Tuesday, 30 September 2025

Keir Starmer's Declaration of War

"If you say or imply that people cannot be English or British because of the colour of their skin, that mixed-heritage families owe you an explanation... If you say that they should now be deported, then mark my words - we will fight you with everything we have". After a summer of more or less excusing fascist-organised protests against refugees, Keir Starmer's Labour conference speech has demonstrated a rediscovery of anti-racist principles. He attacked Nigel Farage, not always by name, for spivving about the United States and making money from talking the country down. He asked his audience if they could recall a time when Reform said anything positive about or praised British achievements? This was before reeling off examples of everyday people contributing to their community, laying to rest the much misused broken Britain rhetoric. Defences of multiculturalism were applauded. Attacks on Farage's plan to deport our neighbours raised cheers. Hope got a look-in, happy vibes, and the promise of a super soaraway future. Change ... with the promise of something better.

Most of what's left of the Labour Party would have lapped up Starmer's speech. It was a morale booster that offered a rare thing as Labourism goes: political clarity. He set out what Labour is against, which is the division Reform thrives upon. And for good measure, the "extremes ... of the left" were lumped in with them too. Farage was labelled directly and unambiguously as Labour's "enemy". There was also the concession that calling people racist was not enough. In his usual, wooden-topped way Starmer argued that economic growth, the "pound in the pocket" was the best antidote to the far right. That's why it's Labour's top priority. As such, he issued a rallying cry of sorts, a message directed at his own narrow divided base among the professional/managerial caste, and one that might placate the disgruntled who have had their heads turned by Andy Burnham.

Number 10 will be pleased with the response they've drawn from Farage. He has accused Starmer of "descending into the gutter" and, playing the poor little right-winger card, said "this language will incite and encourage the radical Left, I’m thinking of Antifa and other organisations like that. It directly threatens the safety of our elected officials and our campaigners." The worst Reform representatives and activists have had to put up with are people replying to their bullshit in kind. What are you supposed to do in the kitchen if it gets too hot, Nigel?

The obvious problem with Starmer's new tough rhetoric is that's all it is. His speech talks about the concerns working class people have about immigration, and how one woman showed him photos of her at her Indian neighbour's wedding before complaining about the young men from overseas who sat on her wall and spat in the street. There's a world of difference between such concerns that and the rubbish Farage is peddling, he said. But what is his own government doing? Straight out of the playbook that saw Priti Patel/Suella Braverman cynically front up anti-immigration politics, but avoiding their over-the-top incendiary rhetoric, the new home secretary Shabana Mahmood has extended the qualification period for indefinite leave to remain, and wants its confirmation contingent on undertaking voluntary work. This straight away casts migrants as problem people who have to be forced through a punitive civilising process before they're accepted by this country. And who, exactly, benefits from this framing? Certainly not a Labour Party that claims to be "against division". If Starmer and Mahmood were really serious about stopping the boats instead of cultivating their own scapegoats, the safe routes for refugees would have been expanded by now, and an asylum processing centre in Calais be up and running.

Then there is "delivery". Starmer rightly slammed the complacency of the Tories and their 14 years of failure. But lest we forget, while they are responsible for the choices they made, every policy decision was filtered through a class war frame. I.e. How can this divide people up? How can this create new folk devils? How can this keep people from lifting their eyes to the horizon? After the stock markets cratered, the Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition used the moment to turn a crisis of capital into a crisis of public finances. Their aim was to offload the bail out costs onto labour, thereby undoing further the post-war settlement and strengthening business at our expense. During and after the Covid crisis, their politics was a management of expectations, a collective effort to close off aspirations raised by the huge expansion of state capacity during the pandemic's acute phase. Now Labour are masters of the state, their approach to governing and governance isn't much different. Though for them, it's the hauntology of Corbynism that must be dispelled. Starmer and Reeves want to manage the class politics, and therefore capping the expectations of the hoi polloi is of paramount concern. Hence thimblefuls of gruels are heralded as lavish banquets.

