What Might a Keir Starmer Government Look Like?

Since the all-too-brief glory days of Liz Truss's government, the Tories have lagged well behind Labour in the polls. Projections of majorities greater than anything Tony Blair enjoyed are so routine they've become mundane. Unless there's some unforeseen catastrophe, the next election is in no doubt. Labour will win a majority and the Tories can look forward to evisceration. An unexpected comeback is less wishful thinking and more a matter of delusion. But what about the replacement? While most of what Labour is promising awaits the outcome of policy consultations and manifesto drafting, has "Starmerism" revealed enough of itself to anticipate what his government might look like?

There are two themes. The first is a Starmer government will be a reforming government. The attitude to trade unionism and the unveiled plan to renovate the state indicate as much. As managers first and politicians second, Starmer's front bench are fascinated by and fixated on finding fixes to political problems. They share the exasperation of millions with the fact the state is falling to bits and its most basic functions, like issuing passports or having enough ambulances, are seemingly beyond its power. Sorting it out, creating new agencies, making the state an efficient dispenser of services, on the rare occasions Starmer talks about social justice this is pretty much what he means. It also explains how, in the NHS for example, the place of private provision can sit alongside the usual promises to hire more nurses and doctors without getting troubled by the tension between the two. It's a return of "what works", with the public defined and positioned as (passive) consumers of services.

Similarly on economics, the idea of devolving more powers to local government with a vision that's suggestive of letting a thousand Keynesian flowers bloom is about serving business. This vibes with the emerging common sense among business, and one that even Boris Johnson had to reflect with his talk of levelling up. They know support is needed following the triple blows of Brexit, Covid, and the inflation crisis. A happy consequence for Starmerism is the creation of new and potentially influential layers of bureaucrats and technocrats at local levels now every authority will have teeth, and these new graduate positions are going to owe their existence to the Labour Party. When unveiled back in December, Gordon Brown discussed different economic clusters based on local economic profiles. Stoke-on-Trent, shock, horror, is considered a centre for ceramics, for example. If councils have the financial clout to back "their" businesses, the thinking goes that untapped potential will get unlocked and regional inequalities start eroding away. As such, there's no need for direct state intervention to mitigate inequalities - regulated and supported markets overseen by councils with strategic direction provided by the state will do the job instead.

But a Starmer government would also be an authoritarian government. Starmer has basically banned oppositional positions on NATO and the Israeli occupation of Palestine from the parliamentary party, stood by when spy cops legislation went through the Commons, has indicated his support for the government on criminalising "disruptive" protest, and attacks the Tories for not being efficient in dealing with refugee small boats in the Channel. We see Starmer's approach to change the Labour Party. It wasn't just about putting the right back in charge, but treating the party as an administrative machine slaved to a set of norms around "decency", political expectations on candidates, and forcing constituency parties to kowtow to appointed officialdom. As Starmer routinely lies about his record, lies about his predecessor, and lied to the members when he ran his leadership campaign, there's no reason to believe dishonesty won't be a feature of his government either. Though this is likely to be bad faith attacks on opponents and calumny tied to political objectives rather than personal enrichment and cronyism, as per Johnson's case. Anyone thinking Starmer is going to undertake electoral reform, reverse the civil liberties attacks of the last 40 years, challenge the power of the press, and restore access to the judicial system denied by savage cuts to legal aid are as blinkered as those few Tories anticipating a fifth term in office.

The contours of Starmerism are different to decaying Toryism. Because Starmer seeks to incorporate the labour movement into his modernisation project, there are opportunities for us to push, break, and remould politics on our terms. His project is not without risk for him. After all, every government regardless of political colouration opens up its own opportunities. But we need to be crystal clear. Getting the Tories out remains the immediate political objective, but that doesn't mean Keir Starmer is preparing a bed of roses for us post-election.

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