Party | Number of Candidates | Total Vote | % | +/- Q4 | +/- Q1 2017 | Average | +/- Seats |
Conservative | 65 | 42,388 | 38.3% | +5.9% | +10.3% | 652 | -4 |
Labour | 63 | 33,051 | 29.9% | -4.8% | +4.5% | 525 | 0 |
LibDem | 49 | 17,122 | 15.5% | -2.7% | -6.2% | 349 | +6 |
UKIP | 16 | 1,491 | 1.3% | -1.3% | -8.4% | 93 | -2 |
Green | 39 | 3,983 | 3.6% | +0.4% | -0.3% | 102 | 0 |
SNP* | 4 | 4,418 | 4.0% | +0.8% | +1.4% | 1,106 | +1 |
PC | 0 | 0 | |||||
Ind*** | 31 | 6,441 | 5.8% | +1.4% | +2.9% | 208 | -2 |
Other**** | 5 | 1,715 | 1.6% | +0.7% | -4.2% | 343 | +1 |
* There were four by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were six Independent clashes
**** Others this quarter consisted of Blue Revolution (13), Elvis Bus Pass (41), Ewell Residents (398), Farnworth and Keasley First (1,204), and Something New (59).
Chillax Labour people. The score managed by the Conservatives and Labour doesn't mean we've clambered into the TARDIS and taken ourselves back to this time last year. You'll remember the double-point poll leads and the sense Theresa May could do no wrong. What an analysis does show (if you go and look at the individual monthly totals) that we have spent an awful lot of time in natural Tory territory this quarter. And as per the polarisation we've seen since last year's general election results, both the main parties are miles ahead of everyone else. They're up on Q1 2017 at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, Others and, to a much lesser extent, the Greens.
Without knowing what's on the board (Miss Ford) for the next three months a prediction is hard to venture. Continued polarisation, yes. LibDems doing better than their national polling figures, yes. And the death spiral of UKIP carrying on like the good fellow it is? Undoubtedly.