In practice, if Starmer wants to leverage his record in government in his offensive against Reform, his achievements are like so many imaginary battalions pushed around a map. Breakfast clubs and GDP stats versus the lived experience of the cost of living crisis, and a situation-fitting narrative of grievance and scapegoating cranked up by a media-saturated charlatan. All of a sudden Starmer's war declaration looks more like The Mouse that Roared. Though unlike that old flick this ending tends toward tragedy, not farce.

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Monday, 29 September 2025

Vapid by Her Own Empty Standards

What was the point of Rachel Reeves's speech? Okay, it's Labour Party conference so it's expected that the chancellor/shadow chancellor should have a turn in the spotlight. But that doesn't let her off the hook for saying nothing. Reeves isn't normally wordless, and in the past she has "borrowed" other people's when dead air needs to be filled. Though for someone desperate to throw shapes proving she's a bone fide wonkish technocrat and not a chancer who misrepresented her career history, Reeves's address was vapid by her own empty standards.

You can measure how much trouble this government is in by their invocations of Liz Truss. So naturally, her happy time in office merited a mention. In fact, curiously so considering how absent the Tories are from mainstream political discourse these days, Reeves kept spinning the old record of "don't let anyone tell you there's no difference between a Labour government and a Tory government". Desperate stuff. There was also an attack on those who might dispense with her fiscal rules, which she venerates as if a child of her genius. Her credibility on this issue - with whom exactly? - might have been aimed at Andy Burnham, who late last week shockingly suggested that the bond markets shouldn't be the be-all and end-all of economic management. But with Zack Polanski's eco-populism making waves on social media, and the return of Corbynism, it might easily have been aimed at them too.

On her achievements, school breakfast clubs got a mention. Which is the government's new get-out-of-jail-free card in the manner Sure Start centres used to excuse New Labour's record in office. To be honest, any normal person would be embarrassed offering that up after taking money off pensioners, attacking the disabled, declaring war on trans people, and guaranteeing arms shipments and military intelligence to a military undertaking a genocide.

In the last fortnight, the Labour leadership have discovered it's a good idea to criticise Reform. Which Reeves duly did. Nigel Farage is the "single greatest threat to the way of life and to the living standards of working people." Who, apart from Farage aficionados would disagree? They "are not on the side of working people" she said. Yes, but neither is Labour - unless by "working people" the chancellor meant Peter Thiel, Euan Blair, etcetera ad nauseam. And if they want to see Farage off, it's going to require something more than just saying he's racist. Delivery, delivery, delivery is supposed to switch off the Reform-curious. Socialism is the language of priorities, right? It's a good job Reeves had a policy broadside ready to blow Farage out of the water. She cheerily reeled off new forced work placement schemes for young unemployed people, promised more Covid fraud investigators, and announced enough money to fund an extra shelf of books in every school. An agenda whose ambition future historians of Labourism can only marvel at. Meanwhile, Farage must have spent the day pinching himself.

Reeves is clearly living her best life. She's the first female chancellor in history, in case you haven't heard her say so. But despite this accolade, she will always be remembered as the politician whose alacrity for cruelty sent her party's polling into a death spiral within a month of winning a landslide. Still, the consequences of her actions are for other people to bear, be they at the sharp end of her policies or current and future Labour activists and politicians that have to clean up after her mess.

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Sunday, 28 September 2025

The Banality of Morgan McSweeney

I see there was a strange effort to rehabilitate Labour Together, the right wing think tank/pressure group set up by Morgan McSweeney as his vehicle to organise against Jeremy Corbyn and the left. It's black and white in the book he co-wrote with Gabriel Pogrund and Patrick Maguire. Yet, in Sienna Rodgers's piece for PoliticsHome, we hear claims this was not the case at all.

