The Clear Blue Water Strategy

The media has told us there was a buzz around Conservative Party conference. Heaven knows why. Kemi Badenoch is riding a wave of positive press for keeping her party together, and the forced consensus is that Reform are finished. You can even pretend this is the case, as long as you don't look at the polls. Badenoch's leader's speech was an easy job then - give the press and political comment enough to meet their expectations and keep the hype train chugging along. And she gave them what they wanted.

If you like, what Badenoch ventured in this speech was something she's kept at arm's length up until now: conservatism. Out was the Tory leader who indulges nativist and hierarchy-of-cultures posturing, and instead she groped toward the rhetorical mean. With leadership on the right against the rising tide of racism having devolved to the likes of Tim Stanley and Jacob Rees-Mogg, Badenoch was keen to contrast her views on identity and nationality with the will-say-anything-for-attention idiocies of Suella Braverman. She said,

I don’t want to live in a country run by people who threaten journalists, call veterans traitors and debate whether my mixed-race children are English. I don’t want to explain to my son when we’re watching our brilliant England team play football that some people don’t think our black players are English. I remember back in the day when Ian Wright and John Barnes were playing, nobody was questioning whether they were English. We certainly didn’t have sitting MPs questioning whether they were English. We must not let these people take us backwards. That is not the country we are. Reform MPs are openly questioning people’s identity. They are not like us; we are not like them. We are different. We are the Conservative Party.

A restatement of anti-racist norms are welcome, but we'll see how long that lasts.

Up until now, the Tory strategy for two years has been consolidate and hold. An approach long forecast around these parts while establishment commentators were still cooing about a Boris Johnson decade. I.e. Following devastating defeat, the Tories would retreat by galloping to the right to keep hold of what they have by gluing their core together with the adhesive of first principles. Unfortunately for them, a simple re-run of the 1997-2005 period was made unavailable by the rise of Reform. So what we had was, in practical terms, an abandonment of Toryism for the authoritarianism and extremism of the further-right. However, never one to go against the Westminster grain Badenoch is on board with its recent conclusion that Nigel Farage is over. So apart from admonishing Reform for their nativism and a few swipes at the chaotic and corrupt character of the party, Badenoch's speech pivoted away from trying to out-right the extreme right to a clear blue water strategy. That is the belief they can claw lost ground directly back from Labour with something resembling a traditional Tory programme, and not worry so much about the right flank. Hence big ticket items like scrapping inheritance tax on people's homes up to £1m. Badenoch described this as relief for "middle class families". Other goodies were extending free childcare to those on incomes over £100,000/year, building new prisons, cutting employers' National Insurance contributions for young workers, taking the shears to red tape, scrapping environmental protections, more money for bombs and bullets, it's the same old Tory pitch. And compare this with her comments about Andy Burnham, whom she accused of "facing the past", damned him for serving in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet, was guilty of, horrors, socialism; and mocked him as the "Paddington Bear Prime Minister". What, he likes marmalade?

Her knockabout and Punch & Judy style made for a strong contrast with Burnham's speech, geared as it was around conciliation and cooperation with a strong flavour of Labourism. A tone those she's seeking to influence, reportedly middle class Liberal Democrat and Labour supporters, are likely to take a negative note of. But, really, is this a pitch likely to peel them away from their current affiliations? There was no recognition of the problems facing the country, nor any understanding of how/why Tory support collapsed, let alone addressing its continued long-term decline. This was a blue water speech, yes, but one very much framed by the priorities and stakes of the Westminster/lobby/right-wing media complex. As such, Badenoch can campaign on these priorities as much as she likes. Undoubtedly, the Tory leader will be applauded for doing so. But that's not the same thing as posing Labour a credible threat.

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