Local Council By-Elections July 2024

This month saw 240,088 votes cast in 64 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 13 council seats changed hands. For comparison with June's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Jun	+/- Jul 23	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	58	46,779	19.5%	-5.5	-9.1	807	-1
Labour	59	98,006	40.8%	+6.8	+9.9	1,661	+1
Lib Dem	56	35,475	14.8%	+0.4	+1.4	633	-3
Green	42	32,715	13.6%	+7.4	-0.1	779	+2
SNP*	1	728	0.3%	-6.4	-1.7	728	+1
PC**	0						0
Ind***	39	19,344	8.1%	-1.4	-0.6	496	-1
Other****	18	7,041	2.9%	-0.3	+0.9	391	+1

* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were five Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Freedom Alliance (178, 25), Heritage (115), Liberal (125, 58), Reform (2,027, 892, 575, 366), Scottish Family Party (53), TUSC (550, 178, 83), UKIP (148), Workers' Party (460, 300, 274), Yorkshire Party (634)

I think July 2024 is the worst by-election month ever experienced by the Conservative Party. At least in the 11 years since this site has covered these contests. Dipping below the magical 20% and getting under half of the vote received by Labour, on this occasion Reform -  standing in all of four seats - cannot be blamed for offering spoiler candidates. A terrible result that matches their baleful general election performance. They should be thankful the collapse in support didn't see a domino of seats fall to their opposition. Though superlatives should be hedged with the caveat that a lot of the seats up on the 4th were Labour councillors vacating theirs to spend time as parliamentary candidates, so the Tory vote was likely to be depressed anyway. But still.

Elsewhere, the respective performances of the Liberal Democrats and Greens are interesting. The former received its customary vote share, but unexpectedly dropped three seats. While the Greens almost managed to match their all time best performance that was set in July last year. But the real story, and one that might worry the Lib Dems, are the parties popular votes. At 35,000 off 56 candidates versus 33,000 off 42, there is a possibility that the Greens could start outperforming the Lib Dems in council by-elections in vote shares and seats won. And then from there, how long before it's challenging for third place in local government and then the big house itself?

As we enter the new parliament, it will be interesting to see how long before incumbency negatively pressures the Labour vote. Also, seeing as Reform rustled up a load of deposits for the general election whether it will start taking local party building, and therefore local elections and by-elections seriously. It's worth remembering UKIP managed to do well here between 2010 and 2016, so there is a market for these sorts of politics.

4 July
Barnet, Barnet Vale, Lab hold
Bassetlaw, Rampton, Con hold
Bedford, Wyboston, Con hold
Birmingham, Kings Norton North, Lab hold
Birmingham, Northfield, Lab hold
Brent, Queens Park, Lab hold
Brighton and Hove, Brunswick and Adelaide, Grn gain from Lab
Bristol, Horfield, Lab hold
Cheshire West & Chester, Northwich Leftwich, Lab hold
Chesterfield, Spire, Lab hold
Chesterfield, Staveley North, Lab gain from LDem
City of London, Cripplegate, Ind hold
City of London, Farringdon Within, Ind hold
Crawley, Maidenbower, Con hold
Doncaster, Town, Lab hold
Durham, Coxhoe, Lab hold
East Riding of Yorkshire, East Wolds & Coastal, Con hold
East Riding of Yorkshire, South East Holderness, Oth gain from Con
East Suffolk, Carlton Colville, Con hold
Elmbridge, Cobham & Downside, Con gain from LDem
Essex, Pitsea, Lab gain from Con
Fenland, Whitlesey South, Con hold
Gosport, Grange & Alver Valley, Lab gain from Con
Hackney, Cazenove, Lab hold
Haringey, Hornsey, Lab hold
Hounslow, Hanworth Village, Lab hold
Kingston-upon-Thames, Hook & Chessington North, LDem hold
Lambeth, Streatham Common & Vale, Lab hold
Lancaster, University, Grn gain from Lab
Lewisham, Blackheath, Lab hold
Liverpool, Broadgreen, Lab hold
Liverpool, Clubmoor East, Lab hold
Liverpool, Fazakerley North, Lab hold
Merton, Figge's Marsh, Lab hold
Merton, St Helier, Lab hold
Middlesbrough, Acklam, Lab hold
Middlesbrough, Central, Lab hold
Na h-Eileanan Siar, Na Hearadh, Ind hold
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Madeley & Betley, Con hold x2
Newham, Forest Gate North, Lab hold
Newham, Maryland, Lab hold
North Norfolk, North Walsham East, LDem hold
Preston, Lea & Larches, LDem gain from Lab
Ribble Valley, St Marys, Lab gain from LDem
St Helens, Windle, Lab hold
Sefton, Linacre, Lab hold
South Derbyshire, Hatton, Con gain from Lab
South Gloucestershire, Kingswood, Lab hold
Southend-on-Sea, Kursaal, Lab hold
Southwark, Faraday, Lab hold
Southwark, Rye Lane, Lab hold
Spelthorne, Ashford East, Con gain from Ind
Suffolk, Pakefield, Lab gain from Con
Three Rivers, Rickmansworth Town, Con hold
Tonbridge & Malling, Judd, Grn hold
Westminster, Abbey Road, Con hold
Wigan, Leigh South, Lab hold
Wirral, Liscard, Lab hold
Winchester, St Michael, LDem hold
York, Hull Road, Lab hold

18 July
Argyll & Bute, Kintyre & The Islands, SNP gain from LDem
Newham, Beckton, Lab hold
Newham, Little Ilford, Lab hold
Oxford, Marston, Grn hold

Image Credit