Labour Together was set up as a fluffy broad front, and not asan overtly factional vehicle for the right as (apparently) portrayed. We're reminded that "Lisa Nandy – Starmer’s leadership rival – was a Labour Together director. Rachel Reeves, Shabana Mahmood, Wes Streeting, Steve Reed and Bridget Phillipson partook, yet so did Jon Cruddas, Jim McMahon, Ed Miliband and Lucy Powell." These characters all went their separate ways when the leadership contest began. Keir Starmer, for his part, was nowhere to be seen where Labour Together was concerned. Rodgers goes on to quote Neal Lawson, chair of Compass and one of the main movers behind the new Mainstream initiative, as labelling Labour Together as the most cynical political operation he's ever witnessed. It looked open and welcoming, but it only had factionalism in mind. This invites an anonymous response that the levels of bad faith involved was "not feasible". Has this person spent any time in politics? "McSweeney is simply a talented organiser who was genuinely interested in bridge-building before figures such as Peter Mandelson reshaped his thinking."

Naivete or yet more dishonesty? The argument against this credulous drivel is, at that time, 20 years working in and around the Labour right, McSweeney's chastening experience as the organiser of Liz Kendall's openly Blairite leadership campaign in 2015 amply demonstrates that he was the man he is today then. We know from multiple accounts, not just the Pogrund and Maguire, that he concluded underhanded methods were the only way Labour could be returned to its rightful owners. The pluralism of Labour Together was only part of the deception. It drew in different strands because, by his own admission, at launch he had no idea who the standard bearer for the right was going to be. Indeed, in this initial period, for McSweeney even a soft left figure might have fit the bill. Like Lisa Nandy who was considered as such at that point. However, by the time of Labour's defeat Starmer had presented himself as a figure that could be steered, and the rest, as they say, is history.

I know the illusio of politics presents itself as a public service, politicians are motivated as such, and that disagreements arise from the tension between different traditions and ideas. But once politics is apprehended for what it is, i.e. the clash of contradictory and often antagonistic interests that are variously contained and constrained - and sometimes not - by the constitutional rules of the game, the sorts of skulduggery McSweeney has pulled off is entirely explicable. It is not a stretch to believe industrial scale lying and deception takes place. Indeed, one only needs to open a newspaper and glance at the politics coverage to know this is the case. Rather, the behaviour of the Prime Minister's right hand man in the Labour Party is simultaneously outrageous and utterly banal.

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Saturday, 27 September 2025

Quarter Three By-Election Results 2025

This quarter 137,292 votes were cast in 70 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 38 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter Two's results here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- Q2
+/- Q3 24
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
          71
22,763
    16.6%
   -1.4
      -3.6
   321
    -7
Labour
          63
23,511
    17.1%
  +0.0
    -21.0
   373
  -17
Lib Dem
          59
23,259
    16.9%
   -4.2
     +2.1
   394
   +4
Reform
          69
36,875
    26.9%
  +2.0
   +24.4
   534
 +19
Green
          58
13,923
    10.1%
   -0.6
      -3.0
   240
   +1
SNP*
           3
 1,705
     1.2%
  +0.0
      -0.3
   568
    -1
PC**
           9
 3,212
     2.3%
  +2.0
     +2.1
   357
     0
Ind***
          33
10,875
     7.9%
  +2.9
      -0.6
   330
   +2
Other****
          17
  1,169
     0.9%
   -0.8
      -0.4
    69
    -1


* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were 10 by-elections in Wales
*** There were four Independent clashes
**** Others this month were Abolish Holyrood (27), Brixtowe Alliance (275), Communist Party of Britain (9), Gwlad (6), Pirate Party (11), Propel (327, 63), Residents of Wilmslow (215), SDP (13, 11), TUSC (29, 26, 1), UKIP (5),Vectis Party (46), Workers' Party (15), Yorkshire Party (100)

I suppose the sole consolation Labour can take from this set of results is that their popular vote share appears to have hit a floor, and that perhaps Reform are now bobbing about their ceiling. There's little point going back over the arguments about the hows and whys Keir Starmer has chosen to throw his voting coalition to the winds, and I very much doubt their latest wheeze - that digital ID will combat immigration - are going to tempt back that sliver of Labour-Reform switchers.

