This month saw 26,595 votes cast in 11 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Only three council seats changed hands. For comparison with December's results, see here.
Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Dec
|
+/- Jan 23
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
10
| 7,774 |
29.2%
| -5.2 |
+4.1
|
777
|
0
|
Labour
|
11
| 7,697 |
28.9%
| +13.2 |
-14.4
| 700
|
-2
|
Lib Dem
|
11
| 7,393
|
27.8%
| -13.1 |
+21.5
|
672
|
+1
|
Green
|
8
| 1,972
|
7.4%
| +0.9
|
+0.4
|
247
|
0
|
SNP*
|
1
| 1,000 |
3.8%
| +3.8 |
+3.8
| 1,000
|
0
|
PC**
|
0
| | |
0
| |||
Ind***
|
7
| 397 |
1.5%
|
-11.7
|
57
|
+1
| |
Other****
|
6
|
1.4%
| +1.2 |
-3.3
|
60
|
0
|
* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consisted of Democratic Liberation (49), Liberal (118), Reform (54), Scottish Family Party (50), TUSC (53), UKIP (38)
January is always a funny month in council by-election land, and the opener for 2024 is no exception. The Tories dropped one to the Lib Dems but gained one in Hackney from Labour. Yes, there were "special circumstances" but that the Tories, as they approach Liz Truss polling levels, can pluck a seat from Labour in a ward they should have walked is demonstrative of the lack of enthusiasm for Keir Starmer's offerings.
And this is backed up by the Liberal Democrats' figures. Going back to when an election was last expected in a year - January 2015 - the Lib Dems, UKIP, and the SNP were all doing well. One might say, given what happened, that this suggested a lack of momentum behind Labour. Of course, that does not directly map on. Labour was not 14 to 27 points ahead in the polls the, but it underlines what I've been arguing for years: that their is no solid base of support for Keir Starmer, and that will cost him in the long run.
11th January
Brighton & Hove, South Portslade, Lab hold
Dorset, Littlemoor & Preston, Con hold
Salford, Quays, LDem hold
Tendring, Bluehouse, Ind gain from Lab
18th January
Hackney, Cazenove, Con gain from Lab
Richmond upon Thames, Hampton North, LDem gain from Con
Richmond upon Thames, Teddington, LDem hold
Sheffield, Stannington, LDem hold
Wandsworth, Tooting Broadway, Lab hold
Warwick, Warwick All Saints & Woodloes, Lab hold
25th January
Stirling, Dunblane & Bridge of Allan, Con hold
3 comments:
Phil - I know that "lack of enthusiasm for Starmer" is your thing, and there may even be something to be said for it, but you really can't use the Hackney result as "evidence" for that. You just can't.
Had the winning candidate been Labour he would still have won, had he been LibDem (as just last year) he would still have won, had he been Independent he would still have won. Hell, had he been Monster Raving Loony he would very likely have won.
It was as good an example as "voting for the person, not the party" as you are likely to get in a local byelection this year.
One might argue that if there was a genuine well of enthusiasm the good people of Hackney would have overlooked the local party's abysmal candidate and the local "celebrity" of the Tory who won. But they didn't.
Well, you can argue that - but the Tories got the odd good local byelection result "against the trend" even during Blair's peak opposition years in 1995-96. One may actually have been a gain from Labour in Hackney IIRC.
If next month's Westminster byelections are won by Labour with big swings, that also shows that "lack of enthusiasm for Starmer" isn't the be all and end all perhaps.
Post a Comment