought the Tory-led attempt to make GRCs useless through the Data Bill amendment.
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