As for the others, the quarter hasn't been kind to the Conservatives either. While their decline is partly masked by the low ebb they were at following the election, without having government office it's hard to see how they can change their fortunes. The Lib Dems are carrying on doing the Lib Dem thing, and the Greens are settling around the 10% mark with an extra councillor to shout about.

Unless something comes along that changes the dial, I predict that December's reflection will come to conclusions pretty much the same as this one: Reform carries all before, and the two main parties are floundering.

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Friday, 26 September 2025

Local Council By-Elections September 2025

This month saw 35,410 votes cast in 17 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 11 council seats changed hands. For comparison with August's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- Aug
+/- Sep 24
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
          17
 5,409
    15.3%
  +1,3
      -7.7
   318
    -1
Labour
          16
 5,113
    14.4%
   -6.7
    -14.3
   320
    -7
Lib Dem
          15
 5,752
    16.2%
  +0.8
     +0.6
   383
   +2
Reform
          17
 9,181
    25.9%
  +0.1
   +20.8
   540
   +6
Green
          15
 4,860
    13.7%
  +5.1
     +1.8
   324
     0
SNP*
           2
   563
     1.6%
   -1.7
      -2.8
   282
    -1
PC**
           2
   880
     2.5%
   -0.8
     +2.3
   440
     0
Ind***
           8
 3,374
     9.5%
  +3.0
      -0.6
   422
   +2
Other****
           2
   278
     0.8%
  -1.2
      -0.2
   139
    -1


* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There were two by-elections in Wales
*** There was one independent clash this month
**** Others in September consisted of Propel (63) and Residents of Wilmslow (215)

Another month, another crushing victory for Reform. The electorate are shaking off Labour councillors like fleas, to borrow a phrase. Reform only has to appear on the ballot paper and support for the government evaporates. You can understand why naive types might think Reform poses a threat to Labour particularly. But again, though Keir Starmer is overseeing the dispersal of Labour's coalition - a process he embarked on shortly after becoming leader - Reform tend to poll better among older voters, and as we've seen in the past this group is more likely to turn out and vote at council by-elections, as well as other types of election. So these figures do flatter Reform somewhat and cast Labour into deeper shadow than might be the case.

Still, an appalling set of results for the two main parties. A phrase we might not get to use for much longer. The Liberal Democrats are polling in and around their usual levels, and if memory serves this is the joint highest by-elections vote share enjoyed by the Greens. The Polanski bounce in effect, you might say.

There are over 30 by-elections scheduled for October, so it's going to be a busy month. Can the Tories and Labour defend their position for once? Will the Lib Dems and Greens make up moe ground? Or, fittingly for Hallowe'en month, will Farage be sitting pretty by the end?

4 September
Luton, Stopsley, LDem hold

11 September
Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole, Talbot & Branksome, LDem gain from Con
Central Bedfordshire, Stotfold, Ref gain from Lab
Cheshire East, Wilmslow Lacey Green, Con gain from Oth
Vale of Glamorgan, Illtyd, Ref gain from Lab
Walsall, Pelsall, Ref gain from Con
West Suffolk, Newmarket East, Ref gain from Lab

18 September
Brighton & Hove, Queen's Park, Grn gain from Lab
Cardiff, Trowbridge, Ref gain from Lab
Newham, Plaistow South, Ind gain from Lab
Warwick, Kenilworth Park Hill, Grn hold
Warwick, Leamington Clarendon, Lab hold

24 September
Breckland, Thetford Castle, Ref gain from Lab

25 September
Ashford, Rolvenden & Tenterden West, Grn hold
Highland, Caol & Mallaig, Ind gain from Grn
Highland, Tain & Easter Ross, LDem gain from SNP
Manchester, Woodhouse Park, Grn hold

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