* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies in Others over the last quarter/year
** There were 40 by-elections in Scotland
*** There were 23 by-elections in Wales
**** There were 37 contests with Independent clashes
***** See the quarterly round ups for the results from smaller parties
Truly a year of two halves for Labour. It was making slow inroads into the demographics that normally turn out for council by-elections and were able to pile up a decent popular vote lead up until and immediately after the general election. But that counts for nothing when the electorate sharply turns on you. Which is exactly what happened after August. The Tory gains come entirely from the latter half of the year. Labour might consider a further erosion of its roots in local government a price worth paying for chucking millions of pensioners off winter fuel allowance, but the public appear to think differently.
Good news for Kemi Badenoch then. But likewise, Reform surged in the second half of the year. The year-end modest vote total underplays their momentum. I expect that this time next year Reform will have outpaced the Liberal Democrats and Greens to claim the third party status it currently enjoys in polling. Provided they're able to find enough candidates to stand in enough seats. Overall, the Lib Dems will be happy with their by-election performances. They're doing better than what the polls are suggesting and stand to do well out of Labour's woes and those Tory leaners who don't like the direction Badenoch is leading her party in. The same goes for the Greens, though the rise of Reform has depressed their vote share. But actual votes are more or less matching the polls and the upward slope in support and councillors continues. It would be nice if they were the repository of electoral discontent rather than Reform, but these are the politics we've got.
Just a couple of other notes. It seems by-election turnout is trending downwards. This is an impression rather than something backed by data, but it's worth keeping an eye on. And there's the performance of the Independents and Others too. The rise of Reform gives legends in their own council wards opportunities to become electorally successful, so I imagine their share will decline as more would-be Indies and small party people clamber aboard the bandwagon. And with more choice available through the main parties and the major minor parties, the appeals of Indies and Others could well decline. We'll see this time next year.
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